Members of the US House of the Representatives from these 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America have it easy. They are almost guaranteed a trip to Washington DC on the taxpayers’ dime.
In theory, all 435 congressional district should be equal in terms of population, and on the surface, they are, at least when headcount is concerned. However, the demographics of those districts can vary wildly, and that is where parties seek their chance to secure safe havens for their candidates, where their win will be all but guaranteed. It all started with Elbridge Gerry, Governor of Massachusetts in 1812. Governor decided to redo congressional districts’ (and consequently voters distribution) borders to ensure his party’s success in the upcoming election by giving it some easy congressional seats. Newspapers quickly got wind of his intentions and publish a caricature, claiming that the Governor’s new map looks like a salamander. Combined with his last name, this gave us the term gerrymandering.
holbox/Shutterstock.com
At first, gerrymandering was done to create districts where a party would easily win a congressional seat. The method evolved and today it is employed by creating pockets of voters that will vote for the opposition. By giving them one easy win, gerrymandering party eliminated opposition voters from the neighboring districts, thus securing several easy seats for themselves.
From the beginning, gerrymandering was heavily frowned upon and conducted in utmost secrecy. But lately, it has become almost acceptable practice, with parties even publishing their plans for it. This should top the list of the biggest political scandals of all time.
We witnessed the best illustration of how powerful gerrymandering is at the 2014 congress election. Politico discovered that in seven states in which Republicans were in charge of drawing the districts’ boundaries, the results were pretty close, 16.7 million for the GOP and 16.3 million for the Democrats. It would be reasonable to expect that 107 congressional seats on the table would be divided almost by the middle. In reality, thanks to the magic of gerrymandering, Republicans took 73 seats, opposed to the Democrats’ 34. With just a hair above 50% of voters, the GOP claimed whopping 68% of congress seats.
If you think only Republicans dabble in gerrymandering, you have obviously never been to Maryland. In the 2014 elections, Democrats won 57.44% of voters, while Republicans got 41.36% in the entire state. Out of 8 representatives Maryland sends to Congress, 7 were Democrats, in sharp contrast to the popular vote. Several changes in the law have been proposed to alleviate the consequences of partisan gerrymandering, but none have been passed yet.
Out of 11 easiest congressional districts on our list, 3 are from North Caroline, 2 each from Maryland and Florida, while the remaining four are located in Ohio, Texas, Louisiana and New York.
In order to determine the easiest congressional seats to win, we combine two parameters. We started with an Azavea White Paper on the least compact congressional districts in America. This is, of course, a euphemism for the most gerrymandered district and states in America. Azavea researchers used a combination of several methods to come up with this list, namely Polsby-Popper, Schwartzberg Convex Hull, and Reock, to avoid things like coastlines skewing the metrics and proclaiming a district gerrymandered simply because of its natural features. These four methods combined help eliminate such worries, revealing gerrymandering in all its glory. Additional points were given for the percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections. You’ll notice that most candidates won by a wide margin, often raking in more than 60% of the vote, with some going into mid-seventies. There are some exceptions, but in general, these are 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America, provided you can get your party’s nomination. Primaries are where the real fight is, and general elections in these districts are viewed as simply a formality.
11. North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district – NC-3
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 52.36
The current incumbent is Walter B. Jones, who has been representing the district since 1995. Congressman Jones had a close race in the Republican primaries, but after he secured his party’s nomination, he swept the floor with his opponent from the Democratic Party.
10. New York’s 10th congressional district – NY-10
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 64.98
Jerrold Nadler has been representing the 10th congressional district since 2012. Before that, he has been the representative for the 8th congressional district. The current 10th district was at the time entirely in Brooklyn, and now it is formed from the parts of both Manhattan and Brooklyn. Confused yet?
9. Maryland’s 6th congressional district – MD6
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 49.7
Maryland’s 6th congressional district was created in 2011 by Gov. Martin O’Malley (D), by adding few democrat-heavy communities to other ways rural district, held by the Republicans. The effect was almost instantaneous and in 2012 incumbent Republican representative Roscoe G. Bartlett lost or Democrat John Delaney by almost 20% margin. He didn’t fare so well in 2014 when he barely held to his seat with 49.7% opposed to his opponent’s 48.2.
8. Florida’s 22nd congressional district – FL-22
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 58
Lois Frankel (D) managed to snatch 22nd congressional district from the Republican Party’s candidate Adam Hasner in the 2012 election. She held to her seat in even more convincingly in 2014. The future is, however, uncertain since Florida’s Supreme Court ordered that five Florida’s congressional districts be redrawn, 22nd among them, declaring the Republican made division unconstitutional in 2015.
7. Louisiana’s 2nd congressional district – LA-2
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 55.2
Except for a short spell in the 2009-2011 term where Republican represented it, Louisiana’s 2nd congressional district that ranks 7th in our list of easiest congressional seats to win in America has been sending Democrats to Congress for more than a hundred years. It is considered one of the strongest Democratic Party bastions in the country.
6. North Carolina’s 4th congressional district – NC-4
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 74.47
David Price has been representing North Carolina’s 4th congressional district that ranks 6th in our list of easiest congressional seats to win in America, since 1997. Before that, he also served three terms, but lost the 1994 election.
5.Texas’s 35th congressional district – TX-35
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 62.48
Up next in our list of easiest congressional seats to win in America is Texas’s 35th congressional district that was created by the Republicans in an effort to create a Hispanic-dominated district between Austin and San Antonio. At the same time, Republicans in the state legislature turned 25th district from a strongly Democratic seat into a Republican one, forcing its incumbent representative Lloyd Doggett to switch districts. He did that successfully and managed to secure Democratic primaries in the 35th district and subsequently win the election. As if being a Democrat in Texas wasn’t hard enough…
4. Ohio’s 9th congressional district – OH-9
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 67.74
Number four on our list of 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America is Ohio’s 9th congressional district or as it is affectionately known Mistake by the Lake. One glance at the map will tell you all you need to know about Ohio’s 9th. It was created in its current form in 2010, by incorporating parts of another Democratic district, the 10th, into it. Seeing the writing on the wall, a long-standing representative of the 10th, Dennis Kucinich, tried to secure the nomination in the newly created 9th district, but lost to incumbent Marcy Kaptur, who represents the Ohio 9th since 1998. Kucinich, who served in Congress since 1997 retired from politics after his defeat.
3. Maryland’s 3rd congressional district – MD-3
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 66.8
Crazy quilt, blood splatter from a crime scene, broken-winged pterodactyl, lying prostrate across the center of the state, are just some of the names Maryland’s 3rd congressional district that ranks 3rd in our list of easiest congressional seats to win in America, has been called over the years. Perhaps the best solution for the situation was proposed by the DCist, suggesting to stop using the word gerrymander and change it to Marymander instead. Maryland’s 3rd congressional district often called the ugliest district in the country, is just the pinnacle of decades of gerrymandering in Maryland. Even the Democrats are condemning the artificial district boundaries, calling for a more natural distribution, which is a sign of hope.
2. Florida’s 5th congressional district – FL-5
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 65.47
Similar to the other Florida’s districts that have been subjects of Florida’s Supreme Court ruling in 2015, the fate of the 5th is unclear. One of the most absurd-looking districts in the country has been drawn to include heavy African-American majority. The new 5th, which will be used for the first time in the 2016 election is located in Tallahassee but should remain Democratic, due to its large African-American majority. And now, let’s see the number one in our list of easiest congressional seats to win in America.
1. North Carolina’s 12th congressional district – NC-12
Percentage of the voters that voted for the winner in the last elections: 75.35
Alma Adams replaced Mel Watt in a 2014 special election after his resignation as the representative for the North Carolina’s 12th congressional district. Adams reelection, together with all other representatives’ from North Carolina, has been brought into question by the Federal court ruling in February, banning all elections in districts 1 and 12 until new maps are drawn. Depending on the result, North Carolina’s 12th congressional district could easily lose its top spot among 11 easiest congressional seats to win in America.
