Bridgewater’s Dalio Sees Trump Policies To Be “Broadly Positive” On US (Reuters)
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would have a “broadly positive” effect on the U.S. economy and that bond prices likely made a “30-year top”. “There is a good chance that we are at one of those major reversals that last a decade,” Dalio said in a LinkedIn post, likening the magnitude of possible changes to the shift from the 1960s period of non-inflationary growth to the 1970s decade of stagflation, or the 1980s shift to disinflationary strong growth. Donald Trump’s stunning victory for the White House wiped out more than $1 trillion across global bond markets worldwide last week on bets that plans under a Trump administration would boost business investments and spending while firing up inflation.
The State of Bill Ackman’s Union (BloombergGadfly)
Bill Ackman has had quite the year. He turned 50, lost a couple billion dollars and wagered another billion on burritos. Then, of course, there was this feature in Vanity Fair contemplating whether he’s toast. But Ackman’s still feeling good, especially now that he’s had a swig of the Donald Trump Kool-Aid. Despite his reservations earlier this year, Ackman now sees the president-elect as an activist investor of sorts — not unlike himself — here to turn around the “under-managed” business that is America.”I think it’s very good for the companies that we own. We’re long America. I have John Oliver to take care of Herbalife. I have Donald Trump to take care of the rest of the portfolio.”
Ellington’s Vranos: Invest In People, Not Companies (Reuters)
Michael Vranos, chief executive officer of $6 billion fixed income investor Ellington Management Group, says it is much better to invest in loans taken out by individuals than by companies. “We have strong evidence to believe that the balance sheet of a consumer … is much stronger than the balance sheet of a corporation,” Vranos said at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit in New York on Tuesday. The average U.S. homeowner is “on pretty strong footing” because of low debt, equity in the value of his or her property, and relatively strong employment rates, he said. That means, according to Vranos, that homeowners will pay off their debts, therefore benefiting securities tied to mortgages, credit cards and other consumer loans.
Lansdowne Trims Glencore Short To $450 Million After Rally (Bloomberg)
Lansdowne Partners, one of Europe’s largest hedge fund firms, is trimming its bet against Glencore Plc after shares of the Swiss commodities trader tripled this year. The fund, which still holds the biggest short bet on Glencore, bought back shares over two days last week, reducing its short holding to 0.89 percent from 1.2 percent, according to regulatory filings. It’s the first change to the bearish position since July. The market value of the bet is currently $452.52 million, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Lansdowne is Glencore’s last remaining major short seller in the U.K., which requires investors to disclose short positions at 0.5 percent or higher. The commodities collapse of 2015 and plunge in Glencore shares drew bearish wagers from funds including Passport Capital, Viking Global Investors and Discovery Capital Management, which have since pulled back as the shares recovered.
Steven Cohen’s Point72 Is Hiring In Singapore And Upbeat On Asia Opportunities (CNBC)
Steven Cohen‘s family office Point72 is bullish on Asia. At least in terms of hiring new talent, that is. The asset manager, which manages the hedge fund billionaire’s personal fortune as well as those of some employees, opened a new office in Singapore this week that can seat up to 60 employees. It’s a considerable expansion from Point72’s launch in Singapore in 2009 with just six staff. The firm has more than 1,000 employees globally and $11 billion in assets under management. But it can’t accept outside investments in the wake of Cohen’s January settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in which the former SAC Capital Advisors boss agreed not to supervise funds that manage money until 2018.
Oi Creditors Split Off As Bankruptcy Fights Deepen (Bloomberg)
A group of bondholders negotiating with bankrupt Oi SA has fractured, complicating efforts to ease the Brazilian phone giant’s $19 billion debt burden. The split includes Ken Griffin’s Citadel hedge fund firm, which joined a group that already counts Mark Brodsky’s Aurelius Capital Management among its members, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. Aurelius had been trying to form a separate faction and talks have been held with restructuring advisers including Brasil Plural SA Banco Multiplo, the people said.
Dodd-Frank Easing May Herald More Lending For Banks (Reuters)
Deregulation may not mean the death knell of Dodd-Frank, yet it may help lenders do more of what their name implies: lend. That is the message from investors on the first day of the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit, despite U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to reduce regulations that he believes inhibit banks from profiting. Trump’s successful White House run has fueled a big rally in bank stocks, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index .BKX, comprised of the nation’s largest commercial and regional banks, up 13.6 percent in just four trading days following the election. “We don’t believe he does away with Dodd-Frank … but he eases off on some of the regulatory restraints that have been hog-tying the banks,” said Bruce Richards, chief executive of Marathon Asset Management in New York, a hedge fund firm overseeing $13 billion.
Oil Trader Andurand Says OPEC Cut Likely, $70 In Sight For 2017 (Bloomberg)
Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand says OPEC is still likely to agree on an output freeze this month and prompt a sharp rally in oil prices, despite disputes among its members. The years-long supply glut that hammered oil prices is gone with no sign that production will grow next year, Andurand said in a note to investors obtained by Bloomberg News. The founder Andurand Capital Management, which oversees $1.4 billion in its main strategy, put the chance of an agreement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at 70 percent. “History has demonstrated that OPEC typically never reaches an agreement before the headlines,” wrote Andurand, who won big by predicting the oil market’s downturn in 2014.
