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Hedge Fund News: Ray Dalio, Bill Ackman, Michael Vranos

Bridgewater’s Dalio Sees Trump Policies To Be “Broadly Positive” On US (Reuters)
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said President-elect Donald Trump’s policies would have a “broadly positive” effect on the U.S. economy and that bond prices likely made a “30-year top”. “There is a good chance that we are at one of those major reversals that last a decade,” Dalio said in a LinkedIn post, likening the magnitude of possible changes to the shift from the 1960s period of non-inflationary growth to the 1970s decade of stagflation, or the 1980s shift to disinflationary strong growth. Donald Trump’s stunning victory for the White House wiped out more than $1 trillion across global bond markets worldwide last week on bets that plans under a Trump administration would boost business investments and spending while firing up inflation.


The State of Bill Ackman’s Union (BloombergGadfly)
Bill Ackman has had quite the year. He turned 50, lost a couple billion dollars and wagered another billion on burritos. Then, of course, there was this feature in Vanity Fair contemplating whether he’s toast. But Ackman’s still feeling good, especially now that he’s had a swig of the Donald Trump Kool-Aid. Despite his reservations earlier this year, Ackman now sees the president-elect as an activist investor of sorts — not unlike himself — here to turn around the “under-managed” business that is America.”I think it’s very good for the companies that we own. We’re long America. I have John Oliver to take care of Herbalife. I have Donald Trump to take care of the rest of the portfolio.”

Ellington’s Vranos: Invest In People, Not Companies (Reuters)
Michael Vranos, chief executive officer of $6 billion fixed income investor Ellington Management Group, says it is much better to invest in loans taken out by individuals than by companies. “We have strong evidence to believe that the balance sheet of a consumer … is much stronger than the balance sheet of a corporation,” Vranos said at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit in New York on Tuesday. The average U.S. homeowner is “on pretty strong footing” because of low debt, equity in the value of his or her property, and relatively strong employment rates, he said. That means, according to Vranos, that homeowners will pay off their debts, therefore benefiting securities tied to mortgages, credit cards and other consumer loans.

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