Copper is heading toward a supply crunch, and the world cannot fix it quickly. BloombergNEF’s latest metals outlook says the copper market could slip into deficit as soon as 2028, as producers struggle to replace the output of mines that are wearing out. In plain terms, the outlook describes a market where fewer tons come out of the ground each year while electrified transport and other uses keep pulling more in.
The harder part is the timing. A new copper mine takes about 17 years on average to develop, according to the report, so the supply that would ease a shortage has to be started long before the shortage arrives. That lead time shapes everything else in the outlook: the deficit, the investment bill and the date when the gap might close are all measured in years, not quarters.
A Deficit That Could Start in 2028
The outlook, released last month, estimates that about $332 billion of new mine capital is needed to head off a supply shock. Without that spending, BloombergNEF projects a cumulative shortfall of 20 million metric tons by 2050.
Supply is the weaker side of the balance. BloombergNEF estimates total mined supply could fall 14.5% to 25.7 million tons by 2050, from 30 million tons in 2026. Chile’s output is forecast to slide from 5.8 million tons this year to 4.8 million tons by 2050, even as its share of global mined supply rises to 28% from 24%. Put simply, the world is expected to need more copper while the mines now running deliver less of it.
Readers following the producers can find more names in our list of the best American mining stocks to buy right now.
Why New Supply Takes Years to Arrive
Demand keeps moving the other way. BloombergNEF expects demand tied to electrification to rise 89% to 23.3 million tons in 2050, and its analysts called electrified transport the fastest-growing copper application. That is the pull on a market whose supply is expected to shrink.
The analysts gave data centers a smaller role, calling them “a drop in the ocean for copper demand.” For readers who follow the supply side, our ranking of the best metal recycling stocks to buy covers the companies that reprocess metal.
The 17-year development time is what makes the gap so hard to close. Even if miners invested the full $332 billion, BloombergNEF says the shortfall would likely stay open until at least 2043, and the deficit itself could begin as early as 2028. The numbers make the point that more money alone does not shorten the wait.
Photo by Ricardo Gomez Angel on Unsplash
Our Methodology
To compile this list, we searched for the best copper stocks to buy and the top copper mining stocks, and reviewed rankings published by financial websites over the past 12 months. From the stocks that came up, we picked the 10 with the highest average upside potential, based on analysts’ average price target, as of November 9, 2026. We also list each stock’s number of hedge fund holders as of Q2 2026, from our database of 1,006 hedge funds.
At Insider Monkey, we are obsessed with what hedge funds do. The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Insider Monkey’s quarterly newsletter strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 612% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 375 percentage points (see more details here).
10 Best Copper Stocks to Buy According to Wall Street Analysts
10. BHP Group (NYSE:BHP)
Market Cap: $203.04 billion
Average Upside Potential: -3%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 27
BHP’s latest quarterly review shows a miner with several engines running at once. Its Western Australia iron ore business set mine and port records, and both of its coal businesses produced more than they did a year earlier. Copper prices are about 50% higher than a year ago, a change the company said lifted earnings across the group.
The company is putting that strength into copper growth. It is funding the Escondida New Concentrator in Chile, expanding the resource base at Copper South Australia, and widening its copper pipeline across the Americas. For a closer look at how that spending is paid for, see our analysis of BHP’s copper exposure and rising capital costs.
Chief Executive Officer Brandon Craig said the Jansen potash project is “rapidly taking shape.” Its first stage is 87% complete and on track to begin producing in mid-2027, which would add a large new business alongside the copper expansion. Over the past 12 months, BHP kept 16.73% of its revenue as profit, a margin that gives it room to fund the copper build-out and the potash project at the same time.
9. Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO)
Market Cap: $142.73 billion
Average Upside Potential: 4%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 45
Southern Copper’s chairman, Germán Larrea, called the third quarter a strong one, and the numbers back him up. Net sales rose 39.1% from a year earlier to $4.70 billion, a quarterly record, as the average copper price on the London Metal Exchange climbed sharply. Net income also set a record, and over the past 12 months the company kept 37.16% of its revenue as profit.
Costs stay low because other products pay for much of the mining. After credits from by-products such as molybdenum and silver, the operating cash cost was $0.09 a pound of copper, which means the company earned nearly all of its copper price as margin.
Growth is lined up behind that profit. The Tia Maria mine in Peru is expected to produce 120,000 tonnes of copper a year once it starts up in the first half of 2028, and El Pilar in Mexico follows in the second half of 2029. Larrea said the company is “advancing toward our goal of increasing production to 1.6 million tonnes.” Los Chancas and Michiquillay in Peru are also on the schedule, so the pipeline reaches well beyond the next two projects.
8. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO)
Market Cap: $105.06 billion
Average Upside Potential: 14%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 40
Rio Tinto’s copper growth is coming from Mongolia. Copper production at Oyu Tolgoi rose 27% from a year earlier in the third quarter and ran at an annualized rate of about 450,000 tonnes, according to the company’s quarterly production report. Chief Executive Simon Trott said, “We delivered strong operational performance in the third quarter.”
Elsewhere in the copper business, the rebuild of the flash converting furnace at Kennecott finished at the end of August, ahead of plan. A furnace like that turns concentrate into copper metal, so its return to service lets the mine’s output reach customers without a bottleneck. Consolidated copper output was 205,000 tonnes in the quarter, and the company left its 2026 guidance of 800,000 to 870,000 tonnes unchanged, which signals that management sees the year landing where it planned.
The group’s aluminum side has a deal of its own, covered in our look at the Aurukun bauxite agreement. Together, the two businesses give Rio Tinto exposure to the metals that electrification demands, with copper leading the way as the mines in Mongolia and Utah ramp up and return to normal operation.
7. Teck Resources (NYSE:TECK)
Market Cap: $29.69 billion
Average Upside Potential: 17%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 52
Teck Resources’ third quarter shows what a copper-focused miner earns at record prices. Adjusted profit reached C$923 million, up from C$372 million a year earlier, as copper production rose 11% to 115,700 tonnes. The company also lowered its 2026 copper net cash unit cost guidance, which means each pound it sells leaves more margin behind.
The larger story is the planned merger with Anglo American, which is on track to close within the 12 to 18 months the companies first set out, pending approvals. The combination is expected to deliver about US$800 million in annual pre-tax synergies. President and Chief Executive Officer Jonathan Price said the quarter lays “the strong foundation” for the merger.
Operations are moving in the same direction. Output at Highland Valley Copper is expected near the high end of its range. At Quebrada Blanca in Chile, 2026 copper guidance is unchanged, and installation of the permanent tailings pipeline began in October, with completion expected in the first quarter of 2027. A steadier Quebrada Blanca matters because the mine is the company’s newest large copper source and the one that determines how much the combined company can lean on growth.
6. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX)
Market Cap: $85.33 billion
Average Upside Potential: 35%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 92
Freeport-McMoRan sold copper for an average of $6.54 a pound in the third quarter and earned net income of $1.2 billion on it. The company has also laid out when its Grasberg mine in Indonesia returns to full strength: mill throughput ran at 67% of capacity in the quarter, with 80% expected by mid-2027 and nearly full capacity by the end of 2027.
We recently looked at whether Freeport’s copper tightness can outrun rising costs. The company’s next growth step is in Arizona, where an investment decision on a Bagdad expansion is expected in the fourth quarter. The project would add copper at a U.S. mine and take three to four years to complete, so any decision would shape supply later in the decade.
Chief Executive Officer Kathleen Quirk said Freeport is “strongly positioned as America’s Copper Champion® and as a global copper leader.” Leaching is the other lever: the company targets 300 million pounds a year of copper from leaching initiatives in 2027, up from about 220 million pounds today, which adds metal from existing stockpiles without a new mine.
5. Ero Copper (NYSE:ERO)
Market Cap: $3.01 billion
Average Upside Potential: 38%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 27
Ero Copper called its third quarter a record, and the cash flow shows why. Revenue reached $348.0 million, up from $177.1 million a year earlier, and the company used the extra cash to pay down debt instead of stretching its balance sheet.
Net debt leverage dropped to 0.5 times from 1.2 times at the end of last year, a sign that the business now carries far less borrowing relative to its earnings. President and Chief Executive Officer Makko DeFilippo called deleveraging “one of the core commitments we have made to our shareholders.” A lighter balance sheet gives the company more room to fund growth without leaning on lenders.
The growth story sits in Brazil. The Tucumã mine produced 8,958 tonnes of copper in the quarter, and modular tailings filters are due to be installed and commissioned in the fourth quarter. At the Furnas project, a 45,000-meter drill program finished more than two years ahead of schedule, and a pre-feasibility study is expected in 2027. That study is the step that would show whether Furnas can become the company’s next major source of copper.
4. Trekor Metals (NYSEAMERICAN:TGB)
Market Cap: $2.54 billion
Average Upside Potential: 46%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 21
Florence Copper in Arizona moved into commercial production last month, and the early signs are good. The wellfield has had no significant performance issues, initial flow rates are above expectations, and the plant that turns the solution into cathode ran at design capacity for several days and produced high-quality copper. Florence made 7 million pounds of cathode in the third quarter, up 36% from the prior quarter, and the company is targeting full production capacity in early 2027.
At Gibraltar in British Columbia, higher mill throughput and strong grades in the Connector Pit lifted copper output 12% from the prior quarter to 34 million pounds. The company raised its 2026 Gibraltar guidance to 115 million to 120 million pounds, up from 110 million to 115 million, which shows the older mine is also pulling its weight.
The two mines now give the company a mix of an established concentrator operation and a newer source of U.S. copper cathode. Florence uses a different method from a conventional mine, dissolving copper in place and bringing the solution to the surface, so its ramp-up is the main thing to watch as the company heads into next year.
3. Hudbay Minerals (NYSE:HBM)
Market Cap: $9.29 billion
Average Upside Potential: 79%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 42
Hudbay Minerals produced copper at a negative cost in the second quarter. After credits from gold and other by-products, its consolidated cash cost was minus $0.40 a pound, and the company improved its full-year guidance to a range of minus $0.45 to minus $0.25 a pound from minus $0.30 to minus $0.10. In practice, that means the mines earn more from by-products than they spend producing the copper itself.
That cash flow has built a stronger balance sheet. The company ended the quarter with $890.9 million in cash and a net debt position of negative $80.5 million, meaning it held more cash than debt. It also reaffirmed its 2026 copper production guidance, so the stronger finances are not coming from a cutback in output.
Copper World in Arizona is the growth project. Mitsubishi closed its purchase of a 30% stake in the joint venture in January, paying about $420 million at closing and committing another $180 million within 18 months. Engineering for the definitive feasibility study is about 95% complete, and a sanctioning decision is on track for late 2026, which would turn the project from a study into a build.
2. Ivanhoe Electric (NYSEAMERICAN:IE)
Market Cap: $1.21 billion
Average Upside Potential: 169%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 29
Chief Executive Officer Taylor Melvin said, “We are currently transitioning into early construction,” after the company released an updated feasibility study for its Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona. The study values the project at an after-tax net present value of $3.5 billion at a copper price of $6.79 a pound. At a more conservative base case of $4.75 a pound, the figure is $1.5 billion, so the project stays profitable on paper even if copper retreats.
The mine is designed to produce about 75,000 tonnes of copper a year over its first 15 years and to run for 24 years. Work on the box cut was slated to begin in October, tunnel boring machine decline development is targeted for summer 2027, and first copper cathode is planned for 2029.
Financing has a federal backer in view. A preliminary project letter from the U.S. Export-Import Bank points to potential debt funding of up to $1.1 billion, and the company says the letter completes the bank’s first phase of due diligence and moves the application to the second. A project of this size needs outside capital, so each step through that process matters to the construction timeline.
1. Western Copper and Gold (NYSEAMERICAN:WRN)
Market Cap: $337.01 million
Average Upside Potential: 281%
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 14
Western Copper and Gold’s Casino project in Canada’s Yukon has a feasibility study built on a copper price far below today’s. The 2022 study used US$3.60 a pound and still showed an after-tax net present value of C$2.33 billion, so any move in copper above that assumption works in the project’s favor. Chairman Mark Smith has called Casino “one of the most significant undeveloped copper-gold projects” he has worked on.
The study describes a mine producing about 163 million pounds of copper a year over its life, along with a large amount of gold that adds a second revenue stream. Two large strategic investors back the project: Rio Tinto holds about 8.5% and Mitsubishi Materials about 5.0%. Having mining majors on the register gives a developer without revenue some credibility with lenders and permitting authorities.
The company held more than C$120.6 million in cash and investments at the end of September, and the project is moving through the Yukon’s environmental assessment panel review. For a developer at this stage, that cash and that review are the two milestones that count, because the permit decides whether Casino can ever move toward construction, and the cash pays for the wait.
READ NEXT: Amazon Taps Prysmian and Rio Tinto for Low-Carbon Data Center Cables. What Does it Mean for Investors? and Copper Just Overtook Iron Ore at BHP Group (BHP). Is Its Portfolio Finally Re-Rating?
