Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) held its first earnings call as a public company earlier this month, and Elon Musk set an aggressive target: an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by December, more than tripling the company’s current run rate of just over $30 billion.
According to a Financial Times report, Deutsche Bank revisited that target after the results and mapped out the specific deals it thinks could actually get SpaceX there.
Why This Matters
Musk insisted the number isn’t a stretch goal, telling analysts on the call that it’s roughly what Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) would hit “if we basically did nothing” beyond letting existing deals ramp up. That raises the real question: is $100 billion really just a matter of contracts already in motion, or does hitting it require several fast-moving, unproven pieces to land at once?
Photo from Firefly Aerospace website
The Bull Case
Deutsche Bank’s math shows real building blocks already in place. SpaceX’s neocloud business, which provides AI compute capacity to outside customers, generated $1.6 billion in revenue in the second quarter, entirely from Anthropic. That single contract should take it to roughly $3.75 billion in quarterly revenue by the third quarter. A separate agreement with Google, worth up to $920 million a month, starts ramping next month and hits its full run rate in October. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) has also signed a new $6.7 billion deal spanning six months that Deutsche Bank suspects could be with the U.S. government. The bank expects at least one more large compute deal to get signed before year-end.
Together, Deutsche Bank estimates that the combination alone could make $45 billion to $50 billion in annualized revenue exiting December. Layered on top is SpaceX’s pending acquisition of AI coding startup Cursor, expected to close in the third quarter. Cursor’s own annualized revenue reportedly already grew from $2 billion in February to $4 billion by early June, and Deutsche Bank assumes it could grow another two to three times by December.
The Bear Case
Reaching that target means spending heavily first. Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) is targeting 5 to 10 gigawatts of AI compute capacity next year, up from just over 2 gigawatts exiting this year. Deutsche Bank estimates that the incremental build could cost $120 billion to $320 billion. Even the bank’s own base case, at the low end of that range, sees total capital spending across SpaceX’s space and connectivity businesses trending toward $200 billion, a figure that outpaces the company’s current revenue run rate. To fund that, Deutsche Bank expects SpaceX to raise more than $100 billion in new debt next year and possibly tap a separate financing vehicle on top of that. Part of the $100 billion revenue math isn’t locked in yet either: it still depends on that one additional large compute deal getting signed and on Cursor’s growth holding up once the acquisition actually closes.
Insider Monkey’s Hedge Fund Data
SpaceX doesn’t appear in Insider Monkey’s hedge fund database, since it only went public in June 2026. However, a key satellite-broadband rival, AST SpaceMobile, had roughly 39 hedge fund holders as of Q1 2026, up from 33. Among other newly public, high-growth names, Rocket Lab had 43 holders, down from 45.
Conclusion
The building blocks behind Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX)’s $100 billion target look more concrete than a typical forecast. However, getting there without straining the balance sheet, through well over $100 billion in new debt, is where the real risk sits.
While we acknowledge the risk and potential of SPCX as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SPCX and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
