The US Space Force’s Golden Dome missile-defense program has recently reached a new milestone, marking a sign of progress toward building the defense technology. On August 11, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC), and other companies involved in the $185 billion initiative successfully completed the first round of critical tests for space-based missile interceptors.
According to General Michael Guetlein, the Space Force general heading Golden Dome, the companies are now heading toward the next phase of the program, which is to demonstrate that their technologies can operate in space.
These successful tests are a testament to the significant advancements in US defense technology, particularly in the field of missile interception. Both SpaceX and Northrop Grumman Corp stand to benefit from the missile defense program, albeit differently.
SpaceX can use the Golden Dome to deepen a rapidly expanding national-security space business, while Northrop can add the program to its already established portfolio.
SpaceX: A Fast-Growing Defense Business
Back in May, Reuters reported how the US Space Force awarded SpaceX a $2.29 billion contract to build the Space Data Network (SDN) Backbone. This is a secure, high-speed satellite communications network that would connect military sensors and weapons platforms across the globe. More importantly, the company was awarded a $4.16 billion deal for a satellite program in the same month, designed to track and target airborne threats.
The Following July, the Elon Musk-led company was also awarded $1.6 billion in orders from the U.S. Space Force to launch 18 Falcon 9 missions through 2027 carrying Pentagon satellites. The aim of this award was to help in detecting and targeting airborne objects.
Developments like these demonstrate how the US Space Force is already relying on SpaceX for several of the communications, sensing, and launch functions that the Golden Dome architecture would ultimately require.
The bear case, however, is that the Golden Dome is still far from becoming a meaningful revenue stream. Previous discussions from analysts have also questioned whether the SpaceX group would be able to set up a system efficiently with the new technology, and that too, in a cost effective way that could protect the US from attack.
“It remains to be seen whether SpaceX and these tech companies will be able to pull any of this off,” said one of the sources. “They’ve never had to deliver on an entire system that the nation will need to rely on for its defense.”
U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), a senior member of the Armed Services Committee, also previously commented how it’s a serious problem “when the richest man in the world can become a Special Government Employee and exert influence over the flow of billions of dollars of taxpayer money in government contracts to his companies.”
Northrop Grumman: A More Direct Missile-Defense Play
Northrop Grumman is already a premier mission and missile defense play in the aerospace and defense sector. According to the company’s website, its layered missile defense creates an end-to-end network of linked sensors, battle management and interceptors across space, air, sea and land.
In June, the company reported how it is on track to deliver on-orbit space-based interceptor (SBI) capability in 2027 based on a partnership with space startup Apex. Combining advanced missile defense technologies and commercial partnerships, the company has already completed key ground tests this year. It is said to be uniquely positioned with Apex to boost and scale affordable production to defend the homeland.
The company lifted its 2026 sales and adjusted profit forecast in July, partly backed by the U.S. President Donald Trump pressing defense companies to expand manufacturing capacity and boost weapons production. Its sales outlook now forecasts revenue of between $43.75 billion and $44.25 billion, up $250 million from its previous guidance.
Despite this, it is worth noting how Northrop is already involved in a number of technically complex programs. In its second quarter, the company’s operating income was affected by unfavorable cost adjustments on the GEM 63XL rocket motor program and the Stand-in Attack Weapon, or SiAW. Golden Dome could also carry similar execution risks.
What is Hedge Fund Data Saying?
Hedge-fund positioning only provides a clearer signal for Northrop since SpaceX only began trading recently. According to Insider Monkey’s Database, 62 hedge funds held Northrop Grumman at the end of the first quarter of 2026, unchanged from the prior quarter.
For SpaceX, early filings show that RIT Capital Partners is currently the largest disclosed hedge fund holder, and their position accounts for nearly 45% of their portfolio. The hedge fund held 1,634,820 shared valued at $279,014,729. Meanwhile, Contrarius Investment Management held 860,709 shares valued at $147,060,740. SpaceX’s complete hedge fund picture is yet to emerge.
Speaking of its valuation, the company’s current Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is around 75x. If the company can successfully scale its operations, the stock has the capability to soar to unprecedented heights. However, it is also sensitive to execution setbacks.
For Northrop, the stock currently trades on a P/E of 18.2x, sitting well below the Aerospace & Defense industry average of about 38.9x. The stock has a considerably less demanding valuation than SpaceX.
Bottom-line
Overall, Golden Dome could matter more to SpaceX as it would allow the company to expand deeper into the missile-defense segment. However, NOC is more likely to strengthen because of its already established portfolio. SpaceX still has the bigger upside if the program scales, but NOC could garner the clearer path to monetization.
While we acknowledge the risk and potential of SPCX and NOC as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than SPCX and NOC and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: Nvidia (NVDA) Is Going Beyond GPUs in the $500 Billion AI Boom, Wells Fargo Says and QumulusAI (QMLS) Signs DRW Blackwell Deal: Can Momentum Translate Into Revenue?
Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.
