NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) raised its quarterly dividend from $0.40 to $0.41 in November 2025, a roughly 3% increase. That marked the company’s 24th consecutive year of dividend growth. As of August 12, 2026, Nike’s latest dividend declaration, made on May 4, 2026, remained at $0.41 per share.
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Bull Case: Nike Could Raise the Dividend Again
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE)’s dividend history is probably the strongest reason to expect another increase. The company has raised its dividend every year since 2002. If it does so again in 2026, Nike will reach 25 consecutive years of dividend growth, putting it into Dividend Aristocrat territory. That milestone could matter to management, especially given Nike’s long-standing reputation for returning money to shareholders. Earlier this year, Jefferies analyst Randal Konik also pointed to the possibility of Nike reaching the 25-year mark in 2026.
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) has some financial flexibility to support another increase. The company ended fiscal 2026 with about $9 billion in cash and short-term investments and generated $46.4 billion in revenue during the year. Earnings declined, but Nike still paid roughly $2.4 billion in dividends.
There are also some signs that the business may be starting to stabilize. Wholesale revenue increased 6% in fiscal 2026, while gross margin improved by 20 basis points for the year. CEO Elliott Hill is also working to improve profitability and get the business back on track.
If the turnaround starts gaining momentum in the first half of fiscal 2027, Nike could have enough confidence to raise the dividend again. It would not need to be a big increase. A 1%-3% hike would take the quarterly dividend to roughly $0.414-$0.422 per share. That would keep the streak alive without putting significant pressure on Nike’s cash flow.
Bear Case: Nike May Keep the Dividend at $0.41
The bigger concern is that NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE)’s financial performance is still weak. Fiscal 2026 revenue was basically flat at $46.4 billion. Net income fell 3% to $3.1 billion, while diluted EPS declined 3% to $2.10. Nike Direct revenue dropped 6%, and Converse revenue plunged 31%.
With those numbers, raising the dividend becomes a tougher decision. Nike currently pays $0.41 per quarter, or $1.64 per share annually. Compared with fiscal 2026 EPS of $2.10, that puts the payout ratio at roughly 78%. Fidelity’s data shows a similar figure of about 77.6%.
Free cash flow is even more concerning. NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) generated around $2.18 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2026 but paid approximately $2.4 billion in dividends. For the year, that means the company paid out more in dividends than it generated in free cash flow. The dividend growth rate has also been slowing. Nike increased the payout by 12% in 2022, but that growth rate fell to just 2.5% in 2025. This suggests management is already being careful about how quickly it raises the dividend.
The dividend itself is not necessarily in trouble. Nike still has a sizeable cash position that provides some protection. The bigger question is whether management will want to commit more cash to dividends while the business is still being rebuilt.
There are other areas competing for that cash, too. NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) is spending on product innovation and marketing, rebuilding relationships with wholesale partners, and trying to improve its direct business. A larger dividend would add more pressure at a time when the company needs to invest in the turnaround. Some analysts have raised concerns about this.
Conclusion
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) is more likely to raise its dividend in 2026 than leave it unchanged, but the increase is likely to be small. The 25-year milestone gives management a strong reason to keep the streak going. Nike has spent more than two decades building its dividend record, and ending it just one year before reaching 25 years would be a notable decision.
At the same time, the company’s financial results do not leave much room for an aggressive increase. Earnings fell in fiscal 2026, revenue was flat, and free cash flow came in below the amount paid in dividends. The current $1.64 annual payout already takes up roughly 78% of fiscal 2026 EPS.
A small increase would probably make the most sense. It would allow Nike to maintain its dividend-growth record without putting too much additional pressure on cash flow while the company works through its turnaround.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
