On August 4, Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE:ADM) executives told investors on an earnings call that the company would expand capacity at four US oilseed-crushing plants, a roughly $100 million push into a business that just posted its strongest quarter in years. The plants sit in Frankfort, Indiana; Deerfield, Missouri; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Spiritwood, North Dakota, the last a joint venture with Marathon Petroleum. Together, the upgrades are expected to add about 700,000 metric tons of crush capacity by 2028 or 2029, and six more sites have already been flagged for possible future growth.
Growing Demand Meets Cautious Capital
CEO Juan Luciano framed the projects as a cheap way to add output, estimating the cost at roughly a quarter of what a brand-new facility would require. That math matters because ADM just reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.84, well above the $1.44 analysts expected, and raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.15 to $5.60 from a prior $4.15 to $4.70. Operating profit in the ag services and oilseeds segment, ADM’s largest, jumped 129% year over year to $867 million, with the crushing subsegment alone up $330 million as oilseed volumes climbed about 5%.
The company has now identified 10 US soy processing plants for potential expansion in total, and Luciano said top buyer China appears on track to meet its commitment to purchase 25 million metric tons of US soybeans this year. Nutrition, long a laggard, also grew 51% to $172 million on strength in flavors. Even so, Luciano described the crushing expansion as a “phased approach to allow for offramps,” language that suggests management wants room to pull back if the current environment does not hold. The projects are expected to fit inside ADM’s existing 2026 capital expenditure range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion, following expansions at two Brazilian plants last year and an extension completed this year in Uberlandia.
Tailwinds That Could Turn
The strength behind these numbers leans heavily on conditions ADM does not control. Finalized 2026 and 2027 renewable volume obligations under the US Renewable Fuel Standard, locked in only this past March, are doing much of the work behind crushing margins, alongside energy prices that climbed after the Iran war. Roughly $100 million of the ag services and oilseeds profit came from net positive mark-to-market and timing impacts, gains tied to commodity pricing swings rather than the underlying business.
Not every part of the portfolio moved in the same direction. The refined products and other subsegment posted a 3% profit decline on negative mark-to-market impacts and supply and demand imbalances in South America, and equity earnings from ADM’s stake in Wilmar fell 22%. Those soft spots, paired with a crush expansion built with explicit offramps, hint that management sees more uncertainty in the setup than the headline guidance raise suggests.
Money Is Trimming Even As Shares Hold
Hedge fund ownership of ADM fell from 39 funds to 35 in the most recent quarter, a pullback even as the stock has moved higher. Short interest sits at just 3.33% of float, which points to little organized bearish positioning against the stock. A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.85, as of September 1, is a modest multiple for a company that just raised its profit outlook by more than $1 per share at the midpoint, suggesting the market has not fully priced in the improved guidance. That combination leaves room to read the setup either as skepticism about how durable the biofuels tailwind is or as an opportunity the market hasn’t caught up to yet.
The Real Test Is Durability
ADM’s crush expansion is a low-cost bet on renewable fuel and vegetable oil demand that management can scale back if conditions sour. The company’s earnings jump this quarter leaned on a policy environment finalized only months ago and on energy prices tied to geopolitical events, not necessarily a permanent shift in the business. For the expansion to pay off as planned, the RVO framework and current margin environment need to hold through 2028 and 2029.
READ NEXT: 10 Best Future Stocks to Buy Under $10 and 12 Best Performing Semiconductor Stocks to Invest In.
Disclosure: None. Follow Insider Monkey on Google News.
