5 Countries That May Attack Israel

The last thing the Middle East needs right now is another major conflict, but that may not be enough from preventing these 5 countries that may attack Israel from starting it.

According to many experts, Israel has never been safer in its modern history since the start of Syrian Civil War and the rise of ISIS. For a while, it seemed that everyone forgot about them while being busy with turning Syria and Northern Iraq into a wasteland. Israelis sat behind their borders and observed the carnage, with occasional strikes against Hezbollah weapons convoys and any ISIS forces reckless enough to stray near its border. But, as history has shown us numerous times, things may change rapidly in the Middle East. With ISIS control of Iraq territory down to just 7% (from 40% in its heyday), according to Brig Gen Yahya Rasool, it is evident that the terrorist state is on its last legs. Once they are eliminating, the only thing preventing the region from reverting to business as usual, which often means taking pot shots at Israel, will be Syrian Civil War. Now in its seventh year and with no ending in sight, it has become a polygon for United States, Russia, and various other nations to flex their muscles.

Despite the appearances, Israel hasn’t been exactly idle. In 2014, IDF replaced unit guarding the Golan Heights, switching 36th Armored Division with 210th Regional Bashan Division. The 36th is a regular division that has been stationed in Golan for the last 40 years, ever since Israel wrestled the control of this strategic position from the Syrians. Newly raised 210th Bashan is a reservist unit and its deployment signifies a major shift in how IDF plans to deal with any threats coming from Syrian territory. Bashan will respond to any immediate threat, while the 36th will be transformed from a border-defense unit into a regular front-line armored division, ready to strike against any country that may attack Israel.

In order to create our list, we took several things into consideration. While the actual chances of anyone attacking IDF, one of the Most Technologically Advanced Militaries in the World, are quite slim, one can never be certain of how things may turn out in the Middle East. The most important factor was military capability, reflecting the country’s ability to inflict damage on IDF. The other factor was political climate in a given country. Admittedly, things get a little murky here, since the politics of Middle East are susceptible to swift changes of lately. We did our best to select 5 countries that may attack Israel that have both the means and reason to go to war against IDF.

5. Egypt

In 2011, it seemed that 30-years peace between Egypt and Israel had done wonders to improve both relationship and cooperation between the two countries. But then the Arab Spring happened and things change overnight. The Muslim Brotherhood seized power and a new conflict was on the horizon. However, in 2014, a military coup brought Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to power. One of the first things on his agenda was mending relations with Tel Aviv. He was so successful in doing it that The Economist dubbed him “the most pro-Israeli Egyptian leader ever.” While Egypt under Sisi is doing its best to move away from radical Islamism, the fact remains that the Muslim Brotherhood retains a significant support among Egyptians and their return to power can’t be easily dismissed, despite their current situation.

4. Saudi Arabia

In a classic “enemy of my enemy” move, Saudi Arabia and Israel have become de facto allies, with a common goal of containing Iran, especially after President Obama signed the Iran Deal. Both nations share the same patron, the United States, and benefit from its influence in the region and although they (still) don’t have diplomatic relationships, there are signs of Saudis’ officials thawing toward Israel and even suggestions of secret cooperation between Riyadh and Tel Aviv. However, not everything is as rosy as it appears and there may be troubles brewing for Israel under the surface in the desert kingdom.

Despite massive oil revenues, Saudi Arabia can go bankrupt by 2020, due to low oil prices and huge government spending. Most of that spending has gone to equipping one of the most modern militaries in the region, with dozens of billions poured into purchasing Abrams tanks, Bradley armored vehicles, Eurofighter Typhoons, F-15 Strike Eagles, Apache attack helicopters, French frigates and US corvettes, and many other weapons and support systems. In case that Riyadh government can’t afford to pay salaries, that army can easily switch its loyalties to someone else, like religious fanatics inside the kingdom responsible for sponsoring Wahhabists worldwide. Even if army remains loyal to King Salman, Saudis can easily turn to a time-honored tradition of Arab dictators when faced with a domestic turmoil – strike at the Jewish state. Although Saudi army doesn’t pose an existential threat to Israel, despite its modern equipment, (they are actually struggling against Houthi rebels in Yemen, due to lack of proper training and low morale), it does have enough teeth to cause some serious troubles and inflict heavy losses on Israel Defense Force.

3. Turkey

At the end of the Great War, once powerful Ottoman Empire was dissolved and Turkey was born. The new republic lost the control of the Middle East, a region that was under Istanbul’s rule for centuries. Many modern experts agree that the Sykes–Picot Agreement, which defined new borders in the region, is a root of a majority of problems the Middle East faces today. Be that as it may, Turkey has been gradually increasing its influence over the region in the last few decades, by first providing support to United States’ wars and lately, by conducting them on their own. While on the surface Turkey shares a common enemy with Israel, Erdogan’s policies of increasing Islamization of his country may easily result in a conflict with the Jewish state. To make matters worse, Turkish armed forces are the only one in the region that can give IDF a run for their money. They are well-equipped, decently trained, and have plenty of combat experience from decades of fighting Kurd rebel groups.

2. Lebanon

Lebanon doesn’t really has armed forces capable of seriously challenging Israel Defense Force, not it is really politically viable for a country that has received more than $220 million in the United States military aid (making it the fifth-biggest recipient of US military aid) to even consider using that aid to wage a war against one of the United States’ most important allies. So, what is it doing on our list of countries that may attack Israel? The answer is simple: Hezbollah. While the Iran-backed group is currently heavily involved in Syrian Civil War, their main goal of destroying Israel is always present. The latest clash between Hezbollah and Israel happened in 2016 when Islamists staged an ambush near Shebaa farms, a part of Golan Heights as a retaliation for IDF strike that killed several Hezbollah members, as well as Iranian Revolutionary Guards general Mohammad Ali Allahdadi who was with them at the time. For a while, it seemed that Israel was ready to commit to yet another invasion of Lebanon, but cooler heads prevailed and all-out war was avoided. One of the reasons Israel refused to escalate the conflict was the fact that Hezbollah has grown in strength significantly since the last war in 2006. The war in Syria was beneficial to the terror group, as it took advantage of Russian and Iranian instructors in the field and much easier access to modern weapons, like Russian 9M133 Kornet anti-tank missile, suspected used in Shebaa farms attack. While they lack the means to challenge IDF in air, on the ground things are bound to get messy in a potential conflict, considering that majority of fighting would take place in densely populated urban areas and Hezbollah’s readiness to retaliate against civilian targets deep within Israel territory.

1. Iran

We conclude our list of 5 countries that may attack Israel with Iran. Iran has long been a boogeyman of the Middle East when it comes to Israel. The relationship between the two countries has been strenuous at best in the last few decades following the Israeli bombing of the Osirak reactor in 1981. Although Iran officially denounced any plans to create nuclear weapons and had sanctions eased in return, it would seem that the goal of destroying Israel has remained on the Tehran agenda and Iranian officials rarely miss a chance to rant about annihilating “Zionist state”. Since Iran and Israel lack a common border, the eventual war would be mainly fought by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, meaning that Lebanon would be a battlefield once more. What Iran is lacking though, are means of striking Israel at their home turf. Their missile program is lagging severely behind the modern Western technology and despite large numbers of ballistic missiles, their inaccuracy would prevent them from playing a decisive factor in an engagement against Israel and its Iron Dome anti-missile system. Iranian Air Force is even worse condition and would barely pose a threat to Israel pilots, should Tel Aviv decide to carry out strikes against Iran.