NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) remains a top AI pick among US politicians. It is one of the four stocks in our list of President Trump and Nancy Pelosi Portfolio: Top 4 Picks. Unusual Whales’ 2025 Congress trading report shows House members bought more Nvidia than any other stock that year.
Bull Case
Nvidia gets the first share of AI spending because its chips sit inside most AI data centers. Data centers bring in about 92.5% of its revenue. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, revenue rose 106% year over year, and data center revenue rose 117%. Nvidia expects its next platform, Vera Rubin, to make up roughly 20% of data center revenue in the fiscal third quarter. See how Nvidia plans to hand off from Blackwell to Vera Rubin without slowing growth.
Analysts still expect double-digit revenue and earnings growth for each of the next four years, and their estimates keep moving higher. The stock trades at about 25 times expected earnings, against a five-year average of about 42. Nvidia announced its largest share buyback ever on Sept 28. L1 Capital International Fund raised its Nvidia stake in the second quarter and now holds it as a top 5 position. Read why L1 Capital thinks AI spending will stay stronger for longer.
While Nvidia might be making headlines in major portfolios, its valuation requires believing the AI spending cycle will never peak. See why Insider Monkey’s research points to cheaper, overlooked stocks with better value.
Bear Case
Semiconductors move in cycles, and investors may see Nvidia near a peak. Analysts expect revenue growth to slow from about 90% this fiscal year to about 65% next year. Margins sit well above Nvidia’s five-year average, and CEO Jensen Huang has acknowledged they could come under pressure. Competition is growing too. Epoch AI data shows Nvidia’s share of AI chip sales fell from about 80% in the first quarter of 2024 to 67% in the second quarter of 2026. Alphabet’s TPUs are the most serious rival. Investors have already shown how they react to spending worries. Alger Capital Appreciation Fund said Nvidia sold off after earnings earlier this year on doubts about AI capital spending. See what Alger said about the sell-off.
Nvidia is a notable pick in both portfolios. The bull case is multi-year AI spending from the world’s largest tech companies. The bear case is a cyclical slowdown and a customer base that depends on a few AI labs. Both portfolios were still buying NVIDIA Corporation in their latest disclosures.
While we acknowledge the risk and potential of NVDA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NVDA and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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