Sunrun (RUN) Heads Into Q3 Earnings With Shares Up 10.3%: What to Expect

Sunrun Inc.’s (NASDAQ:RUN) upcoming third-quarter earnings report is expected to provide investors with a clearer picture of its growth trajectory and whether it could deliver on its targets for the full year 2026.

The solar stock—whose shares jumped 10.29 percent on Monday to $8.25 apiece—is set to announce the results of its earnings performance on Wednesday, November 4.

Beyond the latest quarterly figures, the biggest question for investors now lies in whether the company will be able to sustain its growth momentum or whether it will need to revise its guidance.

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What to Expect

In its last earnings call, the residential solar service provider said that it is expecting aggregate subscriber value to be in a range of $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion for full-year 2026, as compared with its prior guidance of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion.

Cash generation is expected at $200 million to $375 million, excluding potential investment related to equipment safe harboring, versus the previous guidance of $250 million to $450 million.

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Meanwhile, the third-quarter earnings results of Enphase Energy—a solar peer—offer an indication of what can be expected for Sunrun Inc.’s earnings performance in the third quarter of the year.

During the period, Enphase Energy said that its net income shrank by 65 percent while its revenues declined by 28 percent—reflecting the pressure that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has created among solar businesses.

Moderate Buy

Sunrun Inc. carries a moderate buy rating among 14 investors covering the stock, the most recent of which was Mizuho Securities, which reiterated its buy recommendation for the stock last week despite lowering its price target to $15 from $18.

The figure, however, implied a 45 percent upside potential from its closing price on Monday.

Hedge Fund Positioning Softens

Institutional sentiment turned weak for Sunrun Inc. in the second quarter of the year, as evidenced by the decline in the number of hedge funds and their committed capital during the period.

Data from Insider Monkey showed that 40 hedge funds held positions in the stock during the period, down from 45 in the first quarter. Their combined holdings also dipped by 4.4 percent to $768.87 million from $804.4 million quarter-on-quarter.

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