With AI stocks making waves, some prudent investors are looking at healthcare names to diversify amid concerns about an AI data center slowdown. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) ranks eighth on our list of the top 10 stocks Jim Cramer and billionaire Ken Fisher like. The stock has gained about 23% over the past year, but can it gain further? Let’s analyze.
Why the Earnings Forecast Keeps Shrinking
AbbVie has trimmed its 2026 earnings guidance several times this year, and the latest range is lower than where the year began. The main reason is a cost AbbVie does not forecast, which is payments for acquired research and milestones when it signs deals. When AbbVie signs a deal, the cost lands in that quarter’s earnings, and the company lowers its guidance to include it. AbbVie also says its Apogee Therapeutics acquisition will weigh on earnings for several years before it adds to them.
The impact shows up in three places. Analysts have trimmed their 2026 estimates over the past few months. Reported earnings come in well below adjusted earnings, which makes the stock look more expensive on reported numbers. And because the guidance leaves out deal charges AbbVie has not yet signed, more cuts are possible if it does more deals. The charges hit profit and leave sales alone, so bulls call them an investment in future drugs, and bears call them a cost that keeps coming back. Click to read the Q1 earnings call.
Skyrizi and Rinvoq Are Filling the Humira Gap
Bulls point to sales growth that is already replacing Humira. Second-quarter revenue rose 10.2%, and adjusted earnings per share rose 22.9% to $3.65, above the $3.61 analysts expected. Skyrizi grew 24.4% and Rinvoq grew 24.5%. Together they make up about 47% of quarterly revenue, enough to offset Humira’s decline after it lost exclusivity in 2023.
Skyrizi and Rinvoq have key US patents extending through 2033, while AbbVie expects generic competition for Rinvoq tablets to be delayed further. Rinvoq has also gained approval for giant cell arteritis and, in the European Union, severe alopecia areata. AbbVie has also asked the FDA to approve an injectable starting dose of Skyrizi for Crohn’s disease. Analysts expect revenue to grow 10.6% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027, while earnings per share are projected to rise 39.6% and 16.0%, respectively. The sharp earnings growth expected in 2026 partly reflects a comparison with 2025, when acquired research and milestone expenses reduced adjusted earnings by $2.76 per share. AbbVie has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters.
Where Bears See Trouble
Bears start with concentration. Skyrizi and Rinvoq make up about 47% of revenue, so a slowdown in either would hit the whole company. The other businesses grow little, with oncology revenue down 1.5% in the second quarter and aesthetics up 0.3%. Patents are the next worry, since Skyrizi and Rinvoq are protected only until 2031, and Humira shows what happens afterward. The Apogee deal also adds cost before it adds profit. Click to see AbbVie versus Bristol Myers.
What the Price Already Assumes
AbbVie trades at 20.7 times forward adjusted earnings, about 6% above the sector median of 19.5 and 41.7% above its own five-year average of 14.6. On GAAP earnings, which include the research charges, the forward P/E is 36.9 against 25.3 for the sector, and the trailing figure is 81.7 against 27. The charges cause the gap. In 2025, AbbVie reported GAAP earnings of $2.36 per share against $10.00 adjusted. Bears use the GAAP figures, and bulls use the adjusted ones.
Growth gives bulls their best valuation argument. AbbVie’s forward PEG ratio, which compares the P/E to growth, is 1.54 against a sector median of 1.88, so it costs less per point of growth than the typical sector stock. Its enterprise value is 8.9 times sales against 3.7 for the sector, though. Wall Street’s consensus rating is Buy, and a quant score rates the stock Hold. Click to see how Pfizer compares.
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