Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) CEO David Ricks said that about 700,000 new seniors have started GLP-1 treatment since Medicare began covering obesity drugs in July, with roughly 70% using Lilly medicines. The temporary Medicare “Bridge” program allows eligible beneficiaries to obtain obesity treatments for a $50 monthly co-pay, giving Zepbound and Foundayo access to a large population that previously faced limited Medicare coverage. Lilly says many of the new patients are choosing Zepbound, while Foundayo is gaining traction among patients seeking an oral option.
The early uptake matters because Lilly already has substantial exposure to the obesity market. In the first half of 2026, Zepbound generated $9.09 billion in revenue, up 60% year over year, while Mounjaro generated $18.61 billion, up 106%. Together, the two drugs represented 65% of Lilly’s total revenue in the period. Lilly has also said it is expanding manufacturing capacity to meet expected demand for its incretin portfolio.
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Medicare Expansion Could Broaden Lilly’s GLP-1 Growth Runway
The Medicare data provides evidence that expanding insurance coverage is bringing new patients into the GLP-1 market rather than simply shifting existing patients between drugs. If 700,000 seniors have started treatment in less than three months and Eli Lilly and Company is capturing about 70%, the company has potentially added roughly 490,000 patients to its treatment base. Continued enrollment could therefore create another source of volume growth for Zepbound and Foundayo.
Lilly’s competitive position is particularly relevant because it has products across both injectable and oral formats. Ricks said Zepbound remains particularly popular among patients with higher body weight and more complications, while one-third of new oral GLP-1 patients are taking Foundayo. Reuters reported earlier in September that Foundayo had captured more than 30% of new U.S. oral obesity-drug patients, suggesting Lilly is gaining share beyond its established injectable franchise.
The opportunity also comes as Eli Lilly and Company is adding capacity. The company has said significant manufacturing expansion is underway, while its new Medicare pathway runs through December 2027. Foundayo’s clinical data in adults 65 and older showed up to 13% mean weight reduction at 72 weeks at the highest dose, giving Lilly a product specifically suited to an expanding older-patient population.
Novo Nordisk and Pricing Pressure Could Complicate Lilly’s Medicare Opportunity
The headline patient numbers do not translate directly into equivalent revenue or profit growth. Medicare coverage comes with negotiated economics, and Eli Lilly and Company has already reported that higher volumes of Mounjaro and Zepbound have been accompanied by lower realized prices. That means a rapid increase in prescriptions can still produce less incremental revenue and margin expansion than headline volume growth might suggest.
Competition is also intensifying. Medicare’s Bridge program covers Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy alongside Lilly’s products, giving seniors a direct choice between the two leading obesity franchises. Reuters has reported that the broader weight-loss market is attracting major pharmaceutical companies and is expected to become a $100 billion annual market within the next decade, increasing the likelihood of pricing and market-share pressure as more oral and next-generation treatments arrive.
There is also a duration risk around the Medicare opportunity. The current Bridge program is temporary and runs through the end of 2027. Reuters has noted concerns about the program’s long-term sustainability and the potentially substantial Medicare spending associated with broader GLP-1 coverage. If coverage terms change, Lilly could face a slower patient-growth trajectory after the pilot period.
Conclusion
The Medicare rollout is a meaningful growth catalyst for Eli Lilly and Company because it is expanding the addressable GLP-1 population while Lilly is capturing about 70% of newly treated seniors. The combination of Zepbound’s strength among higher-risk patients and Foundayo’s growing share of oral prescriptions gives Lilly multiple ways to benefit from the expansion.
At the same time, the impact on earnings and cash flow will depend on negotiated Medicare pricing, manufacturing capacity, and whether the coverage remains in place after 2027. With Mounjaro and Zepbound already accounting for 65% of first-half revenue, the latest Medicare figures strengthen Lilly’s growth opportunity but also reinforce the company’s increasing dependence on the incretin franchise.
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This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
