Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) received a modest price target raise on September 18 from Guggenheim. The brokerage increased its target to $1,284 from $1,273 while maintaining a Buy rating on the pharma stock.
But perhaps the more important change was in Foundayo estimates. Guggenheim sharply raised its revenue forecasts for Lilly’s oral obesity drug, as early prescription trends improve. It now expects Foundayo to generate $1.8 billion in revenue in 2027 and $3.7 billion in 2028. That’s up from previous estimates of $1.2 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively.
Also, the firm maintained its 2026 estimate for Foundayo, even as it modeled a lower price for the 2.5-mg dose for the remainder of the year. That was because of improving prescription trajectory.
Lilly’s growing investment in innovation extends beyond obesity treatments. The company is also expanding its exposure to AI-driven drug discovery through its collaboration with Twist Bioscience and the TuneLab platform. Read more: Twist Bioscience (TWST) Expands AI Drug Discovery Exposure With Lilly TuneLab Partnership
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That Trajectory Is Visible in Weekly Prescription Data
According to IQVIA data, Foundayo prescriptions rose nearly 8% to about 47,500 in the reporting week through September 11. Eli Lilly and Company also said on September 14 that Foundayo had captured more than 30% of new U.S. patients in the oral obesity-treatment market. That has helped it narrow the early lead held by rival Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill.
Access has also improved. CVS Caremark began covering Foundayo on June 1, while its coverage of Zepbound is scheduled to resume October 1. Lilly said the changes mean all three of the largest US pharmacy benefit managers will cover its full obesity medicine portfolio.
Prescription Growth Must Outpace Pricing Pressure
Eli Lilly and Company raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $85 billion – $87 billion, from $82 billion – $85 billion. This was after it reported strong revenue growth in Q2. That quarter was supported by a 60% increase in worldwide volume, but that was partly offset by a 13% decline in realized prices.
The results show that if Lilly has to use lower prices, discounts, or rebates to expand access, prescription growth does not yield proportional revenue increase. And that’s dynamic facing Foundayo amid the pricing pressure.
Hedge Fund Buying as Short Sellers Remain Limited
According to Insider Monkey’s database, elite investors increased their exposure to Eli Lilly and Company in the latest quarter. The number of hedge funds holding the stock rose to 152 in Q2 from 132 in Q1. Billionaire Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management boosted stake 5% to 5.1 million shares to remain as the largest hedge fund holder.
Short interest remains limited. As of September 15, about 7.52 million LLY shares were shorted, representing roughly 0.8% of the public float. That was down about 4.7% from the August 31 reading.
What’s the key point from Guggenheim’s update? It’s not the $11 increase in Lilly’s price target. It’s the sharp upward revision to Foundayo’s revenue potential. The early prescription data supports the direction of those revisions. However, Lilly needs prescription growth to translate into enough additional revenue to offset the pricing pressure.
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