Which are the only teams with a chance to win the Super Bowl this year? While hope springs eternal as they say, and every team enters the season with a technically equal chance to win the Lombardi Trophy, not all teams have a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl. Football fans who don’t care about statistics and probabilities will shrug the following article off as nonsense, and insist any team who hasn’t been mathematically eliminated yet still has a shot. However there is a great deal of science behind the numbers.
The model which allows us to determine the only teams with a chance to win the Super Bowl this year was created by Nate Silver, and uses a rating system of great complexity. It takes into account margin of victories, home-field advantage, the strength of the current schedule, and the prior performance of the team. All this information is taken into account, and then the rest of the season is simulated thousands of times, in order to determine which teams are most likely to make it into the playoffs and finally win the Super Bowl.
If you read our list of the 10 most profitable US sports teams and are generally interested in the NFL, then the following article regarding the only teams with a chance to win the super bowl might interest you. Although sports always have a way of surprising us, and nothing is written in stone, there does seem to be some truth behind the predictions based on the Nate Silver Model. Even if the Super Bowl matchup does not include one of the teams presented, at least one of them is bound to make an appearance in our list. So let’s take a closer look at the only teams with a chance to win the Super Bowl and see what likely awaits us at the end of the season.
9. Dallas Cowboys
The first team on our list is the Dallas Cowboys, with a 5% chance of taking the crown at the end of the season. An Elo rating of 1563 points has allowed this teams to cross the 5% threshold and enter the ranks of the teams most likely to win the Super Bowl.
8. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts also have a 5% chance of winning this year’s Super Bowl, boasting an Elo rating of 1564 points, following a recent 18 point bump.
Despite dropping 22 points on the Elo rating, the Cardinals still boast a 6% chance of seeing their way into the final matchup, making them a real contender for the Super Bowl.
The Bengals also lost a rank and are currently the team who lost the most points on the Elo rating. Nevertheless, they still have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
The top five teams with a chance to win the Super Bowl are recounted on the next pages. Will it be the 49ers leading the way, or another, decidedly less cool team?
5. New England Patriots
Entering the top five are the New England Patriots, which have increased their chances of participating in the final matchup to 7% following a 29 point bump to their Elo rating.
4. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have an 8% chance of winning the Super Bowl, despite being considered the number two contender just a few weeks back.
3. San Francisco 49ers
Thanks to a solid performance as of late, the San Francisco 49ers have a 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl. They currently boast a 1622 Elo rating, following a 10 point bump.
2. Denver Broncos
With a 12% chance of making it to the final matchup and winning the title are the Denver Broncos. Their recent 22 point bump has left them with an Elo rating of 1646 points.
1. Seattle Seahawks
According to the Nate Silver Model, the Seattle Seahawks are the most likely contender for the Super Bowl, with a 17% chance of being crowned the champions of the American football world. Their Elo rating continues to improve and currently sits at 1679 points.