Polen Capital: “Alibaba (BABA)’s Competitive Positioning and Growth Outlook Remains Intact”

Polen Capital Management, an investment management firm, published its “Polen Global Emerging Markets Growth Fund” second-quarter 2021 investor letter – a copy of which can be downloaded here. The Polen Global Emerging Markets Growth Composite Portfolio (the “Portfolio”) was largely flat for the quarter, returning 0.17% gross of fees. This trailed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (the “Index”) return of 2.29%. You can take a look at the fund’s top 5 holdings to have an idea about their top bets for 2021.

In the Q2 2021 investor letter of Polen Capital Management, the fund mentioned Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) and discussed its stance on the firm. Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Hangzhou, China-based e-commerce company with a $387.6 billion market capitalization. BABA delivered a -40.27% return since the beginning of the year, while its 12-month returns are down by -51.78%. The stock closed at $144.20 per share on October 1, 2021.

Here is what Polen Capital Management has to say about Alibaba Group Holding Limited in its Q2 2021 investor letter:

Alibaba also detracted from performance as the company continues to remain under regulatory scrutiny from both the Chinese State Administration for Market Regulation on antitrust concerns and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on ADR listing requirements. Despite the regulatory overhang, we believe that Alibaba’s competitive positioning and growth outlook remains intact, even if the company must pay fines or modify some business practices. We viewed the current valuation at <20x next twelve month’s earnings as a compelling opportunity to add to our position. Alibaba is the second largest position in the Portfolio.”

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA), Logo, big sign, People taking photos, offering, ipo, group, stock

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Based on our calculations, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) ranks 8th in our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. BABA was in 146 hedge fund portfolios at the end of the first half of 2021, compared to 135 funds in the previous quarter. Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) delivered a -36.17% return in the past 3 months.

Hedge funds’ reputation as shrewd investors has been tarnished in the last decade as their hedged returns couldn’t keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. Our research has shown that hedge funds’ small-cap stock picks managed to beat the market by double digits annually between 1999 and 2016, but the margin of outperformance has been declining in recent years. Nevertheless, we were still able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by 115 percentage points since March 2017 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that underperformed the market by 10 percentage points annually between 2006 and 2017. Interestingly the margin of underperformance of these stocks has been increasing in recent years. Investors who are long the market and short these stocks would have returned more than 27% annually between 2015 and 2017. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 in our quarterly newsletter.

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