PHX Minerals Inc. (NYSE:PHX) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

PHX Minerals Inc. (NYSE:PHX) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript November 9, 2023

Operator: Good morning and thank you for attending today’s PHX Minerals September 30, 2023 Quarter End Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines will be muted during the presentation of the call with an opportunity for Q&A at the end. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Rob Fink with FNK, IR. Please go ahead.

Rob Fink: Thank you operator. Hosting the call today are Chad Stephens, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ralph D’Amico, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Danielle Mezo, Vice President of Engineering. The earnings press release that was issued yesterday after the close is also posted on PHX’s Investor Relations website. Before I turn the call over to Chad, I’d like to remind everyone that during today’s call and during the Q&A session, management may make forward-looking statements regarding expected revenues, earnings, future plans, opportunities, and other expectations of the company. These estimates and other forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied on the call.

These risks are detailed in PHX Minerals’ most recent annual report on Form 10-K as such may be amended or supplemented by subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q or other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The statements made during this call are based upon information known to PHX as of today, November 9, 2023 and the company does not intend to update these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by law. With all that said, I’d like to now turn the call over to Chad. Chad, the call is yours.

Chad Stephens: Thanks Rob and thanks to all of you on this call for participating in PHX’s September 30, 2023 quarterly conference call. We appreciate your interest in the company. The sequential improvement in our financial results and the continued strengthening of our portfolio reflect the steady normalization of the natural gas macro environment, which has recovered from historically low prices. Since early this spring we have continued to express our rationale for projected improvement in the natural gas supply-demand, macro and price. Just over the last few weeks, the 12-month strip price has shown steady improvement. Recent volatility in natural gas prices reflects realized versus forecasted weather, which indicates one of the warmest Novembers since 1950.

However, underlying fundamentals including weekly EIA storage data shows a tight or undersupplied market on a weather adjusted basis. Demand for natural gas from the power grid continues to increase on a year-over-year basis and new LNG facilities construction appears to be on schedule. As we draw closer to the commissioning of these additional LNG facilities, we believe it will drive improvement in sentiment as well as prices in mid to late 2024. LNG export will be a significant demand driver in 2024 and 2025 and we believe that Haynesville will be the primary source to feed these LNG facilities. I believe this improving environment bodes well for our business in future quarters. During the third quarter, PHX continued to experience robust activity on our minerals, specifically in the SCOOP play of Oklahoma, where Continental and other operators appear to have started full field development of the Springboard III play with four rigs currently operating there.

We have consistently talked about this play being a catalyst for PHX and while we are still in the early stages of development, the results to date have exceeded our expectations. Our Haynesville Minerals also continued to be actively developed and we are encouraged about our current, well in progress inventory which Danielle will talk about in a moment, which is at as high as it has ever been and will continue to drive production growth in the coming quarters. We remain confident in meeting the updated 2023 production forecast we communicated last quarter which represents year-over-year annual growth rate for royalty production exceeding 20%. Additionally, we expect calendar 2024 royalty production growth to be similar to what we’ve achieved over the last few years.

This reflects the benefits of the strategy we implemented when I took over as full time CEO in spite of periods of challenging commodity prices. We will provide more detailed guidance in early 2024. With our strong margins, PHX continues to generate significant cash flow. This allows us to maintain ample liquidity as well as fund our mineral acquisition program. Given the strength of our business, the Board of Directors has approved a 33% increase in our fixed dividend rate to $0.03 per share per quarter. This is the fourth dividend increase since 2020 and represents an aggregate increase of 200% from the 2020 rate. At this point, I’d like to turn the call over to Danielle to provide a quick operational overview and then to Ralph to discuss the financials.

Danielle Mezo: Thanks, Chad and good morning to everyone participating on the call. For our September 30, 2023 quarter, total corporate production increased 2% from the prior sequential quarter to 2348 MMcfe. 80% of our quarterly production volumes were natural gas which aligns with our long-term position that natural gas is the key transition fuel for sustainable energy future. Oil represented 12% of production volume and NGL represented 8%. Quarterly royalty production increased 3% sequentially to 2073 MMcfe. Compared to the same quarter last year, royalty volumes have increased by 13% and 26% for the trailing four quarters. The volume growth over the last 12 months is a result of the successful execution of our mineral acquisition program.

It is important to note that as a mineral holder, we do not control timing on well development. So there can be some volatility on quarter-to-quarter basis and volumes associated with our business model are better evaluated on a rolling 12 months basis. Our total corporate volumes were down 9% year-over-year, which is due to the sale of our non-op working interest assets in early 2023. On the working interest side, production volumes declined 7% sequentially to 275 MMcfe in the September 30, 2023 quarter as a result of natural decline and some wells being worked over by the operators. Note that we are not participating in new working interest wells, so working interest volumes will continue to decrease relative to our total volumes and become less relevant to the business.

Royalty volumes represented 88% of total production during our September 30, 2023 quarter. As recently as calendar year 2021 royalty volumes were only 45% of our total volume. As we have grown our royalty volumes and divested of our non-op working interest, the quality of our asset base is enhanced with improving margins which Ralph will talk about shortly. As we have high graded our asset base, this provides a much stronger collateral base with which to support our bank credit facility. During the quarter ended September 30, third party operators active on our mineral acreage converted 71 gross or 0.155 net wells in progress or WIP to producing wells compared to 81 gross or 0.3 net WIPs converted to PDP in the quarter ended June 30. The majority of new welss brought online are located in the Haynesville and SCOOP.

At the same time, our inventory of wells in progress on our minerals which includes ducks, wells being drilled and permits filed increased to 278 gross or 1.1 net well, an all-time high compared to the 272 gross or 0.91 net wells reported as of June 30. The continued track record of well conversions and replenishment of the inventory of wells in progress shows the repeatability of our business strategy. Additionally, we have mineral interest under a deep inventory of approximately 2000 gross undrilled locations that will continue to feed this WIP activity. In addition to our WIP, we regularly monitor third party operator rig activities in our focus areas and observed 14 rigs present on PHX Minerals acreage as of October 9. Additionally, we had 56 rigs active within 2.5 miles of PHX ownership.

In summary, we continue to see steady development in both our legacy and recently acquired mineral assets, which should lead to annually increasing royalty volumes. Now I will turn the call to Ralph to discuss financials.

Ralph D’Amico: Thanks, Danielle and thank you to everyone for being on the call today. Natural gas, oil and NGL sales revenues increased 23% on a sequential quarter basis to a total of $8.9 million. Breaking down this number further, royalty sales revenues increased 27% to $7.9 million due to a 3% increase in royalty production volumes and 23% higher realized commodity prices. Working interest sales revenues increased 1% to $1 million as a result of lower production volumes and 8% higher realized commodity prices. Realized natural gas prices averaged $2.40 per MCF, 25% higher than the prior sequential quarter. Realized oil prices averaged $78.48 per barrel, 6% higher and NGLs averaged $20.35 per barrel, 8% higher. Realized hedge gains for the quarter were 603,000.

For the quarter, approximately 46% of our natural gas, 35% of our oil and none of our NGL production volumes were hedged at average prices of $3.26 and $74.92 respectively. Approximately 42% of our anticipated remaining calendar 2023 natural gas production has downside protection at approximately $3.35 per MCF. On the oil side, approximately 41% of our anticipated production has downside protection at approximately $71.16 per barrel. Most of our natural gas hedges are structured as costless collars, which means that we also have upside on these volumes close to the $6 range. Our current hedge position is available in our most recently filed 10-Q. Total transportation, gathering and marketing expenses decreased 23% on a sequential quarter basis to 694,000 and decreased to 23% on a per Mcfe basis to $0.30 per MCF, primarily because of higher Haynesville volumes as a percentage of total volumes which have lower associated transportation costs and where we have a meaningful number of cost free leases.

Production taxes decreased 16% on a sequential quarter-over-quarter basis to approximately 388,000 due to higher production in Louisiana which applies its tax rate to production volumes and not revenues. LOE associated with our legacy non-operated working interest wells increased 32% on a sequential quarter basis to 414,000. We continue to have discussions with operators of our legacy working interest assets regarding escalating operating costs and overhead charges. Cash G&A was down 10% to $2.24 million compared to the prior sequential quarter. On a per Mcfe basis, G&A decreased by 11%. We continue to focus on the cost side of the business and expect that the per G&A costs will continue to decrease going forward as we grow production and scale the business while maintaining absolute cash G&A in line with recent quarters.

Adjusted EBITDA was $6.3 million in our quarter ended September 30, 2023 as compared to $4.1 million in the June 30, 2023 quarter. I’d also like to point out that our EBITDA margins are higher than they have been in at least the last five years as we continue to show success in our minerals only strategy and we expect margins to continue to expand as we scale up the business. DD&A was down 9% to $2 million compared to the prior sequential quarter. Net income for the quarter was $1.9 million or $0.05 per share compared to a net loss of $40,000 or effectively $0.00 per share for the prior sequential quarter. We had total debt of $30 million $750,000 as of September 30 compared to $23.75 million as of June 30 as we partially funded our previously announced acquisition package totaling $13.4 million in September with cash on hand and debt.

Our debt to trailing 12-month EBITDA was 1.31 times at September 30, 2023. Additionally, during our regularly scheduled borrowing base redetermination, our bank group increased our advanced rate from $45 million to $50 million. Lastly, I’d like to remind everyone about our previously announced change to a calendar year fiscal year. As such, our next earnings report will be for the full year ended December 31, 2023, which will be released in early March 2024. With that, I’d like to turn the call over for Chad for some final remarks.

Chad Stephens: Thanks, Ralph. As I commented in my opening remarks, we are very pleased with our achievements over the last year and the momentum it provides us moving into 2024. We have good current rig activity on and around our mineral position in both the SCOOP and Haynesville. Our royalty volume growth remains on trend for double digit production growth in 2024 and we continue to generate good acquisition deal flow. Additionally, with our trending growth in operating cash flow, our Board of Directors approved a 33% increase in our dividend of $0.03 per quarter and our bank group increased our borrowing base from $45 to $50 million. I think these two important events highlight our quality asset base and sustainability of our business model.

The company continues to make notable progress only through the hard work of our dedicated employees and the keen wisdom provided by our Board. So in closing, I thank them for their efforts. We do look forward to keeping you updated. This concludes the prepared remarks portion of the call. Operator, please open up the queue for questions.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

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Q&A Session

Derrick Whitfield: Good morning and thanks for your time.

Chad Stephens: Hi Derrick.

Ralph D’Amico: Hi Derrick.

Derrick Whitfield: For my first question, I wanted to focus on your growth outlook with the understanding that you’ll offer firm 2024 guidance next quarter. Could you help frame your trajectory given the strength you experienced this quarter in all gross and the flattest improving WIP inventory that you have in the Anadarko and Hainesville regions, respectively?

Chad Stephens: Ralph, do you want to talk about that?

Ralph D’Amico: Sure. Yes, I mean I think Derrick I think it’s all — we have that level of confidence given the well in progress inventory, right. I mean you continue to see active development and with 1.1 wells in progress on a net basis, right. And you continue to see new permits being filed on us on our minerals every week that we monitor it. I think it’s pretty — it’s a pretty good assumption that those wells should be coming online over the next I guess 12 to 14 months through the end of 2024. And based on that on just that, that amount of wells in progress, we think we can achieve the same growth rate as we have over the last few years. And clearly that can be accelerated, right, if there is additional rig activity coming online as well. So we’ll provide some more guidance, some more specific numbers as Chad mentioned early in 2024.

Chad Stephens: It is Chad. As I said in my prepared remarks, we’re seeing that double digit greater than 20% year-over-year growth with all of the rig activity, the ducks and the WIPs. The oil you’re referring to was really specifically related to some Bakken wells that were completed. There has been some increased activity up there, but more than that was some of these wells that we continue to talk about, the Continental is completed in the Springboard III area that have a higher oil component to it and we’re really excited about the performance of those, the early performance of those wells.

Derrick Whitfield: That’s great. And for my follow up, I wanted to ask for your perspective on the M&A landscape and your focus markets. As you guys are likely aware, Sitio announced yesterday at PSA for an asset package in the Anadarko and Appalachian Basin that sold for approximately 9 times EBITDA on our numbers. Well, definitely a positive read through from a valuation perspective for you. It would appear the environment is getting a bit more competitive in your areas or those basins. Could you share your thoughts on that transaction and what you’re seeing on the competitive landscape side?

Ralph D’Amico: Yes. We had actually looked at some of those assets. They originally came from the old Brigham Minerals organization that merged in to become Sitio. And after that merger, we had done some unsolicited discussions around that and just couldn’t come to evaluation. What was paid was much richer than we could justify, so good for Sitio for getting that price. They were good assets but at that price it was difficult for us to make a decent return. So I think that demonstrates, one we’re out there in the marketplace in the relevant deal flow, but we’re also, we we use our technical analysis and our financial analysis to be disciplined about what we’re buying and the economic returns that we’re trying to get for our shareholders.

Chad Stephens: Yeah, Derrick, I would just add also that sort of the — as we call it our bread and butter on the smaller acquisitions that we try to aggregate that the deal flow there is continues to be very robust. And I think that our view is that we sort of have our pick of the litter effectively. There is enough deals where we can be very methodical and disciplined and achieve the best risk adjusted returns as possible by following the same process that we have over the last going on four years now.

Derrick Whitfield: That’s great. Thanks for your time.

Chad Stephens: Thanks, Derrick.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Meade with Johnson Rice. Please proceed with your question.

Charles Meade: Good morning, Chad to you, Ralph and the whole PHX team. I wanted to ask, yes I wanted to ask about the — a bit more detail on those Continental wells that I think you referred to just a moment ago. And specifically, I think it’s Slide 23 of your updated presentation. You’ve got, I think, pads three and four are two different core bit pads that were drilled by Continental. And it looks to me like the wells, I believe, to the north were targeting the Sycamore, the Sycamore section. And to the south, they were targeting the Woodford section. So my question is this. First, would you characterize how pleased you are with those results? And then the second question is whether the choice of the Sycamore versus the Woodford is an either or sort of thing, like pick one target or is it a — is it can you do both? In other words, is there potential down the line for Continental to stack Sycamore in the south and add a Woodford to the north?

Chad Stephens: Charles, good question. I’m going to let our reservoir engineer, Danielle, answer that question as she tracks the well results and the performance pretty closely. Danielle?

Danielle Mezo: Yes. Thank you, Charles. So, yes, we’re very pleased with Continental’s results. This has been an excellent test of concept for them. So far, we’ve seen, on the production side, outperformance to our original type curves. We’ve seen that these zones co produce very well together. It is definitely not an either or situation. We fully expect that they will coproduce and wine rack those two layers. This is an extremely thick section in this part of the scoop play, and we do expect that there are multiple benches. You can see that there is a schematic on Page 24 of our corporate presentation as well. Just the thickness here would allow them to do two benches in each of those zones as well. So beyond this test, we would expect future tests to even stack that further and have even further recovery down the road.

So, yes, we’re very pleased with the results of that test, and we expect them to fully take that development bottle and start walking it across the field there.

Charles Mead: So that’s a lot of upside, Dan. And Ralph, maybe this might be for you if you took the earlier kind of M&A question. I wonder if you could characterize for us, I guess the baseline or the conventional wisdom is that when we see volatility in commodity prices, it’s harder to get deals done because it’s harder to get, there’s just less of a chance to get buyers expectations and sellers expectations to overlap. But I wonder if you could comment on whether you’re seeing that and whether that’s a dynamic more generally that is valid in the kinds of deals you guys are trying to do.

Ralph D’Amico: To an extent, I would agree with that. But I think that if you look at our average deal size and the deals that we did in September, what that basically shows is, again, there is a lot of running room, a lot of deal flow that we look at, even when there is volatility. I think if gas prices are moving, let’s hypothetically just use between $3 and $3.50. Even if it’s whipsawing $3, $4, whatever it may be, at that price, there’s still the ability to go find pretty good opportunities where sellers expectations are reasonable. I think it’s when gas prices get like we saw in spring, right? When you get substantially below $3, I think the mineral holders effectively go, there’s very little holding cost to us, just waiting for a recovery in prices, and then they choose not to transact, which is exactly what we experienced, and we were patient, and then we executed on a great set of deals in September.