On the August 26 episode of Mad Money, a caller mentioned that they had purchased 1,000 shares of Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) at $54 a couple of weeks prior, watched the price go up to $150, and asked what they should do. Jim Cramer replied:
Here’s what I would do: I think that you have to take a little bit off. But I have also, because of my daughter who had melanoma and fortunately beat it, done a huge amount of work on the vaccine, and I got to tell you, I would hold on to this stock because I think the vaccine is very for real.
Moderna shares surged 177% on August 19 after the company and Merck & Co. announced that their personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, intismeran autogene, met the primary and key secondary endpoints in a Phase 3 melanoma trial involving 1,137 patients. The result gives Moderna its strongest late-stage evidence yet that its mRNA platform can work as a therapeutic cancer treatment. However, the detailed Phase 3 data have not been released, and investors should not confuse the new results with the 49% reduction in recurrence or death and 59% reduction in distant metastasis or death reported in the earlier Phase 2b study.
Moderna’s Financials Still Tell a Different Story
The clinical breakthrough arrived well before Moderna, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) financial turnaround. The company generated $145 million of second-quarter 2026 revenue and reported a $782 million GAAP net loss, while continuing to target cash breakeven in 2028. It ended June with $6.9 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and investments, although it subsequently paid $950 million related to a litigation settlement.
Bear Case: The Stock May Be Ahead of the Evidence
The bear argument is that Moderna, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock has repriced faster than the fundamental business has been proven. Its market value increased by tens of billions of dollars following the announcement of a trial whose detailed Phase 3 data remain outstanding. Regulatory approval is still required, while personalized cancer vaccines must overcome significant manufacturing and logistical challenges. Success in melanoma also does not guarantee comparable results in lung, bladder, kidney, or other cancers.
Furthermore, the company’s August 27 announcement of a planned $2 billion convertible-notes offering reinforces the point. The additional capital gives Moderna greater flexibility to develop its oncology opportunity, but also highlights the investment required before the program can become a substantial source of cash flow. Potential future dilution is another consideration.
Institutional Positioning and Short Interest
Institutional interest was already increasing before the latest rally. Insider Monkey’s tracking of more than 1,000 hedge funds shows 49 hedge fund holders in the second quarter, down from 52 in the first quarter. As per Insider Monkey, Patrick Degorce’s Theleme Partners was the most prominent hedge fund shareholder in the quarter with over 8 million shares. Short interest stands at roughly 14%-15% of float, which shows meaningful skepticism, but not an extreme speculative short position.
The next major test for Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) is the detailed Phase 3 melanoma dataset, followed by regulatory progress and results from its other oncology programs. Investors will also need evidence that personalized manufacturing can scale economically and that the company remains on track toward its 2028 cash-breakeven target. At its August 26 closing price of $149.66, Moderna had a market capitalization of roughly $60 billion, meaning investors are paying primarily for future products rather than current earnings.
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