Is BRSL a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Brightstar Lottery PLC on O Substack de Vinicius904’s Substack by The Cash Flow Machine. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BRSL. Brightstar Lottery PLC’s share was trading at $12.66 as of May 6th. BRSL’s trailing and forward P/E were 153.00 and 11.24 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Brightstar Lottery (BRSL) emerged as a pure-play global lottery operator after the former International Game Technology sold its gaming and digital divisions to Apollo Global Management, leaving behind a business centered entirely on lottery infrastructure and operations. The company provides lottery terminals, ticket processing systems, digital lottery platforms, and operational support for nearly 90 lottery customers worldwide, including more than half of all U.S. lottery jurisdictions.
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These government-backed contracts are highly regulated, long duration, and extremely difficult to replace, giving Brightstar infrastructure-like economics with recurring revenue, strong customer retention, and high operating margins. The business generates substantial free cash flow because once the infrastructure is deployed, incremental ticket sales carry minimal additional costs. Lottery demand has also historically remained resilient during economic downturns, making Brightstar’s cash flows defensive and highly predictable.
The spin-off created a temporary market dislocation as investors who previously owned IGT for casino gaming or digital betting exposure exited the stock following the restructuring, rebranding, and portfolio reshuffling. However, the underlying business became simpler, more focused, and easier to value. Management has already used proceeds from the asset sale to reduce debt while simultaneously launching a large special dividend, regular dividend, and significant share repurchase program, creating an unusually attractive shareholder yield.
Brightstar’s recently renewed Italian Lotto license further strengthens its long-term earnings profile by securing access to one of the world’s most valuable lottery markets for years ahead. Despite these advantages, Brightstar trades materially below peers on an EV/EBITDA basis, leaving substantial upside potential if the market rerates the company closer to comparable lottery operators.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) by LongTermValue Research in April 2025, highlighting its dominant online sports betting position, strong brand, and expansion across legalized U.S. states despite regulatory risks. DKNG’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 27.93% since our coverage. The Cash Flow Machine shares a similar view but emphasizes Brightstar Lottery’s infrastructure-like lottery monopoly, recurring cash flows, and valuation gap post spin-off restructuring.
Brightstar Lottery PLC is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held BRSL at the end of the fourth quarter which was 32 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of BRSL as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than BRSL and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
