Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc (NYSE:FNP) , a designer and marketer of premium fashion brands, has undergone a major transformation. By boldly discarding old labels and emphasizing new trendier ones, the new Fifth & Pacific looks like a very interesting company with a compelling valuation and great potential.
Out with the old, in with the new
A sale of one or both of these lines would not be surprising, since Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc (NYSE:FNP)’s future really depends on the kate spade name. Since its 2006 purchase, kate spade has grown to an expected $750 million in sales for 2013 and a possible $1.2 billion by the end of 2016. A key component of this growth is the Kate Spade Saturday label. Launched earlier this year, it’s a younger and more affordable version of the main brand, and on its own could grow to as much as $275 million in sales by 2016.
What’s the new Fifth & Pacific worth?
Maybe the best way to value Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc (NYSE:FNP) is a sum-of-the-parts method because of the probable divestment of its brands. This technique entails valuing each line separately and then combing them for a total company worth.
Juicy Couture looks most likely to be sold. Its latest quarterly performance, though consistent with expectations, has been disappointing. Gross margins were down significantly and sales dropped 11%. The recent hiring of a new brand CEO implies a turnaround plan. There is something to work with, with 75 specialty retail and 53 outlet stores with a respectable $646 of annual sales per square foot.
Assuming annual revenue of around $450 million, which is discounted from the $487 million booked in the last 12 months, with a valuation at 1.0x sales, Juicy Couture might be worth around $450 million, or roughly $2 a share net of debt.
Lucky Brand’s latest quarter was much better. Total sales increased 16%, driven primarily by the timing impact of wholesale shipments. Lucky continued to generate strong full-price selling, which resulted in a sizable direct–to-consumer gross margin improvement.
The label ran 171 specialty retail stores and 50 outlet stores with annual sales per square foot of $462. This line might be worth around $550 million, about $4 a share net of debt, based on 1.1x its trailing 12-month sales of $478 million.
A comparable can help verify if these valuations are reasonable. True Religion Apparel, Inc. (NASDAQ:TRLG), the maker of designer jeans worn by celebrities, recently agreed to be bought for about $822 million. Based on expected 2013 sales of $517 million and an estimated 9% to 10% top-line growth rate, that purchase amount was roughly 1.6x revenue. This deal and a recent buyout of teen retailer rue21 at slightly less than 1.0x sales seems to indicate that our value estimates are probably in the ballpark.
The real value rests with kate spade
Fifth & Pacific Companies Inc (NYSE:FNP)’s crown jewel is kate spade. Its sales in the last quarter were $141 million, a 63.1% increase compared to 2012. The brand’s 86 specialty retail stores, 41 outlet stores and 35 concessions indicate it has plenty of room to grow and the $1,144 annual sales per square foot figure shows its luxury standing.
