Data by market research firm FactSet showed that over the past decade, roughly 74–78% of companies on the benchmark S&P 500 typically beat analyst estimates on earnings per share in any given quarter. The average aggregate earnings surprise has historically been around 7–8% above estimates, indicating that while earnings beats are common, most are modest rather than exceptionally large. During unusually strong earnings seasons, the magnitude of surprises increases substantially. For example, in the first quarter of 2026, FactSet reported that 84% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS estimates, while aggregate earnings came in 18.2% above consensus forecasts, the strongest aggregate surprise since early 2021.
Similarly, Reuters, citing LSEG data, has reported that strong earnings seasons often see around 75% to 80% of companies beating analyst expectations, although the proportion achieving very large surprises, such as 15% or more above consensus, is considerably smaller. Consequently, while approximately three-quarters of listed companies typically beat EPS estimates each quarter, only a minority deliver double-digit surprise percentages. The earnings season for the second quarter of 2026 is in full swing. 76 companies posted their second quarter earnings on July 27 and ten of them delivered high double-digit surprises.
Earnings Alpha: The Selective Outliers That Blew Out Consensus Yesterday
10. First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGBI)
First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:FGBI) posted EPS of $0.17 in the second quarter of 2026, exceeding past expectations by $0.08.
9. Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FMAO)
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:FMAO) registered $0.86 in earnings per share in its latest quarterly results, topping expectations by $0.19.
8. Northeast Bank (NASDAQ:NBN)
Northeast Bank (NASDAQ:NBN) finished at earnings per share of $4.05, topping estimates by $0.65.
7. FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ:FSUN)
FirstSun Capital Bancorp (NASDAQ:FSUN) posted earnings per share of $0.45 for the second quarter, beating expectations by $0.09.
6. Happen, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAPN)
Happen, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAPN) posted earnings per share of $0.50 in the second quarter of the year, beating analyst targets by $0.08.
5. Agilysys, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS)
Agilysys, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGYS) surprised Wall Street with EPS of $0.49 in the second quarter of the year, beating expectations by $0.31.
4. Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:APLD)
Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ:APLD) shattered earnings per share estimates in the second quarter results released on July 27, ending at $0.04, and beating analyst predictions by $0.23.
3. Sanmina Corporation (NASDAQ:SANM)
Sanmina Corporation (NASDAQ:SANM) surprised Wall Street with earnings results on July 27, with earnings per share finishing at $3.31, beating estimates by $0.52.
2. Amkor Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMKR)
Amkor Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMKR) blew past consensus estimates in earnings per share, posting EPS of $0.70, topping expectations by $0.22.
1. F5, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV)
F5, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) registered $4.73 EPS in the second quarter of the year, beating expectations by $0.73.
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