I’m not holding my breath for Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) to return to its robust growth levels of the dot-com era. But with shares making new 52-week highs, it seems that the Street is at least willing to consider that this company is far from a dinosaur. But how well is Cisco’s transition going? While Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) is sometimes loathed for being “too big,” management has consistently executed to keep the company relevant in end markets such as software-defined networking, or SDN.
So far so good, but…
Granted, Cisco didn’t guide expecting an all-star performance. But the company has a history of under-projecting. And it’s still unclear when tech spending is going to fully recover. Plus, enterprise spending has yet to show clear signs that CIOs are ready to loosen those purse strings. To that end, the company has been moving aggressively to establish a presence in areas such as wireless and data center.
These are good businesses. And the new acquisitions such as BroadHop should help strengthen Cisco’s mobile policy control initiatives. But it’s unclear whether Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) can be as ground-breaking in mobile like Aruba Networks (NASDAQ:ARUN) or catch fire like Palo Alto Networks Inc (NYSE:PANW) in security. That’s not to suggest that Cisco’s core routing and switching businesses have become chopped liver. But they are not the pillars of the company that they used to be.
In the recent quarter, switch revenue grew 3% year over year, while routing revenue shed more than 5%. This followed a soft first-quarter, when both dropped 2% sequentially and 3% year over year. For that matter, the routing business, which now comprises of 16.1% of Cisco’s total revenue, shed more than 1% sequentially. This means routing is now 1% less of a focus in Cisco’s business. And I think that’s how management wants it.
Plus, it’s clear that Cisco is transitioning from hardware. Or at the very least, the company is looking to offset that focus by deploying new resources toward software. And I think the company’s making good progress. But the Street still seems unsure. This is the only way I can define why both Juniper and F5 trade at price-to-earnings ratios that are more than four times and twice the valuation of Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO). This is despite Cisco’s market lead. It’s as if the Street is saying, “You’re no longer a laggard, but you’re in the wrong markets.”
Better results will propel the shares higher
While Cisco does not post the double-digit growth of F5 Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) or Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:RVBD) , this company seems more serious about the bottom line and just posting consistent results. On the other hand, neither company can match Cisco’s cash flow and returns on capital. And I think Cisco understands this, even though that seems to escape investors.
