Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) closed 58% higher at $6.65 on August 14 after the company said the FDA was willing to review an amendment containing 24-month data for deramiocel, its Duchenne muscular dystrophy treatment. The shares had traded as much as 94% above the previous close before surrendering part of the gain.
The rebound recovered only a fraction of the losses triggered by the regulatory setback. Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) remained 66% below its July 24 close of $19.70 after an advisory panel voted 9–3 that the available evidence did not establish deramiocel’s effectiveness for Duchenne-related cardiomyopathy. The update created the prospect of a longer review, although no revised action date had been announced.
BULL CASE
The strongest argument for Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) is that the application remains under active review. Management plans to submit 24-month open-label extension data centered on upper-limb function and said the FDA would review the amendment and postpone its August 22 decision deadline after receiving it.
HOPE-3 was statistically powered around its upper-limb primary endpoint, while cardiac left ventricular ejection fraction was a prespecified key secondary endpoint. For Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR), pursuing a skeletal-muscle indication would align the regulatory case more closely with the trial’s primary objective.
Some panelists also viewed the upper-limb evidence more favorably than the cardiac case covered by the formal vote. Roth Capital expects the FDA to treat the submission as a major amendment, potentially extending the review by approximately three months. That would give regulators time to assess whether the treatment effect persisted through 24 months.
Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) had $237.9 million in cash and marketable securities at June 30. Management is slowing commercial spending while preserving launch readiness, giving the company time to pursue the revised regulatory path.
BEAR CASE
Reviewing an amendment is not the same as accepting its conclusions. FDA staff and the advisory panel raised questions involving analytical changes, missing data, measurement uncertainty, and whether patients with largely normal heart function at baseline represented the cardiomyopathy population covered by the original indication.
The statistical dispute is particularly important for Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR). Capricor’s SAP 3.0 analysis produced p=0.029 for the upper-limb endpoint, although the FDA considered that methodology post hoc and obtained p=0.24 using the original prespecified analysis. Longer follow-up does not automatically resolve that disagreement.
The proposed 24-month evidence also comes from an open-label extension. It may demonstrate durability, but it cannot provide a randomized, placebo-controlled comparison through 24 months. Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) still has to show that the extension strengthens an evidence package the FDA considers reliable enough for approval.
The concentration risk is substantial. Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) reported no first-half revenue, recorded $42.9 million in second-quarter operating expenses, paused programs unrelated to deramiocel, and continues to face a distribution dispute with NS Pharma.
INSIDER MONKEY’S HEDGE FUND DATA
The filings reflect positions held before the advisory-panel vote and subsequent rebound. According to Insider Monkey’s complete first-quarter 2026 snapshot, 31 hedge funds held Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAPR) from 27 hedge funds three months ago.
CONCLUSION
The FDA’s willingness to consider additional evidence materially reduced the risk of an immediate rejection, making the rebound understandable. It did not resolve the disagreement over Capricor’s statistical methodology or provide a controlled 24-month comparison.
Deramiocel has a possible approval path again, but the rally moved faster than the underlying regulatory certainty. Approval is back on the table; it is not yet back on track.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
