Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has officially entered its John Ternus era from a position of strength, but Wall Street believes that the next leg of growth depends on two unproven bets.
On September 2, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a Neutral rating on the stock with a $270.00 price target. The firm asserts that Apple’s ability to get off to a strong start under the new CEO depends on the expected foldable iPhone Ultra and broad price increases.
Without these two factors, Luria said revenue declines would have been expected next year.
Apple Comes From a Position of Strength
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) enters the Ternus era from a position of strength. For the fiscal Q3, revenue jumped 16% year-over-year to $109.4 billion, with iPhone revenues surging almost 22% to $54.25 billion.
Cook has already transformed the company from $350 billion to a $4.5 trillion behemoth. The next test for Ternus, therefore, is to not to make more cash but to prove there is enough growth and product innovation to keep the momentum strong for Apple.
While an iPhone 18 may bring incremental improvement over its predecessor, a foldable iPhone Ultra could offer Apple a new premium tier. This is especially beneficial considering how incremental improvement from conventional smartphones is becoming harder. With a successful foldable iPhone launch, Apple could increase its average selling prices and give itself another revenue lever.
The tech giant has also been pointed out by bears as being an AI laggard, Luria also believes that Apple’s position in AI has been improving. One aspect of proof is the revamped Siri AI introduced at WWDC26, offering the chance at tighter integration of AI into the Apple ecosystem and giving customers reasons to upgrade.
A longer product runway, particularly things like a glass iPhone, AirPods with a built-in camera, and possible smart glasses were also highlighted by the firm as factors investors will be looking for down the line.
Apple’s Strength Also Serves as its Bear Case
iPhone revenue rose 22% last quarter, which is why it would need to reap stronger results to impress. However, the tech giant has already guided for a slower revenue growth of 9 to 11% in the September quarter, and even pointed at supply chain headwinds.
Besides the strong quarter comparison, another bear case for Apple is that the iPhone 18 may only offer minimal incremental revenues. This is worrisome especially if the foldable iPhone fails to initiate upgrades or the foldable remains a niche premium product.
The longer term product pipeline also highlights some risks. Luria particularly highlighted Meta creating privacy concerns amongst consumers in the smart glasses category.
Hedge Funds Haven’t Abandoned Apple Stock
According to Insider Monkey’s database tracking more than a thousand hedge funds, 169 hedge funds held positions in the stock at the end of the second quarter, declining almost negligibly from 170 in the prior one.
Berkshire Hathaway continues to maintain its 227.9 million-share Apple position, Arrow Street Capital has boosted its position by 54%, while Fisher Asset Management increased its stake by 3% in the stock.
Overall, DA Davidson’s note reflects a key test for Ternus: whether the new CEO can deliver enough product innovation to drive the next leg of growth for Apple.
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