Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Vincent Roche: Yes. Good question, Ambrish. So yes, look, I mean, Comms is just a piece of ADI’s overall story. We’ve actually seen — I mean, we have two components as well. We’ve got wire line, we have wireless. I would say on the wire line side of things, we’ve seen the malaise going back into the late part of ’22, early part of ’23. So that’s really things like optical control for data center and carrier networks, and power. We’ve got a power business there as well. So we think we’ll see that, we expect to see CapEx somewhat recover in that space to be able to catch up with the needs, for example, driven by the explosion in computing power that’s required to handle the AI inflection here, for example. So — my sense is the wire line part will probably start its recovery in the first — second quarter of the year.

Wireless is a little harder to call. It’s very, very dynamic. We all know that. The developed countries, particularly North America, 5G deployments, which have really been focused on coverage rather than capacity. They’re going to be weaker than we thought. So that’s probably going to give us headwinds for how long, we don’t know, but I think it could be several quarters during our FY ’24. India has been very strong this year, of course. And I think we’re expecting to see more commitments to lay in both coverage and capacity in India during our FY ’24. So look, we’ve got leadership in many of these areas, like optical control systems, 5G, software-defined solutions. It’s really a question of timing in my mind. But — there’s a lot of uncertainty in the communications market in totality and particularly in wireless at this point.

So hopefully, that gives you the answer to your question.

Ambrish Srivastava: Well, I was asking about the overall business, Vince, not just about the Comms, sorry.

Vincent Roche: Okay. yes. Look, I think, Ambrish, the overall business. We see some trends, for example, that will transcend the inventory digestion problem. And even the macro-economy areas like digital healthcare, like aerospace and defense, the sustainable energy theme that we spoke to a little while ago. So again, I will just reiterate my sense is the inventory digestion problem will last probably two, three quarters, and then we’ll get back into a unit volume increase from there on.

Ambrish Srivastava: Thank you.

Vincent Roche: Thanks Ambrish.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein. Your line is open.

Stacy Rasgon: Hi, guys, thanks so much for taking my question. Prashanth, I don’t want to be pedantic on Q1, but I know you said right now, down seasonal, but also as an extra week. That extra week, if I just linearize it is like a plus 7. So do those cancel out? Or is it like it’s the week between Christmas and New Year, so it’s not a lot of revenue? Or just how do I think about the balance of those two things into Q1, assuming a Q1 that was…

Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah: So when I gave you my comments of down seasonal that was on a 13-week basis, the 14-week was just a reminder as you model it. So Mike, do you want to do the math, but I think you’re essentially thinking about it right.

Michael Lucarelli: Yes. So as Prashanth said, let’s take a first 13-week quarter. What happens normally in 1Q and a 13-week quarter our business is down, call it, 5%, plus or minus, total business. Now with an extra week, that adds about 7.5%, both on the revenue side and the OpEx side. So there’s two pieces, normal, down 5% total company, in the 14-week quarter, you can add 7.5% of revenue and OpEx. That’s the best way to think about it.

Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah: And thank you for clarifying that, Stacy, I wasn’t clear in my answer.