Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah: Why don’t I take that, Vivek. So first, quick comments just to make sure everyone has the Q4 guide, correct. So on the channel, as I said in the prepared remarks, we are shipping in below the forecast we have from our channel partners. So we are intentionally bringing channel inventories down to help set us up for some better strength. The — included in the guide is the backlog coverage has some turns, but less than normal given the higher level of uncertainty. So we would need some more turns and positive book-to-bill, which Vince mentioned is likely to be a quarter or two out. And then just from an end market standpoint, we’ve got all end markets down quarter-over-quarter. So as you know, we don’t guide out further than the current quarter, but some color is I think you essentially have it right.

There’s no reason to think that first quarter would not be down seasonal on a, which would call it, mid-single digit quarter-over-quarter. But that we — our view is going to be driven by the holidays and the customer decisions to reduce inventory as they go into the year-end. So we’re not, at this point, seeing a more meaningful step down in Q1 based on what we can know today. And I will just remember to plant and everyone as you start to model out Q1 that every once in a couple of years, we have a 14-week quarter, and that will be Q1 of ’24. And then on gross margins, I think we’re actually quite proud of our gross margin story here that we’ve been — we’ve messaged a number of times that we would have the ability to maintain a 70% gross margin in a — on a trailing 12-month basis with a peak to trough decline of 15%.

Q4 is down about 17% from the Q2 peak. And while we didn’t give you a gross margin number, if you impute it from the OpEx math that I gave you, you’ll see that we are able to hold that north of 70%, and we’ll continue to work that. For Q1, gross margins, my best sense now would be that we are likely to face a little more challenge on the utilization level as we bring inventory levels down, but we have been very successful in activating our swing capacity. We’re actually doing about 10% better on utilizations because we have swing than if we hadn’t activated it. So it’s been a very powerful lever for us. And we need to see how the math on all of that works out for Q1, but I wouldn’t expect Q1 to be notably different from kind of where we are for Q4.

Vincent Roche: Yes. I’d like to add one other comment, Vivek, to what Prashanth has said. So the other side of margin is pricing, and pricing is very stable. It’s very, very stable, resilient. I don’t expect that to change. And our products are very, very sticky. We’ve got tremendous life cycles and that part of our business, this is really a unit correction in the business rather than price or share.

Vivek Arya: Thanks for that. Helpful.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO. Your line is open.

Ambrish Srivastava: Hi. Thank you very much. This is old Ambrish, Young Mike, can feel free to chime in. I was looking at the year-over-year comms, and I look at TI as your closest peer rival competitor. Vince, they started going into a year-over-year decline in 4Q ’22 and you are just starting, and you said two to three quarters. So in the past history does suggest that usually on a year-over-year basis, we see roughly around four to five quarters of year decline. Is that the right way to think about your business? You said two to three quarters of digestion and I’m assuming that means year-over-year decline in reps, right?