Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Analog Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADI) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript August 23, 2023

Analog Devices, Inc. misses on earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $2.49 EPS, expectations were $2.53.

Operator: Good morning, and welcome to the Analog Devices Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I’d like to now introduce your host for today’s call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Sir, the floor is yours.

Michael Lucarelli: Thank you, Michelle, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our third quarter fiscal ’23 conference call. With me on the call today are ADI’s CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche; and ADI’s CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com. on to the disclosures. The information we’re about to discuss includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties as further described in our earnings release, and other periodic reports and other materials filed with the SEC. Actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking information, as these statements reflect our expectations only at the date of this call.

We undertake no obligation to update these statements except as required by law. Our comments today will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items. We are comparing our results to our historical performance, special items are also excluded from prior periods. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today’s earnings release. And with that, I’ll turn it over to ADI’s CEO and Chair, Vincent Roche. Vince?

Vincent Roche: Thank you, Mike, and a very good morning to you all. ADI executed well in the third quarter and delivered results within our expectations despite the challenging operating environment. Revenue was nearly $3.1 billion, led by growth in our Industrial and Automotive markets once again. Gross margin remained strong, above 72%, operating margin was nearly 48% and EPS was $249 million. This continued profitability reflects our portfolio’s resilience as well as the innovation premium that it commands. I want to turn to the current business environment now just for a moment. As we shared last quarter, we believe we’re in a period of customer inventory reconciliation following three consecutive years of steady growth.

Through our customer conversations, it’s evident these accelerating inventory adjustments relate to the weakening macro backdrop and ADI’s rapidly improving lead times. Importantly, we believe we shipped below end market consumption in the third quarter and expect to do so again in the fourth. This will help normalize our customers’ inventory more quickly and position us to return to growth more quickly in the coming quarters. Stepping back, while near-term dynamics or turbulence, our long-term confidence remains undiminished. Over the last several decades, we have enhanced the resiliency of our global business, defined by our diversified customer and product portfolio and flexible hybrid manufacturing model. This enables us to ensure softer demand periods while sustaining strategic investments to ensure that we capitalize on the upside when the business inflects.

It’s these characteristics and our alignment to numerous concurrent secular growth trends that give us confidence that ADI will deliver on our long-term model of 7% to 10% revenue CAGR. Now one area underpinning this growth outlook are the applications tied to sustainable use cases, which currently represents about 1/3 of our total revenue. And today, I want to unpack a vital part of this, the evolving electrification ecosystem that is driving growth in our industrial and automotive markets. As the world marches to net 0, we need to eliminate 51 gigatons of global greenhouse gases emitted every year. Fossil fuels are by far the largest contributor accounting for more than 75% of all emissions. And at the same time, global energy consumption is forecasted to increase by 50% by 2050.

A major unnecessary energy transition is underway and an upgraded and expanded energy grid is foundational to support a decarbonization pathway. Making the shift through renewable energy sources in both commercial and residential infrastructure as well as electric vehicles and global transportation will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. These moves also create new challenges in the generation distribution, consumption and smoothing of energy supply. ADI solutions are embedded across all phases of this electrification journey from upgrading the grid infrastructure to forming and managing the vehicle battery. The common thread woven through all these applications is the high-performance precision signal processing, control and power management capabilities they require, capabilities in which ADI excels.

Now today, I’ll bring the story to life at the application level, starting with grid infrastructure. Overall, today’s electrical grid is undergoing modernization to meet current and future demands. Historically, traditional energy sources like coal, oil and gas were centralized and distributed in one direction from the grid to the consumer. Today, renewable energy sources like wind and solar are more distributed necessitating a dynamic bidirectional flow of energy. To achieve this, the grid must be able to adjust performance across the network in real time, which requires an exponential increase in monitoring and storage capabilities. And for example, our collaboration with the Enel Group provides smart meters and grid digitalization solutions for distribution system operators.

Here, ADI’s control and sensing technologies are enabling high-performance, precision monitoring and data creation at the heart of the digital substation. And we’re leveraging our mixed-signal digital and algorithm technologies to enable greater intelligence at the grid’s edge. Now moving to energy storage systems, which are critical to mitigate intermittency issues across the network. ADI is a leader with our technologies used in 60% of energy storage systems across residential, commercial and grid scale networks. Leveraging our battery management system technology or BMS. We’re increasing capacity and improving energy utilization in energy storage systems, which maximizes the battery’s lifetime value. These monitoring and storage challenges extend to the grid’s edge as well, including EV charging stations, ADI’s energy metrology, isolation and sensing technologies, help enable a broader range of applications in AC and DC charging equipment.

In addition to these important applications in our highly diverse industrial segment, our high-performance signal processing platforms and domain expertise are helping to electrify the automotive market. Here, our technology is a key enabler in the transition from combustion engines to cleaner electric vehicles by increasing range and lowering cost. And I’ll start with BMS. As we’ve shared before, we are the leader in this area with our BMS solution designed into 16 of the top 20 EV manufacturers. We’re currently sampling our eighth generation solution, which utilizes software and algorithms to enable physical measurement capabilities all the way into the battery cell. These advances in edge processing change the game in how the internal battery health is managed, supporting faster charging and better range prediction.

An extension of this is our wireless BMS solution, a first in the industry. It has all the benefits of our wired solution and enables a scalable battery architecture, with quicker and more cost-effective production cycles. Currently, our wireless BMS is designed in at four OEMs, and we expect another large OEM to adopt it in the coming quarters. Given this momentum and the cutting-edge value proposition, we believe the wireless platform will represent a large portion of our BMS revenue by the end of the decade. And looking ahead, we’re broadening our EV capabilities beyond battery management and storage to power conversion solutions. Specifically, we’re developing a silicon carbide-based smart switch for bidirectional onboard charging that significantly reduces charger size and weight by over 50%, thus driving down cost.

Notably, this intelligent integrated switch enables the EV to transfer energy back into the network, creating a more reliable grid. And this innovation solution more than doubles our content opportunity per EV powertrain. So in summary, ADI is driven by a deep sense of purpose and a desire for our innovations to positively impact all stakeholders. We’re immensely proud of the role our technologies play to improve the well-being of humanity and indeed the planet, and I remain very confident in our future. Our portfolio of cutting-edge technologies, world-class talent base are aligned with an unprecedented number of attractive secular trends, where the semiconductor content per dollar of CapEx is increasing tremendously. This presents ADI with continued profitable growth opportunities as well as the ability to shape the future of industries.

And so with that, I’ll hand it over to Prashanth.

Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah: Thank you, Vince. Let me add my welcome to our third quarter earnings call. My comments today, with the exception of revenue will be on an adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today’s press release. While demand continued to soften throughout the quarter, ADI delivered nearly $3.1 billion revenue, in line with our guidance. This was driven by continued year-over-year growth for both Industrial and Automotive. Looking at our performance by end market. Industrial, which represented 53% of revenue, finished down 7% sequentially after a tremendous stretch of 13 straight quarters of sequential growth. On a year-over-year basis, revenue increased 4% with most applications up, led by sustainable energy as well as aerospace and defense, which each grew double digits.

Automotive, which represented 24% of revenue, was down modestly sequentially in line with our expectations. Year-over-year growth of 15% was broad-based. We saw continued outsized growth for ADI’s leading battery management and in-cabin connectivity solutions, which collectively increased nearly 30% year-over-year. Communications, which represented 12% of revenue, decreased double digits, both sequentially and year-over-year due to the broad-based inventory correction we flagged previously. And lastly, consumer, which represented 10% of revenue came in stronger than expected, finishing up 15% sequentially, but down 21% year-over-year. We remain optimistic that our second quarter marked the bottom for this business despite the ongoing inventory correction.

And now on to the rest of the P&L. Gross margin of 72.2% remains industry-leading, but declined sequentially due to lower utilization and product mix. Operating expenses of $752 million were roughly flat year-over-year and up sequentially. This quarter’s OpEx reflects the full impact of annual merit increases. Operating margin of 47.8% contracted 230 basis points year-over-year, roughly in line with the gross margin decline. Non-op expenses were $57 million, and our tax rate was 11.2%. All told, EPS came in at $2.49 within our guidance range. Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with over $1.1 billion of cash and a net leverage ratio of 0.8. Given the revenue pressures and our decision to hold more finished goods versus restocking the channel, inventory dollars increased and the days of inventory moved higher to 179.

As a result, channel inventory remains below our target level and slightly declined. Specifically, we strategically undershipped Asia, especially China, due to weaker demand trends. CapEx was $325 million for the quarter as we invest to enhance ADI’s global resiliency and offer our customers options on where their products are sourced. 2023 should represent the high watermark for CapEx, and we expect it to decline in 2024. Importantly, our investments do not include the benefits of tax credit and grant funds that we anticipate from both the U.S. and the European Chips Act. Over the trailing 12 months, we’ve generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow or 29% of revenue. And over the same period, we’ve returned nearly $5 billion to shareholders or over 130% of free cash flow via more than $3.3 billion in buybacks and more than $1.6 billion in dividends.

Now turning to the Q4 guidance. We expect the fourth quarter revenue to be $2.7 billion, plus or minus $100 million. This outlook assumes sell-in to be below sell-through. At the midpoint of our outlook, we expect all markets to be down sequentially given the broad-based inventory correction. On a relative basis, Auto and Consumer should perform a bit better than Industrial and Comms. Operating margin is expected to be 44% plus or minus 70 basis points. This margin outlook embeds planned utilization reductions and a decline in OpEx. Our tax rate is expected to be between 11% and 13%. And based on these inputs, adjusted EPS is expected to be $2 plus or minus $0.10. As our outlook is lower than expected, let me provide some context on what we’re experiencing and how we will navigate.

Our revenue outlook reflects the broad-based macro softness across all end markets, all geographies and customers both large and small. We are also strategically improving lead times to get a better view into demand and enhance customer satisfaction. Today, we’re shipping over 85% of our products within 13 weeks, and this is up from 35% a year ago. As Vince mentioned, we are seeing customers accelerate inventory adjustments due to both the softer environment and our lead time improvements. And as such, we’re taking measures to preserve the integrity of our balance sheet, cash flow and income statement. This includes further reducing utilization and lowering external wafer purchases with a goal to decrease inventory meaningfully in the coming quarters.

And importantly, as we’ve outlined before, we expect gross margins will maintain a 70% level on a trailing 12-month basis. This gross margin resiliency is a testament to the flexibility of our hybrid manufacturing model and our unique swing capacity capability. In addition to the naturally lower variable comp, we’re also taking steps to reduce total OpEx by roughly $50 million sequentially. So stepping back, we’re not ready to call the bottom yet but our history shows that we cycle up quickly. And when we do, we will achieve higher highs. ADI has built a very resilient business, rich with opportunities. Our diversification and exposure to numerous secular trends drives our durable earnings stream and solid free cash flow, enabling us to consistently return capital to shareholders.

And to that end, over the trailing 12 months, we’ve returned $5 billion to shareholders or more than 5% of our market cap. As this is my last ADI earnings call, I’d like to give a quick thank you to Vince for his mentorship and counsel over the past six years to the ADI Board, including our audit chair, Karen Golz, for their unwavering support and most importantly, to the world-class finance staff, including young Mike here for always reminding us of our commitments to you, the company’s owners. I look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks as we get on the road. Mike, let’s go to Q&A.

Michael Lucarelli: Thanks, Prashanth. I don’t think I’ve been called young in some time, but I appreciate that. Now let’s get to our Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] With that, can be our first question, please.

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Your line is open.

Tore Svanberg: Yes. Thank you. I have a question for Vince. So I know you’re not ready to call a bottom. But some industry observers would say that this sort of inventory build started maybe late 2021, early 2022 based on your guidance for the October quarter, you’re sort of back to that level. So then you’ve seen these cycles, you’ve seen many of them. They’re all different. But just wanted to get a sense for you what you think we’re getting close, especially given what I just said about that inventory adjustment now sort of being complete?

Vincent Roche: Yes. Thanks, Tore. When I look at this current cycle, the symptoms are always the same in these cycles, but the causes tend to have different components. And I think right now, there are two kind of inputs to this particular correction. I think one is the inventory in digestion that exists out there that has been building for 18, 24 months now. And the second, of course, is the macroeconomic situation, which is a major governor as well. But I think if you look at what we understand from the direct side of our business, for example, when we look at our largest customers revenue growth and their forecast compared to our growth at these very same customers, we believe that we’ve been shipping the low-end consumption in the third and will in the fourth quarter.

So I think one way to look at this is how long will the inventory correction take? My sense is it will be two to three quarters before we get through the inventory digestion cycle, and I think we’re positioned as a company to get beyond it quite fast because we’ve been managing our factories very carefully, managing our inventories, both on our own balance sheet as well as our distribution channel. So we’ve also, I think, taken a long-term view to the demand patterns of our customers. We haven’t, in any way, forced them into, for example, long-term supply agreements, essentially, at this point in the cycle, that will be forcing them to take products that they don’t really need. We’ve been managing our channel aggressively. So as I said, we’re keeping more inventory on our own balance sheet.

So again, we will get to distribute the supply ultimately where we think it’s needed when the recovery gets underway here. So that’s my sense, sorry. I mean, in the industry, if you look back to the dot com cycle, you look at the 2008 financial crisis cycle, most of the downturns tended to last three to four quarters. So my sense is over the next two, three quarters, we begin to see a recovery here, at least on the inventory side. And then it’s really a question of how does the macro-economy perform?

Tore Svanberg: Great perspective. Thank you.

Michael Lucarelli: Thanks Tori. Next question, please.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open.

Vivek Arya: Thanks Dan. Best wishes again to Prashanth on his next adventure. You said that you’re not ready to call the bottom yet and Vince, you mentioned that the inventory digestion period could last for some more time. How should we think about Q1 seasonality? It tends to be down kind of mid-single digit. Do you think we should be prepared for something different than that? Right? And if it is worse than kind of mid-single digit, do you still think that ADI can maintain gross margins above 70%. So just kind of puts and takes to help us align our models would be very useful.