Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript April 25, 2024

Altria Group, Inc. misses on earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $1.15 EPS, expectations were $1.16. Altria Group, Inc. isn’t one of the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds at the end of the third quarter (see the details here).

Operator: Good day and welcome to the Altria Group 2024 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Today’s call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Altria’s management and a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Mac Livingston, Vice President of Investor Relations for Altria Client Services. Please go ahead, sir.

Mac Livingston: Thanks, Savannah. Good morning and thank you for joining us. This morning, Billy Gifford, Altria’s CEO; and Sal Mancuso, our CFO, will discuss Altria’s first quarter business results. Earlier today, we issued a press release providing our results. The release presentation, quarterly metrics, and our latest corporate responsibility reports are all available at altrea.com. During our call today, unless otherwise stated, we’re comparing results to the same period in 2023. Our remarks contain forward-looking and cautionary statements and projections of future results. Please review the forward-looking and cautionary statements section at the end of today’s earnings release for various factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projections.

Future dividend payments and share repurchases remain subject to the discretion of our board. We report our financial results in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Today’s call will contain various operating results on both a reported and adjusted basis. Adjusted results exclude special items that affect comparisons with reported results. Descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations are included in today’s earnings release and on our website at altrea.com. Finally, all references in today’s remarks to tobacco consumers or consumers within a specific tobacco category or segment refer to existing adult tobacco consumers 21 years of age or older. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Billy.

Billy Gifford: Thanks, Mac. Good morning and thank you for joining us. We made meaningful progress in pursuit of our vision and our highly profitable traditional tobacco businesses continue to perform well in a challenging environment. In spite of the absence of an of effective regulatory environment, we saw continued early momentum from NJOY and believe our businesses are on track to deliver against full year plans. We also demonstrated our continued commitment to maximizing the return on our investments and delivering strong shareholder returns with the sale of a portion of our investment in ABI and the subsequent expansion of our share repurchase program in March. My remarks this morning will focus on the continued early momentum behind NJOYs commercialization, the state of the e-vapor category, and enforcement progress encouraging first quarter results from on! and our financial outlook.

I’ll then turn it over to Sal, who will provide further details on our financial results and additional information on the partial sale of our ABI investment. Let’s begin with our e-vapor business. After three full quarters of ownership, we remain excited about NJOY and its potential in the legal US e-vapor market. In the first quarter, we broadened NJOYs distribution to over 80,000 stores and we expect to expand to approximately 100,000 stores by year end. We also continued the rollout of NJOYs first retail trade program, which we believe will help NJOY achieve optimal visibility and product fixture space at retail. Today, more than 70% of contracted stores have chosen options that secure premium positioning in the e-vapor fixture for NJOY, and we expect the majority of fixture resets to be completed in the first half of this year.

To generate trial of NJOY, we expanded promotional offers at retail in the first quarter and saw promising results. NJOYs retail share of consumables grew in each of the past six months and was 4.3 share points in the quarter, up 0.6 share points sequentially, and we have seen early signs of longer term adoptions from smokers and vapors that have tried NJOY. Late last year, we tested a variety of promotional offers in a limited number of retail accounts. Diving into one retail account example, share grew by over nine percentage points versus the pre-promotional period. In the first quarter, we reduced promotions in the account and NJOY retained over 50% of the share gain during the trial period, settling five percentage points higher than the pre-promotion period.

We believe these results speak to NJOYs appeal once consumers try the product. We are also inspecting a variety of other metrics to better evaluate trial and adoption of NJOY in the early stages of its expansion. One such metric that we believe is an important indicator of trial in the e-vapor category is retail share of devices, as we believe it’s a measure of vapor and smoker trial and a potential leading indicator of longer term adoption. In the first quarter, NJOYs share of devices in the multi outlet and convenience channel was 11.5 share points, an increase of 2.4 share points sequentially and 6.4 share points since the third quarter of 2023, our first full quarter of ownership. Turning to shipments, NJOY consumables shipment volume was approximately 10.9 million units and NJOYs device shipment volume was approximately 1 million units.

While shipment volume was essentially flat sequentially, recall that 2023 fourth quarter NJOY shipment volume included building pipeline inventory at wholesale and retail to support the increased demand we anticipated in the first quarter. Moving forward, our plan aims to broaden the awareness of NJOY and grow brand affinity through NJOYs improved positioning at retail, a new equity campaign that emphasizes NJOYs unique attributes and exceptional vaping experience. A new adults only event marketing infrastructure, which NJOY expects to activate this summer and our adult tobacco consumer database, which allows us to communicate to millions of age verified US adult tobacco consumers through various marketing channels. We also continue to expect that NJOY will submit PMTA filings for flavored NJOY ACE products with age gated Bluetooth technology by the end of the second quarter.

NJOYs early success is encouraging in the context of broader trends in the e-vapor marketplace, where a lack of FDA authorized products and the continued proliferation of illicit disposal products threaten the harm reduction [ph] opportunity in the United States. As it relates to enforcement, we believe that a comprehensive approach is needed to address this issue, and we continue to actively engage with regulators, state and federal lawmakers, our trade partners, and other stakeholders to build awareness and drive marketplace enforcement. There is still significant work ahead that we saw some encouraging actions in the first quarter. In the first quarter alone, the FDA, in collaboration with the US Customs and Border Protection, issued over 450 e-vapor related import refusals, up from 348 during all of last year.

The agency also continued to levy civil monetary penalties and send warning letters to manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers of illicit products. While these actions represent signs of progress, we believe they are wholly inadequate. Illicit markets are a threat to public health, and we believe the FDA’s enforcement approach is not of the scale or scope needed to bring about fundamental change in the marketplace. As a result, we identified to the agency specific steps we believe they can take to build a more effective compliance and enforcement program to address the illicit market, including imposing direct liability on the large manufacturers, importers, and distributors of illicit products, focusing on import prevention and clearing up widespread confusion in the marketplace about the FDA’s enforcement priorities.

Earlier this month, we sent a letter to the FDA highlighting these recommendations and reinforcing our commitment to work collaboratively on solutions that can restore order in the e-vapor marketplace. We also continue to work with state legislatures that have passed or are considering legislation requiring manufacturers to certify that they are compliant with FDA requirements. As of April 19, eight states have passed such legislation and 12 states are considering it, and we’ve seen increased legal action against entities that are enabling the illicit market. As we’ve previously disclosed, we initiated litigation in the United States District Court in California relating to the sale of unlawful products. Due to some procedural challenges, we voluntarily dismissed this litigation earlier this year.

We subsequently filed a new lawsuit against five manufacturers, four brick and mortar retailers and three online retailers of illicit health bar e-vapor products in February in federal court in California, and earlier this month, the city of New York filed a lawsuit against 11 wholesalers for their part in the sale of illegal disposable e-vapor products. We continue to believe in the promise of a responsible e-vapor category, but a strong course direction is needed to protect the tobacco harm reduction opportunity for the millions of adult smokers in the US. We’ve learned from past experience that complex issues like this require the work of many stakeholders, and while we are starting to see some early signs of action, more impactful progress needs to be made.

Let’s now turn to the oral tobacco category. Oral nicotine pouches grew 13.8 share points year-over-year and now represent over 40% of the oral tobacco category. Oral nicotine pouches were the primary contributor of the estimated 9.5% increase in oral tobacco industry volume over the past six months. Helix grew on! [ph] reported shipment volume to approximately 33 million cans during the first quarter, an increase of 32%. on! continued its momentum at retail, growing its share of the oral tobacco category by 0.7 share points to 7.1%. Helix delivered these impressive results as on! retail price increased by 26%. This spring, Helix introduced a new trade program that secures premium positioning for on! in over 80% of contracted stores, creating broader visibility of the brand.

Helix is continuing its focus on strategically investing behind the brand as the category growth accelerates. Helix is also making final preparations for filing its PMTA for on! PLUS, which we expect to submit in the first half of this year. Upon FDA authorization, we believe it will contribute meaningfully to Helix’s growth. We continue to aggressively pursue efforts to create the conditions for tobacco harm reduction’s success in the US to benefit tobacco consumers, society and our shareholders. I am confident in Altria’s ability to lead the way in harm reduction with our exciting portfolio of smoke free products and our talented and dedicated employees. With our smoke free progress and the strength of our traditional tobacco businesses in mind, we reaffirm our guidance to deliver 2024 full year adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $5.05 to $5.17 representing a growth rate of 2% to 4.5% from a base of $4.95 in 2023.

I’ll now turn it over to Sal to provide more details on the business environment and our results.

Sal Mancuso: Thanks, Billy. First quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share declined by 2.5%. As we previously noted, we expect that 2024 adjusted diluted EPS growth will be weighted to the second half of the year resulting from two main factors. The first relates to the timing of the NJOY acquisition in 2023. Since we closed the transaction on June 1 of last year, we are lapping quarters in the first half of the year that do not include the impact of amortization or investments behind the brand. The second factor is the impact of two additional shipping days in the smokeable segment, each of which occur in the second half of the year. Turning now to our first quarter business results, the smokeable products segment delivered over $2.4 billion in adjusted operating companies income, with robust net price realization of 8.5%, and Marlboro maintained its longstanding leadership in the cigarette category.

Adjusted OCI margins were 60.2% for the quarter, down slightly from a year ago. Year-over-year margin comparisons were impacted by higher per unit settlement charges and some elevated manufacturing costs. Year-over-year MSA and manufacturing cost per pack increases were higher in the first quarter than we expect for the remainder of the year. These higher costs were partially offset by lower SG&A cost in the quarter. We also expect the segment to benefit from lower SG&A cost as the year progresses. Total smokeable products segment reported and adjusted cigarette volumes declined by 10% in the first quarter. When adjusted for trade inventory movement and other factors, we estimate that industry volumes declined by 9% over the same period. We believe that industry volume trends have been negatively impacted by the proliferation of illicit disposable e-vapor products and continued pressures on tobacco consumer discretionary income.

At retail, the discount segment grew 0.8 share points in the first quarter. We believe these results were driven in partnership by macroeconomic pressures on the adult smokers. We continue to see increased competitive activity in the discount segment, including multiple branded discount offerings priced at deep discount levels. Meanwhile, Marlboro continues to show its resilience, retaining its retail share of 42% in a challenging environment. Marlboro also grew its share of the highly profitable premium segment to 59.3%, an increase of 0.7 share points. We believe Marlboro’s strong consumer loyalty and position as the aspirational brand in the category is driving its continued outperformance in the premium segment. In cigars, reported cigar shipment volume decreased by 6.1% in the first quarter.

Middleton continued to contribute to smokeable products segment financial results, and Black & Mild remains the leader in the highly profitable machine made large cigar segment. Moving to the oral tobacco products segment. Adjusted OCI grew 4.6% in the first quarter and adjusted OCI margins expanded by 0.2 percentage points to 69.5%. Total segment reported shipment volume decreased 3.1% as growth in on! was more than offset by lower MST volumes. When adjusted for calendar differences and trade inventory movements, we estimate that first quarter oral tobacco product segment volumes declined by approximately 4%. Oral tobacco products segment retail share declined 7.1 percentage points as declines in our MST brands were partially offset by the growth of on! We remain encouraged by the performance of our oral tobacco products as on! continued to grow share and Copenhagen remain the leading moist, smokeless tobacco brand.

Moving to capital allocation. In March, we sold a portion of our investment in ABI and expanded our share repurchase program to $3.4 billion. In expanding our repurchase program, we implemented a $2.4 billion accelerated share repurchase program under which we received 46.5 million shares in March, representing 85% of the ASR program. These repurchases are reflected in our weighted average shares outstanding for the quarter. We expect to receive shares representing the remaining 15% of the ASR program by the end of the second quarter. After the completion of the ASR program, we anticipate having $1 billion remaining under the currently authorized share repurchase program, which we expect to complete by year end. Turning to ABI’s financial results, we recorded $165 million of adjusted equity earnings for the quarter, down 8.3%.

As a reminder, we use the equity method of accounting for our investment in ABI and report our share of ABI’s results using a one quarter lag. Accordingly, our first quarter adjusted equity earnings represent our share of ABI’s fourth quarter earnings. Following the ABI transaction, our ownership of ABI is approximately 8.1% with a tax basis of approximately $1.2 billion. We continue to view the ABI stake as a financial investment, and our goal remains to maximize long term value of the investment for our shareholders. Turning to other capital allocation activity, we paid approximately $1.7 billion in dividends and retired $1.1 billion of notes that came due in the first quarter, and as of March 31, our debt to EBITDA ratio was 2.1 times. With that, we’ll wrap up and Billy and I will be happy to take your questions.

While the calls are being compiled, I’ll remind you that today’s earnings release and our non-GAAP reconciliations are available on altria.com. We’ve also posted our usual quarterly metrics, which include pricing, inventory and other items. Let’s open the question and answer period. Operator, do we have any questions?

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Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take questions from the investment community first. Our first question will come from Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Pamela Kaufman: Hi, good morning.

Billy Gifford: Good morning, Pamela.

Pamela Kaufman: I wanted to ask about the modest raise to your full year guidance following the ABI share sale, despite your plans to repurchase an incremental 3% of your stock. What considerations went into that? And is it a reflection of weaker than expected underlying performance relative to your outlook at the beginning of the year?

Sal Mancuso: Good morning, Pamela. Thanks for the question. We were really happy to be able to revise our guidance and take up the bottom end of the guidance by a full percentage point. We took the top end of the guidance up about a half a percentage point. I would read into that the confidence in our core businesses, but also it provides us with flexibility as we go throughout the year to manage not only our overall business, but to make investments behind our innovative tobacco products. So we feel really good about being able to provide the guidance. It reflects the accretion of the ABI transaction.

Pamela Kaufman: Okay, thanks. And my second question is a bit more philosophical. Historically, your strategy has been to maximize operating profit by taking price in excess of cigarette volume declines. And given this is becoming increasingly difficult because of the magnitude of volume declines and the need to reinvest behind alternatives, do you think that this strategy is sustainable in the changing operating backdrop? And have you considered other approaches to maximizing profitability?

Billy Gifford: Yeah, we always look at our strategies, Pamela, but we feel like that is the right strategy. I would phrase it a little bit differently than you did. It’s to maximize profitability over the long term while making appropriate investments in Marlboro and the growth segment. So when you think about that, I think when you think about the pricing, and we’ve talked about the factors that go into pricing decisions, certainly we’ve highlighted for you that our consumer is under economic strain, both from the cumulative impact of inflation as well as debt loads and high interest rates. And so we’re going to continue to maximize profitability over the long term. We feel good about the price realization we had in the quarter.

It was 8.5%. I think it’s important to step back and think about what the consumer felt at retail. And so when you think about that, that was just shy of 6%. So there’s still competition out there, but our consumer is under pressure and we’re going to make appropriate investments and be, be there for them. I think if you look back through history, that’s proven to be a strong strategy.

Pamela Kaufman: Thank you. I’ll pass it on.

Operator: Our next question will come from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Bonnie Herzog: All right. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Maybe a bit of a follow up question to Pamela is just one thing I certainly saw in the quarter was your controllable costs and smokeable per pack were up quite a bit, I think up mid teens. So hoping you could touch on the drivers of that and how we should think about that moving forward. And then honestly, just ultimately your expectations for improved dollar profit growth in smokeable in the back half. I guess I’m trying to understand, you know, can you, can you guys hit the mid to high end of your EPS guidance this year, you know, if dollar profits don’t recover? Again, kind of a little bit of what Pamela was asking, but just trying to understand how much flexibility you have.

Sal Mancuso: Good morning, Bonnie. I’m going to unpack that question a little bit. Hopefully I touch on all aspects of it. If I don’t, please follow up. As we talked about in our opening remarks, I think first quarter, there’s a couple of items that I would point out. It’s really about comparisons to prior year that impact the first quarter at a higher level than we think will impact the rest of the year. A couple of adjustments, if you will, accounting adjustments, as you think about one is within the MSA cost per pack. We’ve seen adjustments in the past. There’s a lot of variables. It’s a complex calculation when you develop the accrual for MSA and in the past you’ve seen adjustments related to things like inflation. This quarter we did make an adjustment.

It was really specific to industry profits. Specifically, one of our major competitors had lower profits than anticipated. And then on the cost side, not to get too deep into the accounting, but we do account for inventory and the Lifo [ph] methodology. So when you revalue the inventory, it does impact the P&L, and it impacts the P&L in the first quarter at a higher level than it will in the remainder of the year. To your broader question, we feel very confident in our ability to continue to grow margins within the smokable product segment. And we’re really happy with the performance of that segment. The performance of Marlboro, where you saw stable share performance and growth in the premium segment, of the cigarette category.

Bonnie Herzog: Okay. And I guess that’s helpful. But I guess if I’m hearing you correctly, it’s really maybe more of a timing. And like the one off that you mentioned shows we think about just honestly the controllable cost. If those moderate moving forward and especially in the back half, that’s going to help to drive the dollar profit growth. Is that part of the confidence you have?

Sal Mancuso: Yeah, the year-over-year increase is higher in the first quarter. And then finally, let me also point out, the smokable product segment did benefit from lower SG&A costs that, and it’ll continue to benefit from that throughout the year. So again, we feel very good about the smokeable products segment going forward.

Bonnie Herzog: Well, that helps. And maybe my next question or final question is on pricing. You guys have taken two increases so far this year, and I’m talking about Cig [ph] pricing. So that seems to follow your typical quarterly cadence, which sounds reasonable given the unrelenting pressure on Cig volumes, but your peers don’t seem to be following in terms of frequency or strength. And, you know, I guess I’m asking because how concerned are you about the price gaps and, you know, how much they’ve widened? And I’m asking, you know, especially in light of the down trading pressures that we’re seeing, which seems to be continuing to accelerate. And as you guys called out, the continued proliferation of illicit e-cigs, you know, how should we think about that in your ability to kind of manage these price gaps, etcetera and down trading? Thank you.

Billy Gifford: Yeah, I appreciate the question, Bonnie. I’ll be careful not to talk about future pricing decisions, but I think when you step back and you look at how it’s performed over time, I think what you see is the benefit of the investments we made in data analytics, really from a standpoint of being able to bring revenue growth management where we started in traditional moist smokeless tobacco and brought it over to cigarettes, you see that Marlboro is steady overall share and growing share of premium. Yeah, you see a little bit of down trading, but I think if you look back through history, you see that occur when the consumer is under economic pressure. We feel good about the tools we have within Marlboro, and I think it shows in the strength of the performance of that brand.

From a standpoint of the pressures on volume, we try to provide for you the decomposition, and you see almost secular decline in price elasticity holding steady. It’s really the macroeconomic and to your point, the proliferation of the illicit e-vapor. And so we really need to see from an overall standpoint, a regulatory environment that is effective and is both looking at authorizing smoke free products that the consumer is demanding and enforcing against illicit e-vapor products.

Bonnie Herzog: Okay, thank you.

Billy Gifford: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Faham Baig with UBS. Please go ahead.

Faham Baig: Hi, guys. A couple of questions from me, both on the smokeables division. I just want to understand if the industry volume decline remains at minus 9% for the rest of the year, whether that still allows you to hit the bottom end of your EPs outlook. In other words, you still have some room to reduce SG&A costs further and raise pricing higher. The second question is whether you can share your estimate of the growth of the vapor category in Q1 and what impact this might have had on cigarette volumes in Q1, please.

Billy Gifford: Yes, I appreciate your question. I think from a standpoint of guidance, look, we run a range of scenarios of what could be the outcomes as we progress through the year. We reaffirm that guidance and feel very good about the guidance that we have out in the marketplace. I think when you think about the estimated e-vapor, we believe that the overall e-vapor category continued to grow with the vast majority of that coming from illicit disposable e-vapor products. While we started filling some of our information gaps. The nature of it being illicit is it goes around the normal distribution chain. I think the best thing I can point you to, and we included this in our quarterly metrics, you saw the growth in the consumers engaged on the 12 month movement.

Just shy of 18 million consumers now engaged with a step up of both those that are fully converted and those that are still using cigarettes in e-vapor. And then going to the decomposition range estimate for the impact of e-vapor on the cigarette category is 1.5 to 2.5. And again, we’re looking to fill those information gaps. But the nature of it being illicit, we feel good about that range. I know it’s a bit of a wide range, but as we continue to fill those information gaps and try to get a read on the illicit marketplace will provide those updates as appropriate.

Faham Baig: Okay, thanks for that.

Billy Gifford: Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Matt Smith with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Matt Smith: Hi, good morning.

Billy Gifford: Good morning, Matt.

Matt Smith: It was a reacceleration in price realization in the combustible business in the quarter with pricing per pack up 8.5%. That’s above the 5.5% in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about the factors behind the stronger price realization? And are you now lapping some stepped up investments in the Marlboro brand in response to the pressure on the – in response to the economic pressure on the consumer?

Billy Gifford: Yeah, I think from a standpoint, I would encourage you to look at price realization over the longer term. I think it’s exactly what you referred to. We highlighted as we progressed through 2023, there were some investments we wanted to make, both on the menthol segment of Marlboro, as well as some of the discount pressure we’re seeing in pockets. I think it’s important to remember that price gap that we show on a national basis. We’re managing that price gap down at the store level, so you can go from one side of a city to the other and see different price gaps in stores. And so being able to mine that data, I think you see it with the strength of Marlboro. And to your point, the strong price realization we experienced in the quarter.

Matt Smith: Thank you. And my second question, R&D spending is shifting to the all other segments. The impact from that shift did not seem meaningful in the first quarter, given the unique higher costs in smokable. Can you talk about the phasing of that R&D shift through 2024? Should we think of the smokeable profitability growth weighted to the second half in addition to the overall company EPS growth weighted to the second half?

Sal Mancuso: Matt, we don’t, as you know, we don’t guide at the segment level, but you are correct in that you are seeing a shift in R&D spending towards the innovative products. And that’s part of the SG&A benefit I talked about within the smokeable segment earlier with Bonnie. The smokeable segment will continue to benefit from those lower SG&A costs as the year progresses.