Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) reports Q3 results on Oct. 30, and the stock ranks ninth on our list of the 10 stocks in Trump’s latest stock portfolio. Click to see the other nine.
Billionaires Added Chevron in Q2
Trump was not the only famous buyer. Ken Griffin’s Citadel Investment Group raised its Chevron stake by 146% in the second quarter to 3.5 million shares, worth $579.5 million at the end of June, or 0.07% of its portfolio. Cliff Asness’s AQR Capital Management added 269% to 5.5 million shares worth $912.1 million, or 0.32% of its portfolio. Israel Englander’s Millennium Management raised its stake by 77% to 3.1 million shares worth $506.6 million, or 0.18% of its portfolio. D. E. Shaw added 151% to 1.7 million shares worth $287.8 million, and Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates lifted its position by 5,375% to 154,753 shares worth $25.7 million.
Chevron ranks fifth in our list of the 5 best stocks to buy now according to Warren Buffett. Click to see the other four. Not everyone bought. Ken Fisher’s Fisher Asset Management cut its stake by 24% to 16.7 million shares.
Bull Case
Bulls like Chevron because it keeps adding low-cost barrels. The Hess deal gave it a 30% stake in Guyana’s Stabroek Block, one of the most profitable offshore oil projects in the world. Production also keeps growing in the Permian Basin and at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan. The Permian assets run on short-cycle shale wells, which suit a market where prices swing. Higher prices now send extra cash to shareholders, and the stock yields 3.13%. Analysts have also raised their estimates, and Chevron beat earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Chevron paid down a record amount of debt last quarter while oil earnings ran high. Click to see how long the earnings peak can last.
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Bear Case
Chevron’s earnings follow the oil price, and high oil prices do not last forever. The recent spike came from the blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Prices can fall fast if tensions ease, and the G7 has already released 100 million barrels of oil and diesel to cap them.
The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and ease to around $84 in 2027. It also expects global oil supply to grow from about 101 million to about 109.5 million barrels a day next year, which adds pressure on prices.
Wall Street already expects the peak to fade, with analysts forecasting earnings per share to fall 11.5% in 2027 and revenue to drop 6%. Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund said Chevron’s share price has closely tracked crude oil prices throughout 2026. Check the full letter here. Lower oil would cut free cash flow, and with it the buybacks and dividend growth that investors want. The stock also trades above its prior record of about $218, which leaves less cushion if oil drops.
Valuation
Chevron trades at 13.02 times forward earnings, a 6% premium to the energy sector median of 12.28 and 6% below its own five-year average of 13.84. On a GAAP basis, the forward P/E is 13.22 against a sector median of 12.89. Growth explains the small premium. Analysts expect earnings per share to rise about 138% in 2026 as oil prices jump, and revenue to rise about 27%. The PEG ratio of 0.70 sits 33% below the sector median of 1.04, which looks cheap.
The catch is that this P/E rests on peak oil earnings, and next year’s estimates are lower. On the average 2027 estimate, the P/E would be about 14.7. The 2027 range is wide, and the low estimate sits about 32% below the average. At that low estimate, the P/E would be above 21. So the price assumes oil stays high for a while. If oil falls, the stock is less cheap than 13 times earnings suggests, and the PEG relies on growth estimates that turn negative next year.
Is Chevron Worth Buying Now?
Trump and the big funds bought Chevron for good reasons. It is a low-cost producer with growing barrels, a 3.13% yield and a strong balance sheet. Jim Cramer has said Chevron benefits as the Iran conflict drags on. Click to read why. The risk is the timing. The stock sits above its prior record while earnings are near a peak, and analysts already expect them to fall in 2027. Long-term income investors can own Chevron Corporation, and anyone who wants to buy before the Oct 30 report should consider building a position in steps, since the stock depends on the price of oil.
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