Trump Added Netflix to His Portfolio. Should You Buy Before Earnings?

Published October 19, 2026 at 9:36 am EDT

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports its Q3 Oct 20, and President Donald Trump bought the stock four times in August, according to his latest disclosure filed on Oct 8. Netflix ranks sixth on our list of the top 10 stocks in Trump’s latest stock portfolio.

Why Netflix Stock Is Down About 22% This Year

Slowing growth is the main reason. Netflix guided third quarter revenue growth to 11.7%, down from 13.4% in the second quarter and 16.2% in the first. American Century Investments’ Focused Dynamic Growth Fund said the weak outlook pressured the shares, according to its investor letter. Viewing hours rose only 2% in the first half of the year. Netflix’s share of US TV screentime fell to a multi-year low of 7.8% in July, as YouTube took more of people’s time, according to Nielsen.

The company also lost creative talent. The Duffer Brothers, who created “Stranger Things,” moved to Paramount. Producer Shawn Levy moved to Disney, and David Fincher decided not to renew his deal. These exits came after Netflix’s failed attempt to buy Warner Bros. Discovery, and the stock has slid since April. Billionaire funds were already selling the stock before this slide, and you can read why they were heading for the exit here.

What Netflix Is Doing to Bounce Back

Netflix cut staff, shook up its leadership and hired former Disney executive Peter Rice as chief content officer. It is also leaning on advertising and live sports. Management expects advertising revenue to double in 2026. The live slate includes NFL games on Thanksgiving Eve and Christmas Day, and the Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua fight on Dec 11. Management says six of its top 10 new member sign-up days over the past five years came from live events. Netflix raised US prices in March and said subscriber retention held up.

Photo by Souvik Banerjee on Unsplash

Bull Case

Bulls say the pullback gives investors a cheaper way into a business that still has several ways to earn more from each member. Advertising is early, live sports bring in new subscribers and advertisers, and price increases have not driven people away. Jefferies rates the stock a Buy, with about 20% upside to its price target. The firm sees a long runway for monetization, margin expansion and share buybacks, and expects revenue growth of about 11% a year through 2029, Jefferies said in a note. Wall Street’s consensus rating is also Buy.

Bear Case

Bears think Netflix is maturing. Viewers are spending less time in the app, YouTube keeps taking share, and top creators are leaving, which hurts the shows that keep members subscribed. Rivals are also active. Trump sold Disney in July, and billionaires were selling the stock alongside him, as this look at the two stocks they dumped shows. Advertising depends on engagement, and ad budgets shrink when the economy weakens. Analysts expect earnings per share growth to slow sharply, from about 42% in 2026 to 5.9% in 2027.

Valuation

Netflix trades at 19.65 times forward earnings, 43% below its five-year average of 34.41. It still trades at a 54% premium to the sector median of 12.75. Quant scoring gives the stock a Hold rating and a D- valuation grade against its sector. Fund managers have noticed the weakness too, and Parnassus Investments’ Growth Equity Fund looked at what dragged Netflix in the second quarter in its investor letter.

Should You Buy Before Earnings?

Buying before earnings is a bet on one report, and nobody can say how the stock will react. Analysts expect earnings per share to rise about 40% from a year ago and revenue growth near 12%, in line with Netflix’s own guidance. Investors will watch engagement trends, advertising revenue and the fourth quarter outlook. Trump’s buys also give little to go on. He bought in August, the filing is a snapshot, and it does not say whether he plans to hold through the report.

Investors who believe in the advertising and live sports story can start a position now and add after results. Investors who want less risk can wait for the report, because the thesis for Netflix, Inc. plays out over years, not over one quarter.

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About the Author

Fahad Saleem

Fahad has over 12 years of experience in financial editing, writing, and content strategy. He has previously worked as an editor at S&P Global Market Intelligence and Benzinga. He currently works as a US Top News… Fahad has over 12 years of experience in financial editing, writing, and content strategy. He has previously worked as an editor at S&P Global Market Intelligence and Benzinga. He currently works as a US Top News Editor at MT Newswires. His journey with Insider Monkey began in 2014 as a financial writer. He returned to the company in 2021 as an editor and took on responsibility for recruiting and training new writers. He currently focuses on in-depth stock analysis and deep-dive investment research for Insider Monkey. Fahad enjoys long walks in nature and making videos reviewing books and discussing podcasts. Read moreRead less

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