Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) shares ultimately fell 2.2% on September 28, despite Evercore publishing one of its most bullish notes yet on the company’s data center business. The disconnect reflects a key challenge. Capital spending is expected to rise sharply in the short term, creating a gap between spending and revenue that Evercore believes could position the business for a stronger 2027.
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More GPU Capacity Than Wall Street Expects
Elon Musk’s disclosure that Colossus 1 and 2 have 780,000 GPUs online set the backdrop for Evercore’s latest note. The firm expects two to three 220,000-GPU GB300 tranches by year-end. That would bring total capacity to roughly 2.3 to 2.7 gigawatts, above Wall Street’s 2.1 gigawatts estimate. With a $40-per-watt build cost and a 50/50 internal/external split, Evercore’s base case calls for 29 billion of incremental annualized revenue from unallocated second-half 2026 capacity plus $54 billion from existing deals. That puts 2027 AI Solutions & Infrastructure revenue at $83 billion versus a $47 billion consensus. Evercore maintains an Outperform rating and a $230 price target on the stock.
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Buy the Timing Mismatch
SpaceX’s opportunity comes with a short-term spending burden. Evercore expects the company’s second-half 2026 AI capex to reach nearly $53 billion, roughly 70% above consensus, which could explain why the shares dipped instead of rallying after the disclosure. However, the heavy upfront investment could give SpaceX a capacity advantage. Evercore says the company is bringing terrestrial compute online faster than peers and should finish 2026 well above Wall Street estimates, even before factoring in management’s 5 to 10 gigawatts year-end 2027 ambition. Evercore was clear about its view:
For investors with duration into 2027 who remain constructive on AI compute demand, we would be buying the shares here.
SpaceX Has the Cash to Wait for Its AI Payoff
SpaceX’s valuation already prices in a lot, from Starlink’s growth to its lead in launches, and the AI buildout now adds to that. The forward GAAP P/E isn’t meaningful, and the company is too new to the market for a multi-year comparison. At about 45.5x forward sales, though, it trades at a steep multiple, especially for a company worth over $2 trillion. The EPS outlook suggests the payoff will take time. Consensus estimates currently point to a sharp earnings ramp after 2026, with EPS rising from about $1.63 in 2027 to $4.13 in 2028 and $6.64 in 2029.. That’s a year later than Evercore’s 2027 revenue view, since heavy spending is likely to weigh on profits first. The balance sheet can handle the wait. SpaceX held about $100 billion in cash and marketable securities against roughly $39.5 billion in debt and finance leases as of June 30. That gives it substantial liquidity, although Evercore’s estimated $53 billion second-half AI capex would consume a significant portion of that cushion.
SpaceX’s institutional base remains broad, with 119 hedge funds holding the stock. Meanwhile, short interest stood at just 2.58% of float as of September 15, 2026.
The combination suggests investors are not positioning against Evercore’s capacity estimates. Instead, the market appears to be underwriting the same 2027 payoff outlined in the note, with little positioning for the buildout to disappoint.
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