On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) is drawing attention from Wall Street. On September 23, UBS reiterated its Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $73. The research firm said the company’s focus on innovation, performance, athletes, sports, and direct-to-consumer sales could support industry-leading sales growth and earnings surprises. UBS expects On Holding AG to deliver a 29% 5-year compound annual growth rate in earnings per share, which could position the company among the fastest-growing athletic wear brands globally.
Citi also reiterated its Buy rating on On Holding AG with a $55 price target. The firm pointed to On Holding’s fiscal 2029 target of high-teens compound annual sales growth, which is above the market’s mid-teens growth expectations. Citi also highlighted the company’s planned expansion into new categories, including golf and football.
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On September 22, On Holding AG held its 2026 Investor Day at On Labs in Zurich, where it outlined its growth plans through 2029. The company expects its core Run, Sneaker, and Apparel businesses to remain key growth drivers. It expects further growth opportunities through its entry into football and golf.
The company said it will be targeting a high-teens constant-currency net sales CAGR through 2029 while aiming to maintain a gross profit margin of at least 65%. On Holding AG also expects to reach an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 22% by 2029. The company is targeting a 3-year adjusted EBITDA CAGR of more than 20%
The company also said it remains on track to significantly surpass the financial targets it set at its 2023 Investor Day and reiterated its full-year 2026 outlook. In addition, On Holding AG’s board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $1 billion through December 2029. The company aims to return cash to shareholders while also continuing to invest in its footwear and apparel growth strategy.
Near-Term Pressures And Competitive Risks
The outlook is not without risks. Citi noted that near-term pressures in the athletic market have reduced wholesale sell-in for fiscal 2026. However, the research firm sees the pressure as temporary.
On Holding AG also faces risks from its premium pricing strategy and significant marketing spending. Competition from established athletic brands could make it difficult for the company to gain more market share.
The company’s premium positioning also makes it dependent on consumers continuing to spend on higher-priced performance and lifestyle sportswear. If demand for premium products weakens, maintaining growth could become more challenging for the company. On Holding AG’s expansion into football and golf could also take longer to generate meaningful sales, especially because of competition from established brands operating in these categories.
Hedge Fund Interest
However, hedge fund interest in the stock increased during the second quarter. According to Insider Monkey‘s database, 54 hedge funds held On Holding AG at the end of the second quarter, up from 52 in the first quarter.
Analysts are also bullish on the stock. Of the 30 analysts covering On Holding AG, 80% rate the stock a Buy. The median 12-month price target stands at $41.67, representing a 36.79% potential upside from the stock’s current price as of September 24.
However, as of September 15, short interest stood at 9.16% of On Holding AG’s float, showing that a portion of investors continues to position for downside.
The bearish case remains tied to whether On Holding AG can deliver on these ambitious targets as competition, premium pricing risks, and expansion into new sports create execution challenges. Despite these risks, it may be argued that the company’s ambitious targets signal confidence in the strength of its premium brand and its ability to maintain pricing power against strong competition.
