Moderna (MRNA) Soars 175% in Q3: Can The Stock Keep Running?

Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) ranked as the second top-performing stock in the US market in the third quarter of the year, with the surge primarily driven by rosy growth prospects from its combined therapy candidate for treating the most common type of skin cancer.

The vaccine maker—which is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index on Friday, October 9—saw its share prices jump by 174.98 percent in three months ending September, following news that its Intismeran Autogene and Merck’s Keytruda, successfully achieved their primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and secondary target of distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) during a late-stage clinical trial combining their therapies in a late-stage clinical trial.

For illustration purposes only. Photo by Ian Hutchinson on Unsplash

It marked the first positive readout from a phase 3 clinical trial combining an mRNA-based cancer treatment and individualized neoantigen therapy (INT), and by far the first late-stage phase to demonstrate a clinically meaningful improvement over Keytruda alone.

Huge Addressable Market

The results ultimately pointed to revenue growth prospects for both firms in the next few years, backed by the combined therapy’s huge addressable market.

Melanoma—which is responsible for a large majority of skin cancer deaths—is expected to increase by 112,000 cases by the end of the year, of which 8,500 deaths are estimated to be registered.

In 2022 alone, some 330,000 cases were diagnosed globally, making it one of the most common types of cancer diagnosed.

READ ALSO: Jim Cramer Explains Why Heavily Shorted Moderna (MRNA) Has Room to Run

FDA OKs Updated COVID-19 Vaccines

Also in August, Moderna Inc. received the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of its biologics license application for the 2026 to 2027 formulas of Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE vaccines to help prevent COVID-19.

The new formula for Spikevax is now approved for individuals aged 6 months to 64 with at least one underlying condition, and for all adults aged 65 years and older.

On the other hand, mNEXSPIKE—its latest COVID-19 vaccine—has been approved for individuals 12 to 64 with at least one underlying condition that puts them at high risk for severe outcomes from COVID-19, and all adults 65 years of age and older.

COVID-19 was responsible for claiming the lives of 7.1 million individuals worldwide during the pandemic.

What’s Next?

With Moderna Inc. set to join the Nasdaq-100 index on Friday, markets are anticipating a further surge in the stock’s price this week, as institutional investors and index funds continue to rebalance their portfolios ahead of the shift to accurately mirror the index’s updated composition.

The vaccine maker is set to replace Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., which is set to completely merge with Paramount Skydance Corp. on Tuesday, October 6.

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