Mentioning how the FDA advisory panel backed its Galleri multi-cancer early detection test, a caller asked for Jim Cramer’s opinion on GRAIL, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRAL) during the lightning round of the September 30 episode of Mad Money. He replied:
You know, I’ve been waiting for that. I’ve been waiting for that approval. And I said, “If it happens, this thing is going to spike.” Do you know I don’t think it’s done yet? I think it’s like Moderna when it was like at $120. I think this thing can go higher. Believe it or not, it’s that important. Great call by you.
Cramer’s comparison points to the potential market impact of a major healthcare catalyst, but the companies operate in different parts of the industry. GRAIL is commercializing a blood-based cancer screening test, while Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) develops mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics across infectious diseases, oncology, and other areas.
Moderna has surged on fresh catalysts, but can its momentum last? See what’s driving the stock higher here.
GRAIL Has a Regulatory Catalyst While Moderna Advances Its Pipeline
The FDA advisory committee voted 7-2, with one abstention, that Galleri’s benefits outweighed its risks, while voting 6-4 on effectiveness and unanimously in favor of safety. The recommendation is not binding on the FDA, and final approval had not been granted as of October 2, with Reuters reporting that a decision is expected in the coming months. GRAIL, Inc. generated $44.7 million of revenue in the second quarter, up 26% year over year, while Galleri revenue rose 24% to $42.6 million and test volume increased 35% to more than 61,000. The company reported a $110.2 million net loss and $90.3 million adjusted EBITDA loss, with $861.6 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term marketable securities at June 30. GRAIL CEO Josh Ofman said after the advisory vote that the company remained committed to working with the FDA as it completes its review. GRAIL was covered in our article, Jeff Bezos Stock Portfolio: Top 10 Stock Picks.
Moderna, Inc. generated $145 million of revenue in the second quarter, compared with $142 million a year earlier, and posted a $782 million net loss. It ended June with $6.9 billion in cash, cash equivalents and investments. Its Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene with Merck’s Keytruda also met its recurrence-free-survival and distant-metastasis-free-survival endpoints in resected melanoma, adding an important oncology development to the comparison. You can find out more about the trial and the impact it had on MRNA’s stock price here.
Both Stocks Trade at Large Premiums to Healthcare Sales Multiples
Because both companies are currently loss-making, price-to-sales provides a more useful valuation comparison than P/E. Yahoo Finance’s valuation data as of September 23 puts GRAIL at 26.38x trailing sales and Moderna, Inc. at 32.43x trailing sales. Moderna’s valuation also stands out against larger profitable biotechnology companies. For context, January 2026 U.S. industry data from NYU Stern’s Aswath Damodaran showed average price-to-sales multiples of 7.31x for biotechnology companies and 5.63x for pharmaceutical companies. The comparison is not a direct peer valuation, especially because GRAIL, Inc. is a diagnostics company, but it shows the premium embedded in both stocks relative to broad healthcare industry benchmarks.
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Bear Case Hinges on Adoption and Future Pipeline Revenue
For GRAIL, Inc., FDA approval would remove a major regulatory hurdle but would not by itself guarantee widespread use or reimbursement. Reuters reported that Galleri currently costs about $700 out of pocket and generally is not covered by Medicare or private insurers. The NHS-Galleri trial also did not show a statistically significant reduction in its combined Stage III and IV cancer endpoint, which leaves an important question over whether earlier detection translates into lower cancer mortality. That matters because GRAIL’s valuation requires revenue to scale substantially from its current base. The company remains loss-making, so broader physician adoption, recurring testing volume, and eventual reimbursement would all need to develop quickly enough to support the premium investors are placing on future sales. The regulatory catalyst does not cancel the commercial and clinical-evidence risks surrounding the business.
For Moderna, Inc., the issue is how much future oncology revenue is already reflected in the valuation. On September 30, Citi analyst Geoff Meacham said Moderna’s roughly $80 billion market capitalization was approaching Regeneron’s despite materially lower expected revenue and earnings. Meacham also noted that the stock price assumes successful expansion across multiple tumor types, while the positive melanoma results alone do not establish that broader outcome.
Hedge Fund Positioning and Short Interest
As per Insider Monkey’s data, tracking more than 1,000 hedge funds, 29 hedge funds held stakes in GRAIL in Q2, down from 33 in Q1. Moderna had 49 holders, down from 52. Additionally, as for short interest, GRAIL’s was approximately 19.5% to 21.1% of the float while Moderna’s was roughly 9% to 10% of its float. GRAIL, Inc.’s regulatory progress gives the stock an important catalyst, but the financial case still depends on converting that progress into sustained testing demand and reimbursement. Meanwhile, Moderna, Inc. has a larger commercial base, but its valuation is increasingly tied to the scale and timing of future pipeline revenue, especially in oncology.
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