IonQ, Inc. (NYSE:IONQ) jumped roughly 12% in premarket trading on September 23 after testing the industry’s first real-time quantum error decoder, then extended gains on reveals that its Superion quantum processor would be integrated into NVIDIA’s Accelerated Quantum Research Center with Rigetti Computing, Inc. (NASDAQ:RGTI) trading up in sympathy on the same announcement, as the two stocks typically move together on sector-validating news. That said, a shared rally obscures a valuation gap between the two that’s far wider than most sector-wide coverage lets on.
Curious to see how far Wall Street thinks the rally will go? BofA recently put a $60 price target on IonQ, here’s the bull case in full.
The Operating Picture
IonQ’s second-quarter revenue came in at $80 million, up 287% year-over-year, and management boosted its 2026 projection to $280-290 million, with combined revenue (after closing the SkyWater foundry purchase) potentially reaching $460 million for the year. The company had roughly $2 billion in pro-forma cash, cash equivalents and investments following the SkyWater acquisition, dwarfing Rigetti’s approximately $540 million, giving IonQ significantly more runway to fund years of pre-commercial R&D without fear of dilution.
The Tech Comparison
On the tech front, IonQ’s trapped-ion design appears to have an accuracy advantage in recent comparisons, with IonQ reporting strong two-qubit gate-fidelity results, although direct comparisons with Rigetti are not straightforward. However, Rigetti’s architecture offers an advantage in terms of speed. The distinction is significant because quantum computing is not a simple race in which one company is “ahead” on every metric: accuracy, gate speed, scalability, connectivity, and error correction are all important. IonQ’s advantage is thus best regarded as a technical and financial one, rather than proof that it has already won the architecture race. Rigetti remains open to the potential that advancements in speed, production, or error correction could close the gap.
What Each Dollar of Revenue Costs
The valuation gap gets flattened when these two stocks are discussed together. IonQ’s market capitalization is currently around $17.48 billion, compared to combined 2026 revenue guidance of $450 million to $460 million following the SkyWater acquisition, putting its forward price-to-sales multiple in the 39x range. This is already a notable multiple, but it is built on a path to nearly triple-digit revenue growth and a roughly $2 billion of pro-forma cash, cash equivalents and investments that reduces near-term funding risk.
Meanwhile, Rigetti, with a market capitalization that has fluctuated between $5 billion to $9 billion over the last year, trades at an unusual trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 391.65x, having previously reached nearly 1,000x during substantial trading spikes.
While trailing multiples for both businesses remain elevated due to small historical sales bases, the valuation gap remains substantial. Simply put, the market is charging investors much more per dollar of current revenue for Rigetti than for IonQ, despite IonQ having a far stronger balance sheet and a larger revenue base.
That disparity becomes significant because it signals potential downside risk if sentiment cools. A stock trading at 39x forward sales has priced in high growth, while a stock trading at several hundred times trailing sales has priced in near-perfect execution over a much longer time horizon, with far less revenue currently on the books to anchor that multiple if the growth narrative stalls even briefly.
A Shared Warning Sign
Insider selling adds another cautious signal to the group. Since September 2024, insiders at IonQ, Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantum Computing Inc. have collectively sold around $895.1 million more stock than they bought. On September 11, IonQ CEO Niccolo de Masi sold 16,121 shares for around $598,000, though the filing said that the transaction was non-discretionary and was used to meet tax obligations related to vested restricted stock units.
Hedge Fund Positioning
Hedge fund positioning has grown for both companies, although Rigetti Computing, Inc. has seen a greater gain. The number of hedge funds owning IonQ, Inc. jumped from 39 in the first quarter to 42 in the second, while Rigetti’s ownership increased from 29 to 34 funds. That suggests that institutional investors are increasing exposure to the quantum theme rather than focusing solely on the better-capitalized leader. The short-interest numbers reflect a far wider contrast over Rigetti: short interest is 10.15% of IonQ’s shares versus 19.07% for Rigetti.
Insider Monkey’s Verdict
Neither stock is a value investment, since both remain speculative bets on a technology that is still years away from widespread commercial application. However, the valuation math argues for treating them very differently within that assumption. IonQ’s multiple, while extreme by any conventional measure, is supported by a larger revenue base, faster reported growth, and a cash position that provides years of runway without dilution risk. Rigetti’s multiple requires investors to pay several times more per dollar of current sales for a company with a fraction of the cash cushion, implying that any slowdown in its growth rate or the need to raise capital would cause the stock to fall from a far less defensible valuation baseline. Investors drawn to the sector by names like these should treat the price-to-sales gap, not just the shared NVIDIA headline, as the more important number, and should keep an eye on upcoming quarters to see if Rigetti’s own revenue growth can actually close that multiple gap, or if the current premium is simply compensation that the market hasn’t yet demanded fully.
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