Ford (NYSE:F) has spent the past year cutting loose the costliest pieces of its electric-vehicle bet, and the payoff is already showing up in its gas, hybrid, and commercial businesses. The stock, though, still trades like the recovery might be a mirage. According to Bloomberg, a selloff in recent weeks has tested Wall Street’s faith that Ford’s earnings can keep climbing.
Ford Blue sells gas and hybrid vehicles like the F-150, Bronco, and Maverick. Ford Pro sells work trucks, vans, and fleet software to businesses, while Ford Credit finances the purchases. Model e, the EV unit, still loses money. Yet, despite trading at a cheap forward earnings multiple, the legacy automaker fails to secure a spot among the 10 Best Undervalued Stocks to Buy in October.
So is the market right to stay skeptical, or is it pricing Ford for a past the company has already walked away from? The answer depends less on EVs than on whether the truck machine can keep growing once this year’s tailwinds fade.
Fleets Are the Real Franchise
Ford’s edge is scale in places rivals find hard to crack. It held a 41% share of the Class 1-7 commercial truck and van segment, based on registration data. Super Duty production hit 110,275 trucks in the third quarter, up 4.4% and its best quarter in 19 years.
That fleet base is getting stickier. Paid software subscriptions grew 50% to 1.6 million, with more than 900,000 of them Ford Pro Intelligence accounts. Once a plumbing company runs its routes, maintenance, and charging through Ford’s software, switching brands means retraining an entire operation, a lock-in that matters in a fight with rivals chasing the same fleet buyers; see the 10 Most Promising EV Stocks to Buy According to Analysts for analyses on these rivals.
The Overhang Is Gone
Ford’s second-quarter report showed what the business looks like with the EV drag shrinking. Adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes, excluding one-time items) rose 17% to $2.5 billion. Ford Blue’s EBIT jumped 72% to $1.1 billion, lifting its margin to 4.4% from 2.6%, and adjusted EPS climbed to $0.42 from $0.37.
On a GAAP basis, Ford posted a $1.3 billion net loss. That came mostly from a $3.6 billion special charge tied to exiting its BlueOval SK battery joint venture and earlier EV program cancellations, and over $3 billion of it was non-cash. Management raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10 billion to $11 billion, up from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, and lifted adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6 billion to $7 billion. Third-quarter sales fell 6.6% to 509,764 vehicles, which Ford tied to the planned phase-out of the Escape and Corsair. Maverick Hybrid sales jumped 59.6% to a record 27,793 pickups, and Bronco set a third-quarter record, a hybrid-and-trucks formula that reinforces Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) Battle for Title of Most American-Made Automaker as both domestic giants lean heavily into high-margin domestic truck assembly over pure EVs.
Isn’t This Just a Temporary Bounce?
Model e still lost $919 million in the second quarter on just $1.0 billion of revenue. Ford Pro’s EBIT fell $0.6 billion, to $1.7 billion, as it worked through temporary aluminum supply constraints linked to supplier Novelis. Ford expects about $1.0 billion of Novelis-related tailwind this year, mostly in the second half.
That’s the catch. While high-profile backing keeps Ford listed among the 10 Best Battery Stocks to Buy According to Billionaires, part of 2026’s overall improvement is recovery, not growth, and recovery doesn’t repeat. Analysts expect EPS growth of just 3.47% in 2027. A $1 billion warranty and material cost-cutting push could help close that gap, but it’s an aim rather than a result so far.
A Discount With a Reason
At 6.44 times forward earnings, as of October 12, investors pay about $6.44 for every $1 of expected profit. That’s below Ford’s own 5-year average of 7.78 and well under the sector’s 14.80. Some of that discount is earned. Low-single-digit growth, a money-losing EV unit, and a business tied to the economic cycle don’t deserve a market multiple. But Ford is now trading below its own history just as its books look cleaner, guidance is higher, and cash flow is improving. If you think the 2026 gains are mostly one-offs, 6.44 times looks about right. If even part of the cost work and fleet growth sticks, the gap to its 5-year average starts to look too wide. That sharp discount highlights the core debate as Tesla (TSLA), Ford (F), and GM (GM) Face a Weaker EV Market: Who Can Protect Profits? Hedge fund interest held steady, with 50 funds owning the stock in the most recent quarter, unchanged from the prior one. Short interest sits at 3.85% of the float, a relatively limited level of bearish positioning.
Cheap, With Conditions
The evidence points to a stock still priced for the Ford of a few years ago. The EV overhang is lighter, guidance is higher, and the fleet business keeps deepening its hold on customers. For patient value investors comfortable with auto-cycle swings, the setup looks more interesting than the multiple suggests. A Ford Pro margin rebound as aluminum supply normalizes would make the discount harder to justify. A flat 2027 outlook paired with stubborn Model e losses would suggest the market had it right.
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