On September 16, 2026, Reuters published an investigation showing that Trump administration policies, chiefly the elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, have derailed a wave of American EV and battery manufacturing investment. Roughly 87% of announced EV-related investments concentrated in states Trump won in 2024. General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)’s Ultium Cells battery joint venture in Lordstown, Ohio, idled production and laid off about 480 workers. Meanwhile, Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) scaled back its Glendale, Kentucky battery plant workforce to less than half its original planned size.
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Bull Case
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) could capture more U.S. EV market share as legacy automakers reduce their electric-vehicle investments. Reuters identified Tesla as the only American automaker among the world’s 10 largest EV manufacturers. Ford and GM have canceled programs, reduced battery production, and redirected capital toward other powertrains. This retreat reduces the number of domestic competitors pursuing EV scale and gives Tesla a stronger position among the consumers who are choosing fully electric vehicles.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) is repurposing underused EV investments rather than abandoning battery production entirely. Ford plans to hire 2,100 workers at its Glendale, Kentucky, complex to produce energy-storage batteries beginning in late 2027 and will manufacture its new Fathom electric pickup in Louisville. Ford Energy also signed a five-year agreement that allows EDF to purchase up to 20 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity. It gives the firm a commercial opportunity to recover value from facilities originally built for EV batteries.
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) has retained enough EV products and battery capacity to benefit if demand recovers. GM still offers roughly a dozen electric models in the United States, the industry’s broadest lineup. The firm says it is advancing its EV strategy. Its Ultium joint venture restarted battery-cell production in Lordstown in August and recalled approximately 700 workers. GM is also developing lower-cost lithium-manganese-rich batteries while redirecting planned lithium-iron-phosphate production toward energy storage. This gives it multiple ways to use its battery investments.
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Bear Case
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) faces less domestic competition but must compete for customers in a shrinking U.S. EV market. Tesla’s U.S. sales fell nearly 23% year over year to 39,800 vehicles in November 2025 after the federal tax credit expired, even after the company introduced cheaper Model 3 and Model Y versions. Unlike Ford and GM, Tesla cannot redirect vehicle buyers toward gasoline or hybrid models. Slower adoption and intensifying competition from Chinese manufacturers could pressure Tesla’s volumes, pricing, as well as automotive margins.
Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) has already absorbed major financial damage from its unsuccessful EV expansion. The business announced a $19.5 billion write-down. It includes $8.5 billion tied to canceled EV models, after abandoning several programs and replacing the fully electric F-150 Lightning with an extended-range model. CEO Jim Farley directly linked the strategic reversal to the sales decline that followed the $7,500 tax credit’s expiration. Ford’s energy-storage pivot may recover some value, but it cannot quickly offset the capital that the original EV strategy destroyed.
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) is carrying excess battery capacity and substantial restructuring costs after overestimating EV demand. The company recorded a $6 billion charge, including a $4.2 billion cash charge tied mainly to canceled supplier commitments and settlements. GM’s EV sales also dropped 43% in the fourth quarter of 2025 after the federal credit expired. Although Ultium recalled some Lordstown employees, approximately 600 workers remain on indefinite layoff. It shows the continuing gap between GM’s battery capacity and current demand.
Hedge Fund Sentiment
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) hedge fund count fell to 75 in the second quarter from 77 in the first, with position value dropping to $4.87 billion from $6.08 billion, according to Insider Monkey’s database. Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) held steady at 50 hedge fund holders with position value slipping to $1.02 billion from $1.12 billion, while Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s holder count fell to 116 from 123 even as position value rose to $23.79 billion from $23.09 billion.
Conclusion
Trump’s EV-policy reversal creates different risks and opportunities for each automaker. Tesla could make its relative U.S. market position solid as Ford and GM retreat, but weaker industry demand and the loss of consumer subsidies threaten its volumes and margins. Ford has developed the clearest alternative use for its battery assets through energy storage, although its $19.5 billion write-down shows the scale of its earlier miscalculation. GM retains the strongest EV optionality among the traditional automakers, but its $6 billion charge and underused battery plants continue to weigh on returns.
Overall, Tesla appears to be the clearest relative beneficiary because legacy rivals have reduced direct EV competition. However, Ford and GM possess greater flexibility because they can shift toward profitable gasoline vehicles, hybrids, and energy storage. Investors should distinguish between gaining share and generating profitable growth: Tesla may capture a larger portion of the remaining EV market, but all three companies still face the financial consequences of weaker U.S. electric-vehicle demand.
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