On August 10, Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:FERG) reported results for the quarter ended June 30, and the numbers show a company growing straight through a soft housing market. Sales rose 4.6% to $8.8 billion, and management lifted its outlook for the full year. But profit grew more slowly than sales, and that gap is what makes this report worth a closer look.
Non-Residential Does the Heavy Lifting
The strongest engine was non-residential work, where US revenue jumped 8% on share gains in what management called a mixed market. Large capital projects are part of the story, with open order volumes growing and bidding activity strong, so there is a pipeline behind the current numbers. Housing, roughly half of revenue, is the weak spot. Yet residential sales still rose 2% in the US even though new construction is weak and repair work is soft, which means Ferguson is beating its markets rather than riding them.
Capital deployment is the second pillar. Ferguson closed five acquisitions in the quarter, and on July 13, it announced a deal for FWI Holdings, known as FloWorks, an industrial distributor of valves and flow-control products that is expected to close in the third quarter. The eight deals announced this year carry about $1.4 billion in annualized revenue, a second growth path alongside organic sales. Net debt sits at 1.3 times adjusted EBITDA, a level management calls strong. The company also returned cash, buying back $202 million of stock in the quarter and declaring a $0.89 dividend payable October 7 to holders of record on August 21. Management raised its full-year sales outlook to mid-single-digit growth, before counting FloWorks.
Sales Grew Faster Than Profit
Start with the gap between sales and profit. Adjusted operating profit rose 2.9%, behind the 4.6% sales gain, and gross margin slipped 20 basis points to 31.0%. Ferguson notes that last year’s gross margin was temporarily lifted by the timing of supplier price increases, which is fair context, but the direction is still down. Reported earnings per share of $3.43 rose 6.9%, while the adjusted figure of $3.39 grew a slower 5.3%.
Then there are the soft spots. About half of revenue comes from residential markets that management describes as subdued, so a 2% gain there is modest. Canada’s sales slipped 1.9%, with a business divestment outweighing organic growth, and management calls the market there challenging, especially in residential. Management also describes the economic environment as uncertain, and the margin part of the guidance raise is small. The low end of the adjusted operating margin range moved from 9.4% to 9.5%, while the top stayed at 9.8%. The guidance also leaves out FloWorks, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA is 1.3 times, against 1.2 times a year ago.
Funds Hold, Shorts Stay Quiet
Ferguson was held by 85 hedge funds in the most recent quarter, unchanged from the quarter before. Big holders are neither piling in nor heading for the exits. Short interest is 3.21% of the float, which is low and suggests little organized skepticism. Some of it may be hedging rather than a bet against the company. At 17.06 times forward earnings, as of September 18, the price assumes profits keep growing, even as margins slipped.
Can Profit Catch Up?
Ferguson has shown it can grow when housing is not helping, and it is buying more growth on top. What remains open is whether that growth turns into profit at the same pace. The bulls need non-residential strength and the acquisitions to keep lifting profit even with margins under pressure. The bears are watching whether soft residential demand, a shrinking Canada, and an economy management itself calls uncertain start to hit sales before profit catches up.
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