Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:UBER) has built one of the world’s largest mobility marketplaces, connecting riders with drivers across billions of trips. However, autonomous vehicles could fundamentally change the ride-hailing industry by removing the human driver from the equation. For the ride-hailing giant, that could be both an opportunity and a threat.
The question is whether Uber’s existing competitive advantages are strong enough to survive this transition. Uber’s financials remain in good shape, with gross bookings rising 22% year over year to more than $58 billion in the second quarter of 2026. GAAP operating income increased a solid 30% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, pushing Uber’s operating margin to 13.3%, compared with roughly 11.5% a year earlier. Trailing 12-month free cash flow surpassed $10 billion.
Moreover, the stock appears cheap relative to the broader sector. Uber trades at 16.04x forward earnings, trading at a discount relative to the sector median of 22.40x. If you bring Uber’s growth into the equation, that comparison looks much better.
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Bull Case
Uber’s biggest potential moat in a race for autonomous driving could be its extensive network of riders. That network effect could come in handy, as even if robotaxi companies can build autonomous vehicles, those vehicles still need customers. Uber reported processing 3.9 billion trips in just the second quarter of 2026, up 18% year-over-year.
However, Uber is not simply waiting for autonomous vehicle companies to bring their technology to its platform. The company is also investing in the autonomous ecosystem, including its AV Labs initiative, which uses sensor-equipped vehicles to collect driving data for its autonomous vehicle partners. Uber has also committed capital toward building autonomous fleets, which includes a partnership with Rivian that could eventually put up to 50,000 robotaxis on its platform.
That demand is likely to make Uber an attractive commercialization platform for autonomous vehicle companies. Uber’s early autonomous rides are also showing promising levels of usage. The company said vehicles operating through its platform are already completing roughly 25 to 30 trips per day. Uber believes its large customer base can help keep these vehicles busy. Optimum utilization is important for making autonomous fleets economically viable.
Apart from Rivian, Uber is also building relationships with multiple autonomous vehicle companies. The company expects to be in 15 autonomous vehicle markets by the end of 2026, up from seven currently, with partnerships involving companies including Waymo, Nuro, Lucid, Zoox, Wayve and others.
Hence, Uber does not necessarily need to develop the best autonomous driving technology itself as long as autonomous automobile makers need its platform to access those billions of rides.
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Bear Case
That said, the biggest threat is that autonomous vehicles could eventually want to weaken Uber’s role as a middleman. Companies developing robotaxis could build their own consumer platforms and establish direct relationships with riders, even though that might take some time.
Uber’s sheer size does not necessarily mean it has an unbreakable network effect. The company itself points out that having more riders and drivers is only part of the equation. Service quality and having the right balance between riders and available vehicles can matter just as much. That means a smaller competitor could still compete effectively in certain markets if it can offer a better experience.
There is also considerable uncertainty over how quickly autonomous vehicles will become a meaningful part of Uber’s business. The company says autonomous vehicles currently account for less than 0.5% of its overall trip volume, while adoption is likely to be slower than software-based AI because autonomous vehicles are physical and heavily regulated.
Conclusion
Uber’s moat could actually become stronger as robotaxis become more common. Its huge customer base and established marketplace could make it an attractive platform for autonomous vehicle companies looking to reach riders. However, that moat could be challenged by whether autonomous vehicle companies will continue to need Uber or eventually decide to go directly to consumers. For Uber, the key may be making itself too valuable to bypass.
Market Sentiment
As of Q2 2026, 151 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database held Uber, down slightly from 153 at the end of Q1. However, the value of their holdings was almost unchanged, at $9.33 billion versus $9.30 billion in the previous quarter.
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This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
