ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) reported about €3.3 billion of installed-base management sales in its September quarter. Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) reported $2.47 billion of customer-support-related revenue and other in its June quarter. The labels describe different mixtures. ASML and Lam Research both feature in our 10 Best Semiconductor Stocks to Buy for the Next Decade. Both have large businesses supporting equipment already inside chip factories. That can soften a new-equipment slowdown, but calling all of that revenue recurring would give investors too much confidence.
Image: Courtesy of ASML
Start with what each category includes
ASML defines installed-base management as net service and field-option sales. Its customers need to maintain costly lithography machines, while upgrades can improve their productivity. Yet upgrades remain spending decisions; the entire category should not be treated as an annually contracted subscription.
Lam’s category combines service, spares, upgrades and non-leading-edge Reliant equipment. That last component is equipment sales. The reported support share therefore cannot establish how much purely recurring service revenue Lam has.
Using rounded ASML figures, installed-base sales represented about 28% of quarterly revenue. Lam’s broader category represented 36.8%.
Stress the revenue mix, not an invented subscription base
Assume new-system revenue falls 20% while each support category stays flat. ASML’s total sales would decline about 14.4%; Lam’s would decline 12.6%. If support revenue also falls 10%, the declines become about 17.2% and 16.3%.
Lam’s reported mix produces the smaller decline in this exercise, but its equipment content makes a flat support assumption less secure. Neither company discloses enough here to calculate a directly comparable service-only cushion. Lower factory utilization can also reduce demand for spares and usage-related work.
Technology leadership still needs a sensible price
ASML benefits from advanced lithography transitions; Lam benefits from increasingly complex deposition and etch processes. Both face export restrictions and delayed customer investments. Our TSMC-ASML cash comparison explains why a strong cash quarter can also reflect payment timing rather than a permanently larger earnings base.
At October 16 equity values, trailing cash after capital expenditure cost about 26 times for ASML and 68 times for Lam. Working-capital movements make those historical multiples imperfect measures of sustainable cash; the service-mix exercise cannot justify a stock-price target.
Export rules can affect both systems and support. Our ASML geographic-risk analysis explains why a wider customer footprint is not complete protection.
Q2 2026 hedge-fund holders rose to 140 from 133 for ASML and to 139 from 123 for Lam. Fisher increased ASML shares 3%, while Arrowstreet reduced Lam shares 7%. ASML’s September 30 short interest was 0.37% of float.
Both installed bases provide business opportunities beyond new-tool shipments. Investors should favor evidence of resilient service collections and profitable upgrades over the largest reported support percentage. Lam’s broader category offers a useful buffer, but the disclosures do not establish that it has the stronger recurring-revenue franchise.
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