On September 9, 2026, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASO) posted second-quarter results for the period ended August 1, 2026. Net sales rose 3.0% to $1.65 billion, adjusted earnings per share climbed 19.1% to $2.31 from $1.94, and gross margin widened 440 basis points to 40.4%. Management lifted full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $6.50 to $6.90 and gross margin guidance to 35.5% to 36.0%. What the quarter did not deliver was a positive comp, which fell 0.4%.
Why Wall Street Is Raising Targets but Staying Cautious
Telsey Advisory came away seeing nothing that changes the thesis, calling the risk-reward attractive and pushing its target on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. to $63 from $60 while staying at Outperform.
Wells Fargo’s Ike Boruchow described himself as cautiously optimistic at current levels, arguing that both the quarter itself and management’s forward commentary delivered upside surprise; his target moved to $55 from $50, though the rating stayed Equal Weight.
Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih focused on the fact that Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. held its fiscal 2026 sales and comp guidance despite a tougher consumer backdrop and sequential demand deceleration, lifting her target to $53 from $50 at Equal Weight.
Supporting the case: e-commerce sales grew 12.8%, Sports and Recreation rose 6%, myAcademy loyalty membership passed 15 million, and the company raised adjusted free cash flow guidance to $300 million to $350 million after repurchasing $182.1 million of stock in the first half.
UBS is not convinced the earnings growth is the right kind. The firm called margins and cash flow encouraging but questioned whether Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. can sustain growth through actual sales and demand rather than cost control and buybacks, a distinction it says caps the multiple; the target went to $58 from $55 at Neutral.
BMO Capital, which initiated coverage on Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. at Market Perform with a $42 target a day earlier, argued that after four years of failing to drive positive comps in a favorable athletic backdrop, the path gets harder now that the category is slowing. BMO expected management to cut its FY26 outlook at the print, which did not happen.
The underlying figures back some of the caution: traffic from households earning under $50,000 fell high single digits, footwear sales declined 1%, inventory rose 4.4% year-over-year, and the 510 basis points of tariff refund benefit inside that 40.4% gross margin will not repeat.
What The Smart Money Sees
Royce & Associates held the largest position among hedge funds, 1.08 million shares worth $51 million as of the second quarter of 2026, a 5% increase. Hood River Capital Management, the next largest holder, trimmed 2% to $42 million.
Overall hedge fund ownership fell to 29 funds from 31 between the first and second quarters of 2026. Shares trade at 8.16 times forward earnings as of September 15, 2026, while short interest sits at 23.30% of float.
Takeaway
Every analyst who touched the stock after the print raised their number, and almost none of them raised their rating. That gap is the story: the beat was real, but the 40.4% gross margin benefited substantially from a tariff refund that will not repeat. With a 23.30% short float against an 8.16 forward multiple, the market is treating the raised guidance as something Academy still has to prove in the back half.
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