Humira, the drug that built AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), sold $756 million last quarter, down 35.9%. And yet total revenue still climbed 10.2% to $16.99 billion.
That’s what replacing a blockbuster looks like when the replacements actually show up. AbbVie sells immunology medicines for conditions like psoriasis, Crohn’s disease, and rheumatoid arthritis, along with neuroscience drugs, cancer treatments, and Botox and other aesthetics products through its Allergan unit. Humira’s slide is old news. The real question is whether the stock’s price fairly reflects how long the successors can keep growing, and what AbbVie is spending to line up the next ones.
The Heirs are Growing Fast
Skyrizi brought in $5.505 billion in the quarter, up 24.4%. Rinvoq added $2.525 billion, up 24.5%. Together they lifted immunology sales to $8.786 billion, up 15.1% even with Humira dragging. Neuroscience contributed $3.228 billion, up 20.3%. Oncology slipped 1.5% to $1.650 billion, and aesthetics barely moved, up 0.3% to $1.282 billion. Growth is concentrated, in other words. Immunology’s boom reaches well beyond one company. Find another stock riding the same trend.
Adjusted earnings per share (which strip out acquisition-related amortization and similar items) came in at $3.65, up 22.9%. The GAAP figure was $2.03, and part of that gap is a one-time item: acquired research and milestone expenses cost $0.17 per share in the quarter. Management guides to full-year adjusted EPS of $13.87 to $14.07. HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar sees more room ahead as Skyrizi and Rinvoq win additional approved uses.
A $10.9 billion Bet on Act Three
AbbVie recently closed its purchase of Apogee Therapeutics at $135.11 per share in cash, for a total equity value of $10.9 billion. Apogee’s lead candidate, zumilokibart, helped about two-thirds of patients reach significant skin clearance at 16 weeks in a phase 2 trial. It’s an early-stage bet on a future immunology franchise, and it isn’t free in the meantime.
What Happens When the Patents Run Out?
Here’s the objection, and it’s a fair one. Skyrizi and Rinvoq, the two drugs doing the growing, are both expected to lose patent exclusivity within the next decade. AbbVie has lived through this once with Humira, and the 35.9% drop shows how it feels. A rival pharma giant is juggling its own patent expirations. See how its setup compares. Apogee adds a near-term cost. The company says the deal will reduce adjusted EPS by $0.14 this year and approximately $0.46 in 2027, with accretion beginning in 2032. Shareholders are funding a payoff that’s years away.
Part of the answer is already visible: Humira’s decline hasn’t stopped revenue from growing, and neuroscience’s 20.3% gain suggests a second leg is forming. But the patent clock is real, and it remains the main risk.
What’s the Market Paying for?
At a forward P/E of 18.97, as of October 6, investors are paying nearly $19 for every $1 of expected earnings. The sector sits at 18.84, so AbbVie trades essentially in line with its peers. Against its own five-year average of 14.51, though, it carries a clear premium. Expected EPS growth of 16.14% in 2027 is what that premium leans on. The company’s own flag of a roughly $0.46 Apogee drag that year makes it worth watching how much of that cushion consensus already absorbs.
Sentiment is supportive without being euphoric. Hedge fund ownership edged up to 88 funds from 87 in the prior quarter, and short interest stands at just 1.23%, so few investors are betting against the stock. These 10 healthcare stocks keep showing up in the same conversations as AbbVie.
Fair Price, Real Catch
The evidence points to a stock that’s fairly priced rather than cheap: the sector multiple for growth that has outrun the Humira decline. That setup suits long-term investors comfortable with pipeline dependence and a patent cliff years out. A sharp slowdown in Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth from the roughly 24% pace of the latest quarter, while Apogee costs keep weighing on earnings, would change the picture.
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