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Were Hedge Funds Right About Souring On YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF)?

The Insider Monkey team has completed processing the quarterly 13F filings for the December quarter submitted by the hedge funds and other money managers included in our extensive database. Most hedge fund investors endured a torrid quarter, which certainly propelled them to adjust their equity holdings so as to maintain the desired risk profile. As a result, the relevancy of these public filings and their content is indisputable, as they may reveal numerous high-potential stocks. The following article will discuss the smart money sentiment towards YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

Is YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) the right pick for your portfolio? Investors who are in the know are getting less bullish. The number of bullish hedge fund bets fell by 2 recently. Our calculations also showed that YPF isn’t among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds. YPF was in 15 hedge funds’ portfolios at the end of December. There were 17 hedge funds in our database with YPF positions at the end of the previous quarter.

So, why do we pay attention to hedge fund sentiment before making any investment decisions? Our research has shown that hedge funds’ small-cap stock picks managed to beat the market by double digits annually between 1999 and 2016, but the margin of outperformance has been declining in recent years. Nevertheless, we were still able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the market by 32 percentage points since May 2014 through March 12, 2019 (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that underperformed the market by 10 percentage points annually between 2006 and 2017. Interestingly the margin of underperformance of these stocks has been increasing in recent years. Investors who are long the market and short these stocks would have returned more than 27% annually between 2015 and 2017. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 in our quarterly newsletter. Even if you aren’t comfortable with shorting stocks, you should at least avoid initiating long positions in our short portfolio.

BAUPOST GROUP Seth Klarman

We’re going to go over the fresh hedge fund action regarding YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF).

What have hedge funds been doing with YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF)?

Heading into the first quarter of 2019, a total of 15 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of -12% from the second quarter of 2018. Below, you can check out the change in hedge fund sentiment towards YPF over the last 14 quarters. So, let’s find out which hedge funds were among the top holders of the stock and which hedge funds were making big moves.

YPF

The largest stake in YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) was held by Baupost Group, which reported holding $80.3 million worth of stock at the end of September. It was followed by FinePoint Capital with a $50.3 million position. Other investors bullish on the company included Knighthead Capital, Millennium Management, and Redwood Capital Management.

Seeing as YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) has experienced a decline in interest from the entirety of the hedge funds we track, logic holds that there exists a select few hedge funds who sold off their full holdings last quarter. It’s worth mentioning that Jody LaNasa’s Serengeti Asset Management cut the biggest stake of all the hedgies tracked by Insider Monkey, totaling about $1.5 million in stock. Ken Griffin’s fund, Citadel Investment Group, also said goodbye to its stock, about $1.1 million worth. These transactions are important to note, as total hedge fund interest fell by 2 funds last quarter.

Let’s also examine hedge fund activity in other stocks similar to YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF). These stocks are Perrigo Company (NYSE:PRGO), Healthcare Trust Of America Inc (NYSE:HTA), Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. (NYSE:PK), and Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP). This group of stocks’ market caps are closest to YPF’s market cap.

Ticker No of HFs with positions Total Value of HF Positions (x1000) Change in HF Position
PRGO 23 556413 2
HTA 17 394094 1
PK 17 482603 2
HP 27 428815 -6
Average 21 465481 -0.25

View table here if you experience formatting issues.

As you can see these stocks had an average of 21 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $465 million. That figure was $214 million in YPF’s case. Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (NYSE:HP) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Healthcare Trust Of America Inc (NYSE:HTA) is the least popular one with only 17 bullish hedge fund positions. Compared to these stocks YPF Sociedad Anonima (NYSE:YPF) is even less popular than HTA. Our calculations showed that top 15 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 21.3% through April 8th and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by more than 5 percentage points. Unfortunately YPF wasn’t in this group. Hedge funds that bet on YPF were disappointed as the stock returned 12.5% and underperformed the market. If you are interested in investing in large cap stocks, you should check out the top 15 hedge fund stocks as 12 of these outperformed the market.

Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.

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