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The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (MHP), Moody’s Corporation (MCO): After the Plunge, Is it Time to Buy This Stock?

On Feb. 5, the US Department of Justice announced that it would be seeking $5 billion in its civil lawsuit against the S&P credit rating agency, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE:MHP) , for “defrauding investors” during the financial crisis. The government essentially argued that the company had inflated the ratings and ignored the risks in an effort to get more business. The company denied any wrongdoing, and claimed that their opinions are protected under the First Ammendment. Despite the company’s denial, or the fact that fraud might be hard to prove, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE:MHP)’s stock plummeted.

The stock price has since recovered, but is still far from its pre-announcement levels. Many contrarian investors have jumped in and started buying shares, arguing that the market has overreacted. Could they be right? Is it wise to buy this stock now?

With regards to valuation, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE:MHP) has a P/E of 19.98, just about the market’s average, but slightly higher than its main competitor Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO). However, when factoring in future earnings estimates, McGraw’s forward P/E of 13.17 is attractive, and is also lower (albeit very slightly) than Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO). When adjusting for growth, McGraw’s PEG is just 1.08, lower, and therefore more attractive than not only Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO), but also the market average.

Analysts are moderately bullish on the stock: it has an average recommendation of 1.80 (buy/overweight), and an average price target of $58, which implies that the stock has an almost 22% upside potential from current price levels. Both average recommendation and implied upside from price targets are more attractive at The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE:MHP)’s than at Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO). It should also be noted that these analyst averages are not calculated exclusively from outdated reports that were published before the announcement of the lawsuit. Both The Benchmark Company and Barclays published reports in February, after the announcement, that, while lowering price targets from $64 to $57 and $54, respectively, rated the stock either a ‘buy’ (Benchmark Co) or an ‘overweight’ (Barclays).

The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (NYSE:MHP) pays a dividend of $1.12 to its shareholders, which works out to a yield of 2.35% (higher than Moody’s Corporation (NYSE:MCO) 1.57%). A dividend has been paid to McGraw’s shareholders since August 1987.

P/E Fw P/E PEG Avg PT (% implied upside) Avg Rec Div Yield Performance YTD
MHP 19.98 13.17 1.08 $58 (+21.95%) 1.80 2.35% -12.48%
MCO 16.76 13.20 1.26 $50.88 (-0.14%) 2.60 1.57% 1.70%

The Bearish and the Bullish Cases

On one hand, the most obvious bearish argument is that if the government ends up winning the lawsuit, the company would be shattered if forced to pay $5 billion. Considering that McGraw-Hill’s net income for last year was a little under $1 billion, a $5 billion fine could wipe the company off the map. Futhermore, even if the case is settled or the company exhonerated, the loss of credibility arising from the situation could harm McGraw’s businessess, as it runs precisely on the ability to offer objective, credible ratings.