Polls Are Biased: Trump Will Again Deliver A Stunning Upset (Update 1)

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16. Iowa

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points

Actual result: Trump won by 9.4 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 1.3 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.4 points

Trump: 95 – Biden:101

17. Kansas

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points

Actual result: Trump won by 20.6 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 9.5 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.9 points

Trump: 101 – Biden:101

18. Kentucky

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points

Actual result: Trump won by 29.8 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.3 points

Trump: 109 – Biden:101

19. Louisiana

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points

Actual result: Trump won by 19.6 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 14.8 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18 points

Trump: 117 – Biden:101

20. Maine

Maine isn’t a “winner-take-all” state. The winner of the popular vote will get 2 electoral votes and the winner of each of two districts will get 1 electoral vote. It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. The only competitive race is in the second district. Fivethirtyeight thinks Trump will win this district by 0.9 points. We agree. Here are the stats for the entire state:

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points

Actual result: Trump lost by 3.0 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points

Trump: 118 – Biden:104

21. Maryland

Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points

Actual result: Trump lost by 26.4 points

Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.7 points

Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31.5 points

Trump: 118 – Biden:114

Click to continue reading and see the rest of the estimates.

Disclosure: This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.

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