P3 Health Partners Inc. (NASDAQ:PIII) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Atul Kavthekar: That is in reference to the settlement, the final settlement that is associated with ’22 dates of service that is considered ’23 revenue payment. And so the expectation, and we’re working with our auditors to make sure that, that’s auditable and recognized in the year in which we believe it should be. And that’s consistent with the way we’ve treated in the past is to be able to recognize that. And that’s just sort of our rough estimate. That’s a constrained estimate that we’ve arrived at based on a couple of years now of history and performance. So that’s what that’s in reference to, Gary.

Gary Taylor: Okay. But that’s you’re still treating that on a cash basis. Basically, it’s not anywhere the accruals so far.

Atul Kavthekar: So far, and Sherif had mentioned this at the end of the last call, in fact. But today, we’re treating it all as cash basis. What we feel is, it is more informative and it is easier for our investors to understand if it’s treated on an accrual basis in the period in which it’s to be recognized. And that’s something that we’re working with the auditors on. It’s not really a question of whether or not it’s ’23 revenue. The question is, are we able to audit it and actually recognize it on an accrual basis before the end of the year.

Gary Taylor: But this is different from the sweep revenue, for example, you booked in the 2Q? Is it different?

Atul Kavthekar: It is the same. The sweep revenue that was booked in the second quarter is related to ’21 dates of service that is really ’22 revenue. But since the ’22 year was closed, that was recognized in this current year. So if you recall, in ’21, we booked essentially two sweeps. In ’22, we booked essentially no sweeps. And what we are trying to do is to get back into much more of a systematic basis of accruing this once a year. And this is the year we think we can demonstrate that from an audit standard that we can get back on track to accruing it again in the year that it should be recognized. Is that helpful?

Gary Taylor: Yes, I think so. And so I was just trying to piece together a little bit of seasonality. But if that would have showed up this quarter, EBITDA would be better, fourth quarter EBITDA would be worse, that would reflect the typical seasonal pattern in your profitability, I think. Is that correct?

Atul Kavthekar: I think that’s correct, Gary. And going forward, but I think here’s the key. Going forward, what it does is I think it just takes — it sort of smooths out revenue to a degree. And I think it just makes it a little bit easier to understand. And that’s the whole point of this is, to get away from some of this choppiness that makes it more challenging to understand the model.

Gary Taylor: Last one for me. I mean the 2024 EBITDA guidance is pretty impressive, well above consensus. I know you don’t want to give us a whole lot on ’24 at this point. But that’s going to be driven by, obviously, medical margin improvement, but also depends on the size of the cohort you bring in. And at this point of the year, I think you’d have pretty good line of sight on new payer contracts, new physician affiliations, et cetera. So I guess maybe could you answer this, do we think about — you’d kind of slowed down the growth in ’23 as you focused on medical margin. Is ’24 a year where we think the new cohorts materially start accelerating again in size? Or do we think fairly static in size? Or give us sort of any sense on what you’re thinking about the direction of revenue growth next year.

Sherif Abdou: Yes. So we expect meaningful growth in revenue and membership and improvement on EBITDA, as we shared with you in 2024.

Operator: Our next question comes from Ryan Daniels with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Ryan Daniels: I’m going to continue with that trail of questioning. And I’m curious at this point in the year, how visible the growth in at-risk lives is for you, meaning do you have new partners or new payers signed? And if we take that in the move with more ACO REACH lives, kind of how visible is the member growth at this point in the year as we look to 2024?