P3 Health Partners Inc. (NASDAQ:PIII) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator: The next question comes from Josh Raskin with Nephron Research. Please go ahead.

Josh Raskin: I got a couple as well. I think I heard affiliated PCPs was 2,700. Correct me if I’m wrong, if that’s not the updated number. And if you got a total at-risk membership number for the quarter as well?

Bill Bettermann: Yes. Thanks for that question. So that’s right. So we are just a little over 2,700 PCPs in the overall platform.

Josh Raskin: And members?

Bill Bettermann: And total members are about 110,000 members year-to-date, Medicare at-risk.

Sherif Abdou: There’s a lot more on the platform, but if you just count at-risk population, the 110,000 and there’s 4,000 or 5,000 that on value-based shared savings, shared risk with Humana and Blue Cross in Arizona. So you can put the Medicare at 114,000.

Josh Raskin: Okay. Got you. And then can you talk about negotiations with payers for 2024? I assume you’re mostly set on all of that. I’m specifically thinking about how you’re dealing with those changes to the risk model that you mentioned? And are your cap payments increasing, are they cutting out some benefits? I’m just curious on data like that. And then also curious if you’re having conversations with any new payers at this point that you don’t currently work with.

Sherif Abdou: Yes. So we’re pleased to announce that we did sign a multiyear multistate contract with SCAN Health, which we did not have a contract with before. And as probably the only new payer that we did not have any contract with. We expanded our relationship with Aetna in Oregon. We expanded our relationship with Atrio, the local health plan to multiple new counties in Oregon. And I think we haven’t signed anything new in California, but we will.

Josh Raskin: Okay. And then, but how are the negotiations just in terms of how are they trying to keep you whole in light of the reimbursement changes for 2024? Are you getting an extra percent or 2 on the cap payments or just any color on that would be helpful, too.

Sherif Abdou: Yes. So the biggest driver for the percentage of premium that as you improve the rev that value of that percentage of premium would increase. As you saw, we had a 17% increase in our PMPM year-over-year. So there’s no change in the percentage of premium that we said we have a multiyear contract that’s not open for negotiation. Most of them aren’t this year. However, we participated in — two things about the benefit. We participated in putting the benefits that impact our — and I think vast majority of health plan. We’re very logical and very supportive and very mindful of that impact downstream on us. Second, we have a language to protect us in the medical benefits change, and that will adjust our premium if there’s any adjustment, adjusted only upward, not downward.

Josh Raskin: Okay. Got you. Got it. That’s helpful. And then just to sneak one last one in. It sounded like $60 million of EBITDA expected in 2024 on the persistent members. So if you think about the $20 million to $40 million, sort of the expectation would be to lose $20 million to $40 million on sort of the new cohort of members. I’m just curious, how does that compare on a PMPM basis maybe relative to what new members are losing in 2023?

Sherif Abdou: So I’m not sure we want to go back to ’23, and I’ll have Atul to either answer that or I can get back to you on this. As far as ’24, the only thing that we’re giving right now, Josh, is the EBITDA guidance. We’ll have a lot more details by January, maybe JPMorgan Conference or so.

Operator: Our next question comes from Gary Taylor with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Gary Taylor: Just a couple for me. I do just want to make sure I understand the timing issue you were referring to from 3Q to 4Q. So this is $15 million to $20 million of non-delegated revenue that’s going to go revenue line straight to EBITDA that doesn’t run through any of your health plan receivables, and that’s just primarily from one plan? Just is there any more you can tell us about that?