Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Curtis Nagle: It was decreasing just again on a sort of [central inventory] (ph) this question on a volatile market right, three months is a long time, that’s sort of the point.

Dod Fraser: I think that’s where if you sort of track through to the price changes you see in February and March, those are 100, 200 basis point positives. And so I think that’s where we are setting our spread so that we feel comfortable we will hit those — that annual contribution margin target that we’ve guided to, that 5% to 7%, so that those new acquisitions will perform in line with our targets.

Curtis Nagle: Okay.

Carrie Wheeler: And Curtis, did you have a follow-on question related to marketing?

Curtis Nagle: Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I did. So it sounds like marketing spend was either increasing or shifting from 3Q, to 4Q. I couldn’t quite tell, because the fixed costs are going up a bit, quarter-to-quarter. So just hoping to square that and what type of marketing are we putting in the market?

Christy Schwartz: Hi, Curtis, it’s Christy. So on marketing, basically our adjusted OpEx, there’s three main components, marketing, fixed cost, variable SG&A. Those are all relatively flat between Q3 and what we’re guiding to for Q4. In the letter, and I think in the prepared remarks as well, I mentioned that there was some shift between 3Q and 4Q. And that’s just some expenses that we expected in 3Q that are going to actually come through in 4Q. It’s not specific to marketing. The other thing about the guide to the $120 million in fixed, or sorry, adjusted OpEx — total adjusted OpEx, that’s the dynamic that we’ve seen in the past, which is when we rebuild inventory, especially at a high rate compared to resales, holding costs that will eventually move to contribution profit when that inventory is sold through, burden adjusted OpEx as the inventory is growing.

And so that’s some of the uptick you’re seeing in Q4. You plan to lean into paid marketing a bit starting in Q1.

Carrie Wheeler: Yeah, I mean, just to add on to that, I mean the consistent motion for us throughout the course of the year, given what Dod said earlier about listing volumes in Q4, is that it’s a relatively quiet marketing quarter for us. And we lean into more marketing spend in Q1. We expect to do so next year along with the fact that our spreads are level right now, we can make those investments in a cost-effective way. So that’s a pretty natural motion for us.

Curtis Nagle: Okay, thanks very much, I appreciate it.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dae Lee with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Dae Lee: Great. Thanks for taking the questions. I’m sorry if this has already been answered. On, [first one on NAR] (ph), is it right to think that if buyer agent commission changes, it’ll be contribution, profit dollar neutral for you guys? And then secondly, I know you guys gave some color on your plans for early 2024. I’m just curious what kind of macro environment you guys are embedding in your plans. And if current rate environment kind of holds into 2024, do you still target achieving the stead state $10 billion revenue and net income positive sometime in 2024?

Carrie Wheeler: Hey, Dave. Let me get the first part on the NAR stuff and then I’ll hand over to Dod to talk about the macro and maybe Christy will follow up with breakeven, [will do a brief here] (ph). On the first part, which is the NAR part, your question was, would it be margin neutral to us if the buyer broker commission were to come down. And that’s our view. Again, that’s a cost item for us. It’s not a revenue item. And so we think, worst case, it’s neutral to us from a margin perspective. That was easier. Dod, do you want to take the macro question?