Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Dod Fraser: Yep. So let’s, like, first off, let’s just sort of step back and look at what the year’s been like. So 2023, still — we’re still seeing 4 million homes being sold in the US annually. To your point, we have observed low supply, but we’ve also paired that with resilient buyer demand. And so what we’ve seen is supply and demand largely staying in balance, which has resulted in home price stability. The metric we really focus a lot on is market clearance or the pace of resales. We look at that because it really helps reflect the balance of supply and demand. And if you look at the back of our shareholder letter, market clearance continues to be above historical periods. For the homes we’re buying today, we’ll be selling those into the spring selling season next year.

4Q acquisitions for us have historically been some of our strongest cohorts given the month-over-month home price tailwinds that start to show up in mid-February. So we will continue to monitor our leading indicators, monitor clearance, and be disciplined about balancing growth, margin and risk. But this has thus far been a stable house price market and that is in part why we’ve been able to retake our spreads down.

Ygal Arounian: Got it. I just — may just a follow-up on that. How does — what full year we’re talking about here, align with the lower clearance rates you’re seeing and lowering the prices? Right now, is it more of a seasonal factor? I just want to make sure I understand and make that bridge. Thanks.

Dod Fraser: Yep, very much a seasonal factor and part of our risk management framework. So we saw that softening and wanted to stay in line with our clearance targets. And so to your point, that is a short-term effect. And if you sort of roll forward the clock another month or two, November and December, is a very, like, you’ll see market new listings go down 50% between October and December. And so both supply and demand shift in a significant way for November and December. People don’t want to move during the holidays. So it’s very much a short-term, near-term phenomenon. And I think if you look again at those charts in the back, from a price perspective, a nominal home price perspective, that continues to show stability, really in line with what we’ve seen in prior years.

Ygal Arounian: Okay, thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Curtis Nagle: Great, thanks very much. Maybe just kind of tacking on — and Nick’s points just in terms of thinking about, I guess, the setup for ’24, so rates high, clearance rates lower, I guess, some of that seasonal. But why not kick back the buying just a little bit. So, I mean, look, things are obviously super volatile. So, maybe lower some of the inventory risk and again, just such a soft market. And then just as a follow up, could you give a little more color on the marketing spend? Sounds like that’s to gear up, I think, spring selling season next year. But, yeah, more detail on that. Is that what drove the shift, I guess, into 4Q?

Dod Fraser: Well, just on the 4Q acquisitions, what we said was they would be sort of approximately 3,000, which is flat quarter-over-quarter. I also mentioned a moment ago, 4Q acquisitions historically are some of our strongest cohorts. I think it’s really important to remember that the homes that we’re buying right now we’ll be selling early next year into that very positive spring selling season. So I think starting with that, I think the — I mean, I couldn’t quite tell if you’re asking if we were — if we should be decreasing or increasing. From an increasing perspective, given those lifting volumes in the market, increasing volumes is hard given what I’ve mentioned about just new listings being down significantly in months like November and December.