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Oaktree Capital Management’s Research Paper (End of June)

An alternative asset management firm Oaktree Capital Management recently released its research paper with the title “Are There Still Winners in a Maturing Real Estate Cycle”. If you are interested you can download a copy of the report below. Oaktree Capital Management is an expert in distressed securities and credit-related investment opportunities. The firm is headquartered in Los Angeles, providing additional offices in New York, Stamford, Brentwood, Houston, Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, Dubai, Shanghai, Paris, Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Dublin, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt, and Sydney. It was founded in 1995 by a group of individuals who worked at TCW Group, among which was the fund’s Co-Chairman, Howard Marks. Here is one small part of the mentioned recently published report:

KEY POINTS

  • Attractive investment opportunities can still be found in the real estate sector today, despite wide consensus that risks are rising as the U.S. economic expansion and commercial real estate cycle wear on.
  • Opportunities include commercial real estate in high-growth markets in the U.S., special situations investing in select European and Asian markets, and distressed credits.
  • In our view, investments in these areas can help a portfolio weather cyclical and localized risk in today’s late-cycle environment.

The United States is experiencing one of the longest economic recoveries on record. Steady GDP and jobs growth, coupled with moderate inflation and low interest rates, have characterized the U.S. econ-omy for a full decade now. These positive economic developments have supported increases in real estate values that have far outpaced inflation and offered investors significant appreciation and income along the way. At the same time, no one knows how long this environment will continue. The economic cycle may be nearing the later stages of its up-leg, prepar-ing for an inflection. The impact of a down-leg in the cycle could be especially significant in locations with excess real estate supply, difficult regulatory and tax environments, and limited access to affordable housing. Indicators that point to a maturing of the business and credit cycles include tight labor markets, increased risk taking and high levels of leverage across most credit-rating buckets (see Figure 1).”

You can download Oaktree Capital Management’s Research Paper here:

are-there-still-winners-in-a-maturing-real-estate-cycle

You can also see the list of our 2019 Q2 investor letters and download them on this page.

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